ACUS11 KWNS 241759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241759=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-241930-
Mesoscale Discussion 0899
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022
Areas affected...portions of southeast NM into western TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 241759Z - 241930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
spread east across southeast New Mexico, with additional development
possible across parts of western TX in the next couple of hours.
Large hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible
with this activity. A watch will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing early this afternoon over
the higher terrain of central NM on the nose of an ejecting midlevel
shortwave trough and in modest post-frontal upslope flow.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain marginal, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s across southeast NM into portions of west TX.
However, steep midlevel lapse rates and heating into the low 70s is contributing to MLCAPE values near 1000-1500 J/kg. Effective shear
magnitudes greater than 40 kt will result in organized convection.
Clusters and line segments are expected across southeast NM as
convection develops eastward off of the higher terrain and
eventually moves into western TX. Hail and damaging gusts will be
possible with this activity.
Further east across portions of the LUB and MAF CWAs, semi-discrete
convection is possible initially in the vicinity of the triple point
and west to east oriented surface boundary. RAP forecast soundings
and latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicate midlevel lapse rates near 8
C/km across this area with elongated hodographs from near the
surface to around 4 km. With additional heating, MLCAPE is expected
to increase to near 2000 J/kg. This will support supercells capable
of very large hail (some larger than 2 inches). Additionally, steep
low-level lapse rates and somewhat dry air beneath higher cloud
bases will support strong outflow winds. The tornado threat is
expected to remain low. However, 0-3 km MLCAPE is forecast to
increase to around 100-125 J/kg through the afternoon/early evening
with enhanced low-level vorticity in the vicinity of the surface
boundary. As such, cells interacting with the surface boundary or
via other storm merger/outflow interactions, could conditionally
support limited tornado potential. A watch will likely be issued
soon for portions of the MCD.
..Leitman/Hart.. 05/24/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7z1fw5FhTV_u23a60INuZXPU4wXML6UDhKqDR1JVhwPYDNYzfXsqxxmV5UACsibbVQEOrKDS2= 8AvVdPSfMsKNc7cMds$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 32360335 32940432 33330463 33760461 34050456 34270417
34300376 33990307 33760251 33610205 33420156 33230099
32950065 32090059 31820066 31610091 31570136 31600181
31740225 32350329 32360335=20
=3D =3D =3D
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