ACUS11 KWNS 271214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271213=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-271415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Areas affected...Central NC...Central VA...MD..DC

Concerning...Tornado Watch 276...

Valid 271213Z - 271415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 276 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes
continues from central NC through central and northern VA into MD.

DISCUSSION...Multicellular activity, with isolated supercells, which
dominated the storm mode across NC earlier, has now given way to a
line echo wave pattern. This suggest the primary severe hazard
downstream of this convective line will likely be damaging wind
gusts. Brief tornadoes remain possible, both within the line itself
as well as with any development ahead of it.

Low 70s dewpoints have reached far south-central VA, with gradual
northward advection of this low-level moisture still expected. This
will help further destabilize the air mass into northern VA. A
similar convective trends is anticipated here as farther south, with
an early multicellular mode giving way to a more linear mode with
time.

..Mosier.. 05/27/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_vDBxavK3LvgH9Pu7uIowowGFHvYhjE82R3rxeiZCtqF19WdduWV8LfFLBX9XcYd0chvoZETf= 2a_z2A_t34m9m6mP7Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 34967969 35388006 38317904 39477799 38807658 35407827
34967969=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 041804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041803=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of Western and Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041803Z - 042000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk of damaging wind and hail with afternoon
thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation has started earlier than
suggested in most morning CAM guidance across portions of Middle
Tennessee. Daytime heating and dew points in the 60s have resulted
in MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. RAP sounding analysis indicates
steep lapse rates through the profile, which will support a marginal
risk of severe hail though shear is minimal. Nickel size hail has
been observed with earlier storms near Dickson, TN. As storm
coverage increases through the afternoon, clustering will be likely
with upscale growth along outflows. This mode transition will lead
to a risk of locally damaging winds. Given weak flow and minimal
shear for organization, the threats will likely remain too isolated
for watch consideration.

..Thornton/Grams.. 06/04/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-9E-iey4D50RcZONl5ZCNfJkJt4vViPCgmpQfPRt06ci3QVUmcnXPboT6Awsv9BEF_v6bnLQr= uR4-KFiD6YlhSPo8is$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 36468873 36738849 36698737 36638702 36628695 36598585
36618543 36568494 36308491 36158500 35988499 35798528
35538561 35378574 35238589 35128593 34968592 34798573
34598560 34348580 34278620 34378661 34548694 34748735
35018783 35368851 36168888 36468873=20


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