ACUS11 KWNS 262201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262200=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kentucky into far
southern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262200Z - 270000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A recent uptick in storm organization suggests some
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado with
better structured storms late this afternoon and into this evening
across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Uncertainty on the
longevity and severity of the threat remains high as storms move
northeastward.

DISCUSSION...As of 22z regional radar showed several clusters of
storms ongoing across parts of central and eastern KY. Within these
clusters, periodic supercell and bowing structures have emerged over
the last hour suggesting some local enhancement of severe potential
over the next hour or two. Breaks in widespread cloud cover across
the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley have allowed for modest destabilization (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) this afternoon, and may continue
to support occasional stronger updrafts into early evening.
Deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) within expansive southerly mid-level
flow also remains supportive of occasional supercells and bowing
structures.

The ongoing uptick in storm organization and recent report of a
tornado in Bell County, KY suggests a few damaging wind gusts and a
brief tornado will be possible with the more organized storms into
early evening. The longevity of this threat however, remains highly
uncertain as convection continues northeastward toward the OH River.
Here, surface obs show a more stable environment north of the river
suggesting storms should decrease in intensity as they approach.
While conditions will be monitored, uncertainty on the longevity of
the severe threat suggests weather watch issuance is unclear.

..Lyons/Grams.. 05/26/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-lSTjQcH92BufpD6W-o2rYt1_XBlnzZEwcH8UDbx10HM-jt36Y1te_zlD7xqKPzKZvYseQ1iR= okjoJAHq4kSYz3MpGU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 36628383 37158417 37828434 38428421 38878390 39088355
39238323 39258298 39108275 38598264 38368266 37928267
37528278 37158299 36868320 36678349 36628383=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 262208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262208 COR
OHZ000-KYZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kentucky into far
southern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 262208Z - 270000Z

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A recent uptick in storm organization suggests some
potential for isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado with
better structured storms late this afternoon and into this evening
across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. Uncertainty on the
longevity and severity of the threat remains high as storms move
northeastward.

DISCUSSION...As of 22z regional radar showed several clusters of
storms ongoing across parts of central and eastern KY. Within these
clusters, periodic supercell and bowing structures have emerged over
the last hour suggesting some local enhancement of severe potential
over the next hour or two. Breaks in widespread cloud cover across
the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley have allowed for modest destabilization (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg) this afternoon, and may continue
to support occasional stronger updrafts into early evening.
Deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) within expansive southerly mid-level
flow also remains supportive of occasional supercells and bowing
structures.

The ongoing uptick in storm organization suggests a few damaging
wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible with the more
organized storms into early evening. The longevity of this threat
however, remains highly uncertain as convection continues
northeastward toward the OH River. Here, surface obs show a more
stable environment north of the river suggesting storms should
decrease in intensity as they approach. While conditions will be
monitored, uncertainty on the longevity of the severe threat
suggests weather watch issuance is unclear.

..Lyons/Grams.. 05/26/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7cS3e4Dfw75YYxzmWM2zKUHg2pKTp4BFr0Pm20JS9wOeQc-7xDv1vIp5oouPF5SKeeTK8EIzA= Sl5FmqnYiETXbguZN4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 36628383 37158417 37828434 38428421 38878390 39088355
39238323 39258298 39108275 38598264 38368266 37928267
37528278 37158299 36868320 36678349 36628383=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 030443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030442=20
TXZ000-030645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0929
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of south central Texas into adjacent portions
of the Rio Grande Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257...

Valid 030442Z - 030645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms overspreading areas near and
southwest through south of San Antonio continues to pose a risk for
severe wind and hail. However, this likely will gradually diminish
during the next few hours as it continues to progress
east-southeastward toward the middle Texas coastal plain.

DISCUSSION...A mesoscale convective vortex has become somewhat
better defined to the northwest of the San Antonio vicinity, and
strong southeasterly near-surface inflow has contributed to the
maintenance of vigorous convection in a narrow arcing band trailing southwestward into the vicinity of the Rio Grande River. Eastward
across San Antonio toward the coastal plain, increasing inhibition
associated with relatively warm and dry layers in the
lower/mid-troposphere is expected to result in weakening trends
during the next few hours. Based on recent trends in lightning
flash rates and radar imagery, this may gradually already be
underway, but perhaps not quite as rapidly as suggested by the
convection allowing model output.

..Kerr.. 06/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-zbK3mmskPyLJ1qtI8CiWbGTNOrR4BUfO7H-jWbkOEh6yNPyHtGgl7KQl9mDdH9E4exQjxEsq= -UqEEsT-C7t6LIqb14$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28999941 29739843 29849742 28979669 27939905 28740019
28999941=20


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