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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0888

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 23, 2022 22:41:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 232241
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232241=20
    TXZ000-240045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0888
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0541 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

    Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 232241Z - 240045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are possible with thunderstorms this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch does not
    appear warranted.

    DISCUSSION...A weak mid-level short-wave trough appears to be
    embedded within southerly stream over west-central TX. In response
    to this feature, a cluster of storms has evolved into a weak MCS
    that is propagating northeast ahead of the short wave. Latest radar
    data depicts a weak MCV near ABI and this feature supports
    longer-lived organization going forward. Over the last hour or so,
    robust updrafts have evolved along the southern flank of this
    complex where surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s and
    surface-3km lapse rates are around 8 C/km. Additionally, southeast/northwest-oriented boundary is draped just downstream,
    arcing into this feature along I-20. While mid- high-level flow is
    not particularly strong at this longitude, there appears to be
    adequate flow/buoyancy for further development just downstream,
    especially along a corridor from near San Saba to Hillsboro. Gusty
    winds and perhaps some marginally severe hail are the primary
    threats.

    ..Darrow/Grams.. 05/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5SX9n7JEijxKNmjEyr-kbrHS0ainNIOxG0Qjp9Yss_Iddb3b8VXyLzhoEjtBRVBSgeCQJ234l= iSRh9O23_yYZDGsNjA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30889852 32839810 32589639 30699703 30889852=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 27, 2023 23:55:02
    ACUS11 KWNS 272354
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272354=20
    NDZ000-MTZ000-280130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0888
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0654 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Montana into western North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 272354Z - 280130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds are possible on an isolated
    basis. A watch is not anticipated this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated in two areas in the northern High
    Plains. First, convection developed within the higher terrain in
    central Montana and is moving slowly eastward. As this activity
    encounters greater buoyancy to the east, some potential for damaging
    winds and isolated large hail will exist. Uncertainty as to how far
    east this activity will push is high given the deep-layer wind field
    parallel to the convection. Across southeast Montana, more isolated
    cells have developed along outflow from convection to the south.
    These storms will have a greater large hail threat along with
    isolated damaging gusts. Lastly, a weak surface boundary appears
    evident in surface observations and visible satellite. Convergence
    is rather weak, but a storm or two could potentially develop and
    pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds as well. At present, severe-caliber storms are expected to remain isolated and a watch is
    not anticipated.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_dR8D6cikP3UJA4epoyHvA8d340jNDYr103uyVLUOHkXRqjZ2eb-vXTKTgdevfkZKhCA_PNtI= OuezClmWLRa7oLmVYQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 46560478 46060582 45780710 46800757 48120773 48830710
    48890628 48700409 48230291 48150282 47680231 47010223
    46600257 46670345 46710377 46690437 46560478=20


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