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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0898

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 24, 2022 17:43:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 241743
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241742=20
    ALZ000-241945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0898
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1242 PM CDT Tue May 24 2022

    Areas affected...southwest into central Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 241742Z - 241945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may accompany an organizing
    thunderstorm cluster across southwest Alabama as it progresses
    northward through mid afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected given
    the isolated nature of the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar and NLDN lightning data suggest an
    upward tick in convective intensity/coverage is underway with a
    thunderstorm cluster in southwest AL, which continues to progress
    northeast within a very moist, unstable airmass. Surface
    temperatures over 80F amid 70F surface dewpoints are contributing to
    1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE per 17Z mesoanalysis. While mid-level lapse
    rates and deep-layer shear are currently poor across southwest AL,
    slightly mid/upper flow across central AL supports 30+ kts of
    effective bulk shear. Should this storm cluster persist through mid
    afternoon, some potential exists for modest linear organization and
    an associated strong/damaging gust threat materializing, as also
    suggested by the last few runs of the HRRR. Still, severe gusts are
    expected to remain more isolated so a WW issuance is not currently
    expected.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/24/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!91AhfdRQkntwtYQEK82FE2xUg7xmPycapxvwnUhU4WtS0u8AaNkRUUNv0dBbEaHrmxQttyBox= lMfphG6XlAGbqteTD0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...

    LAT...LON 31628664 31438699 31448741 31528772 31688813 31858825
    32228813 33178779 33748749 34048688 34018640 33868594
    33268568 32758568 32178612 31628664=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 30, 2023 19:13:22
    ACUS11 KWNS 301913
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301912=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-302115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0898
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0212 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

    Areas affected...Northeastern KS...southeastern NE...northwestern
    MO...and southwestern IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301912Z - 302115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...The potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable
    of marginal hail and locally strong gusts should increase during the
    next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Ahead of a remnant MCV over northeastern KS, locally
    enhanced mesoscale ascent/surface confluence combined with diurnal destabilization of a moist air mass (middle 60s dewpoints) is
    supporting deepening cumulus and isolated thunderstorm development
    this afternoon. This activity is developing along the far eastern
    edge of steep midlevel lapse rates associated with an EML over the
    central Plains and in a corridor of rich boundary-layer moisture.
    While low/midlevel flow is relatively weak over the area, a couple stronger/briefly organized updrafts capable of marginally severe
    hail and locally strong gusts are possible -- aided by the steep
    deep-layer lapse rates and somewhat focused zone of mesoscale
    ascent. Any severe threat should remain isolated.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8QpRjjsIL9rXp9vqaY55oaXLVgqIpJhil493Jw5Lji__1qJkRucQqqvGsaD0GOgUjJDAfF8wr= 1TRwnA2P5qIxGlJTa4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39449668 39229641 39209578 39279548 39449526 39669506
    39969499 40319492 40859484 41289474 41609470 41969476
    42149500 42189544 42029586 41899610 41739616 41319643
    40839654 40119653 39449668=20


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