ACUS11 KWNS 252347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252346=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-260145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Areas affected...central and western Illinois into eastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252346Z - 260145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A broken line of storms may produce sporadic wind damage
over the next few hours across Illinois and into eastern Iowa.
Coverage of expected severe is not expected to warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...Storms currently exist along a line from the southeast
corner of IA to near St. Louis and Mount Vernon. These storms are
embedded within southerly 40 kt deep-layer mean wind fields which is
aiding the rapid northward motions.

The airmass remains modestly unstable with around 750 J/kg MLCAPE,
but PWAT is averaging 1.50 to 1.75". Pockets of heating previously
led to steeper low-level lapse rates as well, and this along with
high PWAT may continue to favor strong downdrafts. Most wind gust
observations have averaged around 40 kt, and a continuation of this
appears reasonable given waning daylight. Otherwise, 0-1 SRH near
100 m2/s2 could briefly result in weak rotation in some of these
convective lines, but the overall tornado threat is expected to be
low.

..Jewell/Grams.. 05/25/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-d2HU-tgCGzXfkupsLlqMDTSR15Mx7YK21EvAPaxdeuHGMvn8q4Nq9JJ9xVj_8XEPqerz5GhL= W3Io0V-NpdE0e60Nwo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41079157 41689178 42079176 42379151 42469093 42449035
41818967 40968909 40038869 39408909 39218998 39739068
40259109 41079157=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 021823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021822=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-022015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0920
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...far western Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma
Panhandle...and far southwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021822Z - 022015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind risk possible through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Across the Oklahoma and far northern Texas Panhandle
heating and moistening has been ongoing, noted in surface
observations and the 18z sounding from Amarillo. This has begun to
slowly erode the inversion aloft at the base of the elevated mixed
layer and more stable air across the OK Panhandle into Kansas in the
wake of a line of storms that moved across the region this morning.
Storms ongoing just to the south have continued to move northward
along an outflow boundary and will extend outside of WW253. Shear
becomes less favorable across this region for tornadoes, given weak
low-level shear and only modest deep layer shear around 30 kts. This
will be adequate for transient supercells and mixed-mode clusters
developing along remnant outflow. Storms will have potential for
large hail and damaging winds, given steep mid-level lapse rates and
MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. The small spatial extent of this
threat likely precludes the need for a watch at this time.

..Thornton/Grams.. 06/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7mj-Mw563UspcNPXB73siaPp-rRV5h2Q0yGOZl_bAEy6zJiskLqY3PCQYH4I8LqtoN923DoiV= 0hHXJS7uUPCWyyFFKc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36820301 36970295 37010199 37270180 37460158 37490142
37550113 37510089 37440057 37280026 37190011 37050002
36809997 36600001 36520061 36560121 36430153 36170170
36050212 35750225 35690244 35640269 35650302 36040299
36820301=20


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