ACUS11 KWNS 261732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261731=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-261930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Areas affected...parts of southeast Indiana into central/eastern
Kentucky and southwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 261731Z - 261930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An uptick in storm coverage and intensity is possible
through mid afternoon. A conditional threat of severe exists,
contingent on storm intensification. Damaging gusts would be the
primary threat, and a couple of tornadoes would also be possible.
Convective trends will continue to be closely monitored for the need
of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Breaks in widespread cloud cover have allowed for
modest destabilization to take place ahead of an approaching cold
front. Temperatures have been able to warm into the low 70s F, with
mid 60s F dewpoints supporting 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Through morning,
thunderstorms across the OH/TN Valleys have slowly increased in
coverage and intensity per MRMS mosaic radar imagery. These storms
are increasing in number/strengthening in a low-CAPE environment
amid widespread 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. Modest directional
shear in the surface-700 mb layer, along with tropospheric speed
shear, are contributing to hodographs characterized by modest
low-level curvature which roughly straighten out through 10 km AGL.
As such, transient supercells and small bowing segments are expected
to be the predominant storm mode.

Given modest low-level shear, at least a few damaging gusts are
possible, particularly with bowing structures. Furthermore, a couple
of tornadoes may occur if more substantial, sustained supercell
structures can develop. Given the overall weak instability present,
the coverage of severe remains in question. Nonetheless, conditions
will continue to be closely monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/26/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5dk24RcLosRpZI3W91UQvg7FT0ZPNh7j6lY_-_75PNQjlAh4k-JsJ8vH_gDy67uTCpygFd67a= HUa8t3L3GBF2Bwm2po$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 36708757 39138526 39968400 39828336 39428309 38818279
38178275 37578300 37198338 36928392 36758445 36638614
36708757=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 022230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022229=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains and
Panhandle....western Oklahoma...adjacent southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...

Valid 022229Z - 030030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat with developing thunderstorm
activity may remain limited in the near term, but increasing
potential for strong surface gusts could still evolve through 7-9 PM
CDT. Trends will continue to be monitored for a new downstream
severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Developments during the past hour or two have included
increasing convection in a roughly linear band along the lee surface
trough across the eastern Texas Panhandle, where mixed-layer CAPE
has peaked at up to 2500 J/kg. An elongated, significant, but slow
moving, convective cold pool is approaching from the west, with
stronger lingering convection continuing primarily on its southern
flank, east of Plainview into areas northwest of Midland. Forcing
for ascent on the northern flank of the cold pool will merge with
the eastern Texas Panhandle convection, supporting further upscale
growth and a gradual eastward acceleration into western Oklahoma,
while the southern flank convection also progresses east.

Deep-layer mean ambient flow across much of this region is southerly
and modest (up to 20 kt) in strength, with vertical shear only
allowing for weak to modest easterly near-surface inflow. However,
given the potential instability of this inflow, there remains
potential for a gradual further intensification of convection.=20=20

It is possible that an intersection of the eastward advancing
outflow, with another stalling convective outflow boundary
near/south of the Interstate 40 corridor of western Oklahoma, could
become a focus for more vigorous thunderstorm development, and
perhaps an evolving mesoscale convective vortex. If this occurs, a
more substantive risk for strong surface gusts could still evolve
through 00-02Z.

..Kerr.. 06/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9tkJ4iMj88_2P4OU4Npfg9hxCRt17WjT_RX0nAYXf-Wnnx30Lgogo-O--uEv6BwdBZWSOJA4a= pYqBro6A2xqSYgj9KA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 34320118 34660087 35350075 35700089 36350095 36890109
37410105 37500073 37250025 36169955 35459829 33669923
32840124 33290162 33840128 34320118=20


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