ACUS11 KWNS 252229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252229=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-260030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022

Areas affected...Far southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252229Z - 260030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated
hail/wind risk over the next 1-2 hours. This threat will likely
remain too limited spatially to warrant a watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...GOES imagery over the past hour has shown a few cells re-intensifying within a decaying MCS and developing ahead of the
line across southwest AL. This activity has generally been below
severe limits with only transient storm organization noted, and is
largely due to weak shear above the 2-3 km layer. However, a few
cells have shown brief MESH cores suggesting marginally severe to 1
inch hail is possible. Partly cloudy skies ahead of the line has
allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s, promoting modest
boundary-layer destabilization. MLCAPE values near 2000 J/kg are
noted in recent mesoanalysis estimates, which is likely driving the
brief, but strong, initial updraft pulses. 30-40 mph veering flow
within the lowest 1 km (sampled by regional VWPs) will support the
potential for isolated damaging winds with any stronger downburst
and perhaps a weak/brief tornado with any more organized discrete
cells. These trends are expected to continue over the next couple of
hours across southwest AL as the line drifts east, though the
limited nature of the threat will likely preclude watch issuance.

..Moore/Grams.. 05/25/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8-XEiQesQ5nmh7GKSgowaV45sfaPUnOECdO5UaMR8aMCqqGMMwr3R6Fjh0u5EhGZNIzdAuBFG= l5G_Y19h6m1zsFfNHw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30458879 31038865 31878855 32278817 32538771 32608727
32418684 31928655 31548651 30988659 30688664 30448674
30288691 30178756 30098797 30078840 30048877 30048888
30458879=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 021635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021635=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-021800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0918
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...TX Permian Basin and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 021635Z - 021800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell development is expected by early/mid afternoon,
with a threat of very large to giant hail (potentially 3-4 inches in
diameter), localized severe gusts, and a couple of tornadoes.
Tornado Watch issuance is likely by early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating is underway across the TX Permian Basin
region, with some thinning of low/midlevel cloudiness noted over the
last hour. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rich low-level moisture
are already supporting MLCAPE in excess of 1500-2000 J/kg, with an
increase above 3000 J/kg possible this afternoon. Meanwhile,
increasing midlevel flow near the base of a shortwave
mid/upper-level trough moving across the southern Rockies is
supporting effective shear of 40-55 kt across the region. This instability/shear combination will result in a very favorable severe thunderstorm environment, and scattered supercell development is
expected by early/mid afternoon as favorable large-scale ascent
attendant to the southern Rockies shortwave spreads over the region.

Elongated and relatively straight hodographs will favor splitting
supercells, with a primary threat of very large to giant
(potentially 3-4 inch in diameter) hail. While low-level flow will
likely remain relatively modest, some backing of surface winds may
support sufficient enhancement of low-level shear/SRH to support the
threat for a couple of tornadoes, especially with any more intense
and long-lived supercells. Localized severe gusts will be possible
as well.=20

With supercell development possible within the next 2-3 hours,
Tornado Watch issuance is likely by early afternoon.

..Dean/Grams.. 06/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4VbNS5joDvZEyAjSvhBOU811CgYD9A2ygHETWue0RKJ-F3b3dO14WHxud_CRFjef9E209xcne= wno0pcLD4arr9ZHbH4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30080282 31900321 32760359 32860314 32710134 30410098
29420096 30000212 30080282=20


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