ACUS11 KWNS 240254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240253=20
TXZ000-240400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0894
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Areas affected...TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265...

Valid 240253Z - 240400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat will likely spread east of ww265 in the next
few hours. New severe thunderstorm watch appears warranted.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased across the TX
Panhandle ahead of a weak short-wave trough ejecting ahead of the
primary western trough. LLJ has increased ahead of this feature with
30kt 850mb southeasterly inflow across the TX South Plains into the southern-most supercell over Hockley County. This storm is
propagating east at 15-20kt but may increase in forward speed as
more concentrated convection is evolving just northwest of this
activity. While ongoing storms are within the instability axis,
ample buoyancy extends downstream into northwest TX such that some
severe threat should continue east of the High Plains into the early
morning hours. Hail is the primary risk, though locally damaging
winds are also possible.

..Darrow.. 05/24/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_DY9thFfuItXScA4yGJDK151Yn_XpHv74QCuuFTjRlWO3DCI7Em8rux_NiZh3-_OZxNeB5QqW= xF0aCiLakPB7cyVBoc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...

LAT...LON 34580248 34450016 33160005 33430252 34580248=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 291921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291921=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-292115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0894
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central NE...northeastern CO...and far
south-central SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 291921Z - 292115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and damaging winds should increase
during the next couple hours. A watch is possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an
expanding/deepening cumulus field in the vicinity of a confluence
axis extending across central Nebraska into northeastern Colorado
this afternoon. Continued diurnal destabilization of a relatively
moist air mass along/south of the boundary (lower 60s dewpoints)
should support isolated to widely scattered convective initiation
during the next couple hours. Regional VWP data indicates a belt of strengthening midlevel westerlies overspreading the confluence axis
-- which should yield around 30 kt of effective shear this
afternoon. Shear vectors and storm motion oblique to the boundary
should favor a few supercell clusters capable of large hail and
damaging winds, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Trends are being
monitored for a possible watch this afternoon.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/29/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QxjVafmU20tNd8zZ-xed2xjEHXnYV9rDwZRTztKdtwLgLScbOpVRE7bkC0VUD_HqxoVI6b-o= rXBe1_UAg8P0l2VcEI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 43039913 42819891 42529890 42119895 41719927 41080006
40720067 40200170 40000251 40060315 40370346 40770350
41060326 41620249 42190158 42600093 42870057 43010018
43109985 43149942 43039913=20


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