ACUS11 KWNS 240011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240011=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-240115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Areas affected...Northwest South Carolina into far southwest North
Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 263...

Valid 240011Z - 240115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 263 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado potential will likely persist through 01 UTC
along the northern North Carolina/South Carolina border.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop in the vicinity of
the post-tropical low over the western Carolinas. At least one
low-topped supercell has produced a tornado over the past hour
despite the early onset of diurnal cooling. A couple of other storms
within WW 263 have also shown signs of persistent mesocyclones over
the past 30 minutes, which suggests that the potential for a tornado
or two continues for the near term. Regional VWP observations
continue to show strong low-level helicity (upwards of 150-250 m2/s2
of 0-1 km SRH), and 1-2 F dewpoint depressions will limit the degree
of diurnal cooling over the next hour and maintain sufficient
instability for low-topped convection. The tornado threat will begin
to diminish more substantially as the surface low continues to move
north into a more stable air mass and diurnal cooling fosters
growing inhibition, but this will likely not occur until after 01
UTC.

..Moore.. 05/24/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!81GVhZiBuNGkNgY8xToCZgBnaWlO7uE2bm9mXG0cIYzU3Kv1Oc5WDYGJsttS0FEov1wWm0488= Y1C8yPZ8oqLnpwxoT8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34688207 35018213 35538185 35728145 35628096 35308079
34948107 34688122 34588140 34518163 34688207=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 282353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282352=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-290115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0891
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

Areas affected...OK Panhandle...northern TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 282352Z - 290115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A squall line capable of isolated severe gusts (60-75 mph)
is becoming more likely during the evening. Large hail is possible
with the discrete supercells ahead of the line.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a developing squall line from far
northeast NM east-northeastward into far southwest KS. Visible
satellite imagery shows a residual outflow boundary arcing from the
TX Low Rolling Plains northwestward to the western part of the TX
Panhandle and extending northward to the CO/KS/OK border.=20=20

Surface observations indicate relatively moist conditions with lower
60s deg F dewpoints and temperatures in the mid 70s. RAP forecast
soundings for current surface conditions indicate a very unstable
airmass is in place across the TX Panhandle with MLCAPE around 2500
J/kg. Although deep-layer shear is marginal for supercells, it is
more than adequate for organized storm structures. The steep
700-500 mb lapse rates in excess of 8 deg C/km will aid in longevity
of the storm cluster despite an only modest LLJ increase this
evening. A large hail threat will accompany any discrete updrafts
before additional storm congealing occurs and severe gusts become
the main threat.

..Smith/Grams.. 05/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7I87Tc_pO59aLU3yrVCoWLbmBnfOsN9zD6ZNFjz4AD4no-3tCJ5hpch1mu00zN9gTWorlDkqk= qFDG05b9cfHUL_H-w0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36720309 37260214 37440107 37060057 36340059 35700214
35830286 36180318 36720309=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)