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ACUS11 KWNS 101558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101557=20
FLZ000-101830-
Mesoscale Discussion 0235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022
Areas affected...north-central portion of the FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 101557Z - 101830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Gradual destabilization today will probably result in
thunderstorm intensification and some risk for severe weather.=20
Isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts via linear convection
(perhaps from a few stronger embedded cells) will be the main
threat.
DISCUSSION...Late morning surface analysis places an outflow boundary/differential heating zone from immediately north of Tampa
Bay eastward to Cape Canaveral. Temperatures south of the boundary
are in the lower 80s with lower 70s dewpoints and near 70 degrees
north of the boundary. Visible satellite imagery shows cloud breaks
in the cirrus canopy which will aid surface heating as temperatures
rise into the 70s north of the boundary during the next few hours.=20
However, a thick cirrus canopy will likely move east/downwind over
the central/northern parts of the peninsula by mid afternoon as
thunderstorm activity continues east from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
and moves to the west coast.=20=20
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east
across the AL/GA/FL Panhandle vicinity this morning. As this
feature moves east-northeast, large-scale forcing for ascent will
continue towards the FL Peninsula and promote a continued eastward
movement of thunderstorm activity from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
into the FL Peninsula this afternoon. Forecast soundings show
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE due in part to moist low levels beneath -10
deg C at 500 mb. Effective shear around 50 kt will promote some
storm organization with the stronger updrafts. Expecting some
threat for wind damage to evolve with the stronger line-embedded
cells or small-scale arcing linear structures this afternoon. A
15-percent wind probability (Slight Risk) will be forthcoming in the
upcoming 1630 UTC convective outlook for eastern parts of this area.
The risk for a strong storm will likely begin west/north and shift
east/south later today.
..Smith/Hart.. 03/10/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qr80zo6Vy5GljyEgBkSdH3b-OqNPBESgJpL_Ltk8I12u99IN9kLkCg7berjxtY9JFTOJVi4G$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 28668304 29538164 29268091 27808027 27708296 28668304=20
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