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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0922

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 26, 2022 14:46:50
    ACUS11 KWNS 261446
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261446=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-261615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0922
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0946 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

    Areas affected...South AL...FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 274...

    Valid 261446Z - 261615Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 274 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for a brief tornado or two and locally damaging
    wind gusts will continue through the morning.

    DISCUSSION...Extensive convection has organized into multiple
    clusters across south AL into the FL Panhandle and northern Gulf of
    Mexico. Several embedded cells within the cluster offshore of
    Pensacola have shown periodic midlevel rotation, but thus far have
    weakened before moving onshore. Widespread cloudiness is noted over
    the FL Peninsula, limiting the potential for destabilization, but
    0-1 km SRH in excess of 150 m2/s2 (as noted in KEVX VWP) will
    support a brief tornado threat near the coast, should any stronger
    cells make it onshore.=20

    Further west, a loosely organized, outflow-driven cluster is ongoing
    east of Mobile. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible as this
    cluster moves eastward through the morning. A brief embedded tornado
    will also be possible with any embedded circulations, as this
    cluster merges with the storms ongoing near/south of Pensacola.=20

    To the east, another cluster of storms is ongoing near/south of the
    FL Big Bend. Increasing low-level flow/shear later this morning may
    result in an uptick in storm organization within this cluster,
    resulting in a threat of locally damaging wind gusts and/or a brief
    tornado with any stronger convection that is able to move onshore.

    ..Dean.. 05/26/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!70gfLSGbzmvao0FIBF2tqsDiOEgmOFKD1C6ngyz-NvuD4n8NYZPLnycZQYot4swZoMtVZeySV= mGueLUCaS6K65vwH4g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31228785 31558736 31348631 30578486 30338406 30068359
    29758364 29498427 29408530 29748676 30118784 30418831
    31048820 31228785=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 02, 2023 19:47:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 021947
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021946=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-022145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0922
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0246 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

    Areas affected...eastern Montana into far northeastern Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021946Z - 022145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginal wind and hail threat through the afternoon and
    early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across
    eastern Montana this afternoon. A few of these have shown recent
    upticks in intensity over the last hour, as MLCAPE around 1000-1500
    J/kg has slowly been advecting westward along southeasterly flow
    into eastern Montana. Deep layer shear around 25-30 kts is observed
    from KGGW and KBIL. Given the increasing instability and modest deep
    layer shear, a few more organized thunderstorms and a transient
    supercell or two will be possible through the afternoon and early
    evening. Threats will include hail and gusty winds. Given weak
    mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing for ascent (mainly terrain
    driven), the threat will likely remain localized. As such, a watch
    is unlikely to be needed.

    ..Thornton/Grams.. 06/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6VkAOQibcFd3-RFgUTHYwTfzBsJFuZUoQIU9ooK4Rv6g1vRT1k_4A_A_AC20s9m_fV64SWq35= 6TxDl_UYz1GnMvcLt0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46810812 47300797 47740737 47980663 48020595 47930551
    47310481 46940468 46120478 45880462 45290430 45160426
    44720437 44560462 44560555 45170687 45650732 46810812=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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