ACUS11 KWNS 232043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232043=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-232245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0886
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern Georgia into South Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263...

Valid 232043Z - 232245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 263. Damaging gusts and large hail remain the primary threats
into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection has become fairly widespread across eastern
GA into SC within a broad, moist confluence zone trailing a surface
low located over far northeast GA. MRMS MESH suggests marginally
severe hail has occurred with the longer-lasting transient
supercells across central/southern SC. Meanwhile, storms across
eastern GA continue to consolidate into larger clusters, potentially
supporting cold pool development and the subsequent risk of strong
or damaging gusts given steep low-level lapse rates. Surface winds
are also slightly more backed across central South Carolina and
storms approaching this regime may exhibit brief bouts of transient
low-level rotation. As such, a brief tornado cannot be completely
ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 05/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kLHhTrYR3FbuzIZTVRXIedNbXyfy7qJbPj2RZ_LIAknkjUISAzvn37RKTxqVyJsxR1WYARzG= s_eq1cD-4GV6gyA3kA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 32118232 32668263 33558246 33918211 34508087 34558019
34387983 33737967 33277967 32808024 32398089 32138136
32018192 32118232=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 272203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272203=20
KSZ000-COZ000-280000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0886
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

Areas affected...East-central Colorado into west-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 272203Z - 280000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible into
early evening with a small cluster of storms in east-central
Colorado.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with occasional supercell
characteristics continues northeastward in east-central Colorado.
Dewpoints have mixed out to the low to mid 50s F, supportive of
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear is a modest 30-35 kts, but
will be sufficient to maintain some potential for additional
rotating updrafts. The primary threats will be large hail and
isolated damaging winds. While the low-level hodographs are not
particularly large, discrete storms that persist to near the Kansas
border will eventually be impacted by modestly increasing 850 mb
southeasterly winds. A narrow window for a brief tornado will exist
over the next couple of hours should storms maintain intensity.

..Wendt/Grams.. 05/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!88pcsQ5iLrcQ4d598t-MgIpnO6igCuqVaDmkQIJDFC1AfUUNvzbLtugU6qVhAxOb-Qc9lekHC= 5SjW6prbQuCAjISrxw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 38060321 38540338 38980302 39130210 38860159 38550164
38080238 38020291 38060321=20


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