ACUS11 KWNS 252337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252336=20
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-260030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 252336Z - 260030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely through the lower
Mississippi River Valley in the coming hours. A few storms may be
strong to severe and pose an isolated wind/hail risk. While
confidence in the overall severe threat is low, trends will be
monitored for a possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery reveals growing agitated cumulus
along a outflow boundary draped through the lower MS River Valley.
Imagery from KDGX shows a few weak returns associated with the
deeper cumulus, but the gradual nature of the vertical development
suggests that robust convective initiation is not immediately
imminent. Initiation may become more likely between 0-1 UTC as the
surface cold front reaches the region. Initially discrete cells will
develop in an environment featuring 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 knots
of effective bulk shear, which should support storm organization and
an attendant hail threat. Southeasterly low-level flow is supporting
just over 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH across south-central MS, which may
support transient mesocyclones and a brief/weak tornado threat with
early discrete cells. Deep-layer flow oriented along the boundary
will likely favor upscale growth through the late evening. One or
more clusters may emerge with an increasing damaging wind potential.
While convective parameters will be supportive of organized
convection initially, the potential for numerous storm interactions
and decreasing buoyancy with eastward extent into MS casts
uncertainty into the spatial and temporal nature of the threat.
Trends will be monitored through the evening for possible watch
issuance.

..Moore/Grams.. 05/25/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7PIJzT16F67pswaJvQnVbMC-jhC8bMrbNotR0d1wNKlL9e1P_EU3B5VW5-U7svS0kzAkkrY9x= yLnjJAP8nfLBpysWRI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30329319 31119268 32009189 33229160 34349125 35259079
35619019 35528961 35218934 34708929 33708928 32898936
32018958 30469079 29879175 29629232 29499276 29539310
29929330 30329319=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 021637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021637=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-021830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...portions of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021637Z - 021830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with marginal severe wind threat possible
through the afternoon. Watch issuance unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is expected to continue
through the afternoon across portions of New England amid a modestly
unstable air mass. Daytime heating and dew points in the mid 50s to
low 60s have resulted in MLCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg. An
increase in cumulus across convergence near the higher terrain has
been observed, with a few cells developing. Forcing from a weak
shortwave will help further increase thunderstorm coverage through
the afternoon. Storm mode will likely be a mix of clusters, given
weak shear profiles and best flow largely behind a cold front well
to the north. Sounding analysis shows inverted V profiles with drier
air in the low-levels, suggestive of potential for a few microbursts
and marginal threat of severe wind. Given the more sporadic and
isolated nature of this threat, a watch is not being considered.

..Thornton/Grams.. 06/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5BCmcke5Qim5S7wACP43NBhv1sArnAR5_AtMBmuZ8JeqR8-G_E27KWI650co3T5lsAaDLoYDx= VAQL3vp-_d5hvM2F2Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 44577337 44837238 44837153 44747054 44487033 44037035
43367067 42927090 42497113 42127130 41777202 41827262
41897329 42057374 42317408 42587431 43087425 43357424
44577337=20


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