ACUS11 KWNS 252038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252037=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-252230-
Mesoscale Discussion 0916
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022
Areas affected...portions of north and eastern Illinois into
northeast Indiana...extreme southwest Lower Michigan...far northwest
Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20
Valid 252037Z - 252230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The threat for a couple of brief tornadoes exists with the
stronger storms that can effectively interact with the warm front.
Conditions are being monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch
issuance pending favorable trends in severe storm coverage.
DISCUSSION...A surface warm front continues to advance northward
across northern IL/IN in advance of a 1002 mb surface low centered
over western MO. Along and south of the warm front, skies have
remained partly cloudy, allowing for ample insolation to destabilize
a deep, moist boundary layer. Surface temperatures warming into the
lower 80s amid 68-69 F dewpoints supports 1000 J/kg MLCAPE despite
the presence of relatively poor tropospheric lapse rates.
Upper-level flow along with deep-layer shear and ascent should
remain modest across the OH Valley through the afternoon since the
surface low and accompanying mid-level trough are expected to
meander west of the MS river. As such, there are questions regarding
how robust and organized storms will become across the OH Valley.
CAM guidance (including the last few runs of the Warn-On-Forecast
Ensemble) has shown some decrease in convective coverage and
intensity through the afternoon. Nonetheless, backed winds near the
warm front overspread by 30-40 kt 925-850 mb southerly winds (per
20z mesoanalysis) supports modestly curved 0-3 km hodographs and
corresponding 150-200 m2/s2 of SRH, as shown by LOT and IWX VAD
profilers just after 20Z.
Any storms that manage to organize and interact favorably with the
warm front may exhibit transient supercell structures with low-level
rotation, and isolated tornadoes would be possible. However,
confidence is not particularly high in a more robust tornado threat
given the mediocre lapse rates/deep-layer shear. As such, conditions
will continue to be monitored for signs of locally more robust storm organization and the subsequent need for a Tornado Watch.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/25/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8wJ34ZSqGsdTW2UYmanGxpsjkadnaQV9tfq3p6WZ91ScJN5vgWts51CpC1CJFyK_X9Ee6_2hv= G1B9tEdxOn2CCSP4Hk$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
LAT...LON 41028921 41788915 42278859 42438825 42038620 41758482
41238414 40888403 40578412 40358440 40218488 40238555
40498689 40648802 40788876 40908915 40948923 41028921=20
=3D =3D =3D
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