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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0900

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 24, 2022 18:42:38
    ACUS11 KWNS 241842
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241842=20
    TXZ000-242015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0900
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0142 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

    Areas affected...portions of west-central into northern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 241842Z - 242015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Convection is expected to develop and rapidly increase in
    coverage and intensity across parts of west-central Texas into
    northern Texas this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts will be
    the main hazards with this activity.

    DISCUSSION...A somewhat messy convective scenario is expected to
    unfold over the next couple of hours across portions of west-central
    Texas near the surface triple point into north Texas along the
    surface outflow boundary. Initial convective development is expected
    soon east of Midland to near San Angelo ahead of the surface dryline
    and near the roughly west to east oriented surface boundary. Visible
    satellite imagery shows deepening cumulus across this area where
    strong heating has allowed temperatures to climb as high as the low
    80s F. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F beneath steep
    midlevel lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg.
    Effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt and vertically veering
    wind profiles will favor initial semi-discrete supercells capable of
    very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter). This
    activity will be high-based, with weak 0-3 km flow evident in
    forecast soundings and SPC Mesoanalysis. Coupled with steep
    low-level lapse rates and DCAPE increasing to greater than 1000
    J/kg, damaging outflow winds also will be possible. Weak low-level
    shear and higher-based convection will likely limit the overall
    tornado threat. However, low-level instability and vorticity will be
    maximized near the triple point/surface boundary. This will
    conditionally support a limited tornado threat with cells
    interacting with the surface boundary or via storm mergers/outflow
    interactions across portions of central TX.

    Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase to the
    northeast along the surface boundary into parts of north Texas. This
    activity is expected to develop into clusters/line segments more
    quickly compared to storms closer to the triple point. Hail and
    damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/24/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-HJv_1mlIcyK31hfHVEY91nuYZvC1GeTCpuRgYue19JymGXOdeoMjbHpKx195_Qg2c7BzICv6= n6idLmFYnGOxr0g13Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30820176 31400168 32070114 32490033 32759953 33059880
    33209833 33459754 33579712 33639644 33629614 33499568
    33239566 32279623 30689843 30030007 30070079 30240136
    30330165 30590176 30820176=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 30, 2023 21:35:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 302135
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302134=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-302300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0900
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0434 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

    Areas affected...Central High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 302134Z - 302300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...High-based convection is expected to increase across the
    central High Plains this evening. Severe winds are the greatest
    risk, though isolated large hail can be expected.

    DISCUSSION...Surface heating across the central High Plains has
    minimized inhibition in the lee of the Rockies from southeast WY
    into northeast CO. As a result, scattered convection is beginning to
    increase in areal coverage, especially across southeast WY. This
    activity appears to be aided by a weak mid-level disturbance that is
    shifting east toward the central Plains. Southeasterly low-level
    inflow should contribute to eastward propagation as some increase in
    LLJ is expected after sunset. Additionally, scattered cu field is
    deepening along a weak surface boundary, just north of I-70 over
    northwest KS. Thunderstorms may continue to cluster along this zone
    of preferential low-level convergence over the next few hours.
    Severe winds should be the primary risk as convection organizes over
    the High Plains and potentially grows upscale as it progresses
    downstream this evening.

    ..Darrow/Grams.. 05/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6GnBi0XiLM_B1Cf81wJ1vdpltEOtPSnKtR_tsmJZf3AF1otyK4O2f_v-ogmkefNfutk36CfwM= r1G_F0gDtMrofTWtgw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40210363 42160389 42430248 41120137 39199971 38910196
    40210363=20


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