ACUS11 KWNS 271001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271001=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-271200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Areas affected...Central NC...Central/Northern VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 271001Z - 271200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated over the
next few hours. A few supercells may develop, with damaging wind
gusts and tornadoes possible.

DISCUSSION...Increasing forcing for ascent is expected to gradually
spread eastward as the upper low over the Lower OH Valley progresses
eastward. Ongoing moisture advection across the region will help
destabilize the air mass from south to north over the next few
hours. This destabilization coupled with the increasing forcing for
ascent should lead to an increase in thunderstorm coverage over the
next several hours. Area VAD profiles and mesoanalysis also show a
35 kt low-level jet (in addition to moderate mid-level flow)
extending across the region.

A predominantly shallow, multicellular mode is anticipated, but,
given the moderate shear, a few supercells are also possible.
Primary threat with any of these storms would be damaging downburst
winds, but a few tornadoes are possible as well. As a result, a
Tornado Watch will likely be needed over portions of the region.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/27/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Co9oxmBzOF3tWPbABf4G8ujpP9bu8lbzC0VTpkgivgnPZg37JXSlDqGIZvPRTx3kOwpf1QU4= WtGuexb_ugOzpFHgnc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 35737948 36108004 37167944 38677878 39127825 38927740
38367727 37047731 36317763 35707864 35737948=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 032318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032318=20
TXZ000-040115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0933
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 032318Z - 040115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms spreading into the lower Rio Grande Valley may
gradually organize and eventually pose increasing risk for strong to
severe surface gusts while progressing toward lower Texas coastal
areas through 7-9 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent associated with a subtle short wave
impulse digging toward the lower Rio Grande Valley has likely
contributed to the widespread ongoing vigorous thunderstorm
development. Storms initiated across the higher terrain to the west
of the river, where seasonably moist (upper 60s/lower 70s F surface
dew points) southeasterly upslope flow has contributed to large
mixed-layer CAPE in the presence of steep lapse rates.=20=20

While light westerly ambient deep-layer mean flow has contributed to
advection off the higher terrain, a somewhat less moist and more
strongly capped environment with more modest CAPE prevails in lower
elevations, across the Rio Grande River through much of Deep South
Texas. Still, aided by pronounced veering of the wind fields in
lower through mid-levels, deep-layer shear is moderate to strong.=20
Coupled with the mid-level forcing for ascent, it is possible that
convection will continue to overcome the inhibition, and gradually
organize during the next few hours, particularly as strengthening
surface cold pools begin to consolidate. If/when this occurs, a
localized severe hail/downburst threat may transition to potential
for more widespread strong to severe gusts as activity progresses
toward lower Texas coastal areas into this evening.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_pA7jB4jJtZ5abjkJAt4RJ7HLZ5bNCE5XrVaVTrLB-43lv0getydqw7iO-19hra_rVo7iwv7-= mrjN9-Sz2Ql1DqPEO8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 27490033 28750020 28049710 26339711 25689837 26010065
26590102 27490033=20


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