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ACUS02 KWNS 051731
SWODY2
SPC AC 051729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Sat Mar 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RED RIVER VALLEY
TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday through
Monday morning from northeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma across
Arkansas, southern Missouri, and toward the lower Ohio River Valley.
A few tornadoes along with damaging winds may occur.

...KY/TN to the Red River Valley...
A shortwave trough will eject from the Four Corners towards the
Lower MO Valley during the period. At the surface, an initial cold
front will stall by midday across the Lower OH Valley southwestward
across southeast OK to the TX Big Country. Modest cyclogenesis will
occur along this baroclinic zone, mainly during the evening to
overnight, from near the Red River Valley northeast into the Mid-MS
and Lower OH Valleys. The northward advancement of the warm sector
across the Ozarks and confluence of the MS/OH Valleys will be
crucial to the overall severe potential on Sunday night. The air
mass south of the front will predominately contain low 60s
boundary-layer dew points with sustained mid 60s near the Lower Red
River Valley and separately across the Lower MS Valley.

Afternoon thunderstorm development is most probable within a
low-level warm theta-e advection regime ahead of the front from the
Mid-South to KY/TN. A mid-level warm layer should curtail
instability to some extent and low-level hodographs should remain
relatively modest. But sufficient deep-layer shear will exist for a
few weak supercells within this corridor and a marginal tornado/wind
threat.

By late afternoon to early evening, generally elevated convection
will increase north of the surface front in OK towards the Ozarks as large-scale ascent strengthens with the ejecting trough. The
southern extent of this convective development may become
surface-based impinging on northward advancement of the warm sector
through the evening. Substantial amplification of low-level wind
fields is also anticipated into the overnight, and this should yield
enlarged low-level hodographs into a confined portion of the warm
sector with 0-1 km SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2. Guidance does differ
with how far north the richer Gulf moisture will reach, which will
be modulated by preceding warm-conveyor-driven convection, and the
degree of warm-sector convective development where hodographs will
be most favorable. It is plausible that a mesoscale corridor of
enhanced nocturnal tornado potential may become highlighted in later
outlooks centered on the northern AR and southern MO vicinity.
Additional thunderstorms will probably develop overnight farther
southwest into at least northeast TX as the surface cold front
advances east. Less favorable M-shaped hodographs should yield a
waning severe threat with southwest extent.

...Northern/eastern NY and VT...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will shift east across the region
during the day, accompanied by extreme low to mid-level wind fields
(80-90 kts at 700 mb). Surface temperatures should warm into the 60s
across the southern half of NY with 50s and 40s with northeast
extent across New England. Some CAMs suggest a corridor of
low-topped convection may develop east of Lake Ontario along a
progressive cold front where meager surface-based buoyancy might
occur amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While most convection
will probably become elevated with time, the intense flow just off
the surface suggest a 2-4 hour window for damaging wind gusts may
become realized.

..Grams.. 03/05/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 060701
SWODY2
SPC AC 060659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Mar 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of scattered damaging wind gusts will be
possible from parts of the Southeast into the Ohio Valley and
Appalachians on Monday.

...Southeast into the OH Valley/Northeast...
A strong midlevel shortwave trough and associated surface cyclone
are expected to move quickly eastward from the OH Valley into
portions of New England through the day on Monday, as an attendant
cold front sweeps through much of the Southeast and OH/TN Valleys.

Most guidance suggests that an extensive band of convection will be
ongoing Monday morning from portions of the OH Valley southwestward
into the lower MS Valley, in conjunction with the cold front.
Despite generally weak instability, strong low/midlevel flow (50-75
kt at 700 mb overspreading the warm sector) will support a threat of isolated-to-scattered damaging wind gusts with this frontal band as
it moves eastward through the morning.

The southern portion of the line may tend to weaken through the day,
as the primary large-scale ascent lifts quickly northeastward, while
the northern portion of the line will encounter increasingly
negligible buoyancy with time during the afternoon and early
evening. As a result, uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude
and coverage of the damaging wind threat, though the strong flow and
potential for steepening of low-level lapse rates ahead of the line
will support a conditional damaging wind risk with any persistent
frontal convection. In addition, low-level shear will be sufficient
to support the potential for a brief line-embedded tornado.

The highest wind probabilities have been focused from northern MS/AL
into the TN/OH Valleys and Appalachians, where somewhat more
vigorous convection appears most likely to persist from late morning
into the afternoon. Weak, low-topped convection with gusty winds
cannot be ruled out across parts of the Northeast as well, though
confidence in that scenario remains too low for severe wind
probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 03/06/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 061731
SWODY2
SPC AC 061730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sun Mar 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of scattered damaging wind gusts will be
possible from parts of the Southeast into the Ohio Valley and
Appalachians on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough initially over the mid MS Valley Monday
morning will move east-northeastward into the Northeast by mid
evening. An attendant cold front will sweep across much of the
Southeast and OH/TN Valleys.

Recent model guidance continues to show an extensive band of
convection early Monday morning from the OH Valley
south-southwestward into the lower MS Valley. Weak lapse rates will
act to limit buoyancy amidst a narrow plume of low-level moisture
ahead of the front (dewpoints ranging from near 60 deg F north to
the mid 60s south). However, strong low- to mid-level flow will
promote quick storm motion and the potential for damaging gusts with
the stronger convectively aided downdrafts.

There is appreciable uncertainty on the southwest extent of the
severe risk over the lower MS Valley during the day. Weakening
forcing for ascent may lead to only weak convection along the front.
However, steepening low-level lapse rates over AL during the day may
lead to a rejuvenation of the severe risk. It appears damaging
gusts will be the primary hazard but a tornado is possible with the
squall line in the morning or perhaps later in the day over the AL
vicinity. It seems the convection will probably weaken as it moves
east across the spine of the Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic
as it encounters weakening instability. Nonetheless, in later
outlooks will reassess model-forecast buoyancy for a possible
low-probability wind hazard in parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

..Smith.. 03/06/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 070632
SWODY2
SPC AC 070630

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across the Gulf Coast states into the
Carolinas Tuesday into Tuesday night. The severe thunderstorm threat
appears low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level trough will cover much of the CONUS on Tuesday.
Within the larger-scale trough, an embedded shortwave is forecast to
move from the southern Rockies eastward toward the mid-MS and OH
Valleys by Tuesday night. At the surface, a cold front will become
nearly stationary Tuesday morning from the northwest Gulf of Mexico northeastward into parts of southern GA/SC.

...LA Gulf Coast eastward into southern GA and the FL Panhandle...
Widespread elevated convection is expected to develop north of the
front across much of the Southeast by Tuesday afternoon/evening, in
response to a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet associated
with the approaching shortwave. A few stronger storms capable of
small hail are possible within this regime, but the severe threat
appears low with this activity.

A weak surface wave may develop along the front in the northern Gulf
of Mexico by Tuesday evening, and track northeastward along the
boundary. Should this occur, some northward movement of the front is
possible in advance of the wave, and near-surface-based convection
may develop late Tuesday night near the immediate LA/MS/AL Gulf
Coast into the FL Panhandle. This scenario would potentially support
some severe risk late in the period, but confidence is too low to
introduce probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 03/07/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 071728
SWODY2
SPC AC 071727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms may develop Tuesday night
over parts of the central Gulf Coast.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will quickly move from the southern
Rockies east into the KY/TN vicinity by daybreak Wednesday. In the
low levels, a frontal zone will initially extend from the Carolina
shelf waters west-southwestward into the western Gulf of Mexico. As
the mid-level disturbance traverses east during the day, a weak area
of low pressure will develop northeast from the western Gulf into
central AL by early Wednesday morning. Concurrently, the front over
the northern part of the Gulf will advance northward into far
southern MS/AL late Tuesday night.

Recent model guidance trends show a warm sector penetrating the
coast with mid-upper 60s deg F dewpoints. Although lapse rates will
remain modest, the northward flux of moisture into the central Gulf
Coast will lead to scattered showers/thunderstorms developing
Tuesday and expanding in coverage Tuesday night. Model forecast
soundings show 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE with shear profiles supporting
organized structures. As a result, have introduced low wind/tornado probabilities to account for increased confidence for a couple of
stronger storms developing within the northern periphery of a
destabilizing warm sector near the coast.

..Smith.. 03/07/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 080657
SWODY2
SPC AC 080656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Mar 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts
of the Southeast and Carolinas on Wednesday. Locally damaging wind,
isolated hail, and a brief tornado or two are all possible.

...Synopsis...
A longwave upper trough is expected to remain in place over much of
the CONUS on Wednesday. An embedded midlevel shortwave trough is
forecast to move quickly from the OH/TN Valley region Wednesday
morning to offshore of New England by evening. At the start of the
period, a surface boundary is forecast to be draped from the
northwest Gulf of Mexico northeastward into north GA, and then
eastward across SC and southern NC. In response to the
aforementioned midlevel shortwave trough, a weak surface cyclone is
expected to develop early Wednesday morning near southeast LA and
move east-northeastward along the boundary through the day.

...Parts of the Southeast/Carolinas...
A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may be ongoing
Wednesday morning from far southeast LA into southern AL and the FL
Panhandle, primarily near the surface boundary. Modest buoyancy
(MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg along and south of the front) and effective
shear of greater than 40 kt will support the potential for
supercells and/or small bowing segments. While severe-storm coverage
is uncertain due to relatively limited large-scale ascent, locally
damaging wind will be possible with any organized storm structures
during the morning. 0-1 km SRH of greater than 200 m2/s2 will also
support a brief tornado threat, especially near the track of the
weak surface low.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected across the
Carolinas, Georgia, and north Florida during the afternoon, as the
surface wave moves toward the Atlantic Coast. MLCAPE of 500-1500
J/kg (greatest with southern extent) and effective shear of 40-50 kt
will continue to support the potential for one or more organized
thunderstorm clusters, with a threat of locally damaging wind and
perhaps a brief tornado. Some hail will also be possible with any
semi-discrete storms, especially in areas where greater heating and destabilization can occur prior to storm arrival.

While the primary severe risk is expected to diminish with the
departure of the midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface low,
some elevated convection may redevelop late Wednesday night to the
north of the surface boundary. A few strong storms will be possible
within this regime as well, though the severe risk late in the
period remains uncertain at this time.

..Dean.. 03/08/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 081720
SWODY2
SPC AC 081718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Tue Mar 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the
Southeast and Carolinas on Wednesday. Damaging wind, isolated hail,
and a couple of tornadoes are all possible.

...Southeast/Carolinas...

A midlevel shortwave trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the
mid-MS Valley vicinity early Wednesday will quickly shift northeast
toward the Mid-Atlantic and New England vicinity by 00z. The
forecast track of the shortwave will focus stronger large-scale
ascent generally north of the southeastern U.S. Nevertheless, strong southwesterly vertical shear will be in place in a warm advection
regime ahead of a surface boundary. The surface boundary will extend
from extreme southeast LA to northern GA, then east/northeast across
Upstate SC and coastal NC.

A weak surface low will develop eastward along the frontal wave from
northern GA into the Carolinas through the day. In the absence of
stronger large-scale ascent, this could aid in increased tornado
potential through augmentation of low-level shear/vorticity. Given
the combination of surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s F, and
MLCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg in the presence of 40-50 kt
effective shear in the vicinity of a surface boundary/low,
confidence has increased in the development of a few well-organized
supercells, and a narrow corridor of 5 percent tornado potential as
been included from southwest GA into parts of the SC Midlands and
Lowcountry.

In addition to a couple of tornadoes, transient supercells and
bowing segments also are possible across the broader region from the
FL Panhandle to coastal NC. Strong low-level flow, with a low-level
jet around 40-50 kt may support damaging gusts, especially where any
stronger heating/steepening of low-level lapse rates occurs ahead of
the eastward-advancing band of convection. Marginally severe hail
also may accompany stronger, well-organized supercells. As a warm
advection regime continues across the region into the late afternoon
and evening, elevated storms may redevelop on the cool side of the
surface boundary. Severe potential appears low with this activity at
this time, but some small hail could accompany stronger cells.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 090622
SWODY2
SPC AC 090620

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CST Wed Mar 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds will be possible
Thursday across parts of the northern Florida peninsula.

...Synopsis...
The longwave upper trough covering much of the CONUS will amplify on
Thursday, as one shortwave trough digs into the Southwest, and
another shortwave trough moves into the northern Great Plains and
Upper Midwest. A surface front is forecast to be draped from the
northwest Gulf of Mexico northeastward into GA/north FL on Thursday
morning. The western portion of the front is expected to move little
through the period, while convective outflow will likely push the
eastern segment of the front southward through the day. Late in the
period, weak cyclogenesis is expected in the vicinity of the western
Gulf/south TX, as a strong cold front moves southward through the
central and southern Plains.

...FL Peninsula...
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning near and
north of the surface boundary. This activity will be driven by
weak-to-moderate buoyancy and a modest (20-30 kt) southwesterly
low-level jet. While some veering and weakening of the low-level jet
is expected during the day, convection will likely be maintained
along and to the cool side of the boundary, which will tend to push southeastward with time, driven by convective outflow. Effective
shear will be sufficient to support some organized storm structures,
and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible as one or more
outflow-driven clusters move across the northern FL peninsula during
the afternoon. Instability will be sufficient to support a
conditional hail risk as well, though the severe-hail risk is more
uncertain due to the expected tendency for primarily a cluster or
quasi-linear mode.

..Dean.. 03/09/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 091657
SWODY2
SPC AC 091656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Wed Mar 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds will be possible
Thursday across parts of the northern Florida peninsula.

...Synopsis...

A broad upper trough will envelop much of the CONUS on Thursday. A
shortwave embedded within larger-scale flow will dig across the
Southwest while a second shortwave traverses the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. This will maintain moderate southwesterly deep layer
flow across much of the southern and eastern U.S. A surface front
will extend from the western Gulf of Mexico toward the FL/GA border.
The front is not expected to move much during the day across GA/FL,
but convective outflows from ongoing and redeveloping diurnal
convection will push the effective boundary southward across
northern FL.

...Northern/Central FL...

Elevated convection is expected at the beginning of the period along
and to the north of the surface front. This activity will initially
be maintained by a modest southwesterly low-level jet and moderate
instability during the morning. Outflow from morning storms will
propagate southward, acting as the effective surface front, and
becoming a focus for additional thunderstorm development through the
afternoon hours. While lapse rates are forecast to remain poor,
moderate vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt)
and MLCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg should maintain at least
transient organized convection. Low-level shear is expected to
weaken through the day, with hodographs becoming less favorable for
low-level rotation, while deep-layer boundary-parallel flow will
mainly support clusters/bowing segments. The main hazard with
convection through late afternoon will be strong to locally damaging
wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 100702
SWODY2
SPC AC 100700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
AL...FL PANHANDLE AND NORTH FL PENINSULA...SOUTHERN GA...PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind, isolated hail, and a few
tornadoes are possible across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas.
A few strong storms are possible during the day, but the greatest
threat appears to be very late Friday night into Saturday morning.

...Synopsis...
The longwave upper trough over the central/eastern CONUS is forecast
to amplify and move eastward during the day on Friday into Saturday
morning. A surface cyclone is forecast to develop near the central
Gulf Coast during the afternoon/evening, along a surface boundary
that will initially likely be draped across the northern Gulf of
Mexico into the northern FL Peninsula. Rapid intensification of the
cyclone is expected late in the period, as an embedded midlevel
shortwave trough emerging from the Southwest interacts with a
shortwave trough moving southeastward from the upper Midwest. As the
cyclone deepens, the boundary initially over the Gulf will move
northward as a warm front into parts of southern GA and the
Carolinas by 12Z Saturday morning. A strong cold front will begin
accelerating southeastward in the wake of the cyclone by Friday evening/Saturday morning.

...Friday morning/afternoon: Parts of north FL and southeast GA...
Similar to previous days, elevated convection may ongoing near and
north of the front at the start of the period over parts of the
northeast Gulf of Mexico into north FL, within a weak warm-advection
regime. Unlike previous days, however, the southwesterly low-level
jet is expected to strengthen through the day. As a result,
convection will likely grow in coverage and be sustained into the
afternoon, and eventually lift northeastward by evening. Deep-layer
shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and
localized damaging wind and hail will be possible with the strongest
storms. Low-level shear will also be sufficient for a tornado or two
with any sustained cells near or south of the surface boundary.

...Friday night into Saturday morning: Central Gulf Coast region
into the Carolinas/north FL...
As the midlevel shortwave trough moves eastward out of the
Southwest, increasing large-scale ascent will support initially
elevated thunderstorm development across parts of southern LA/MS.
The initial convection may pose an isolated threat of strong wind
gusts or hail, but the primary severe threat is expected between
06-12Z, as convection begins to increase in response to a rapidly
strengthening low-level jet across the FL Panhandle into southeast
AL, southern GA, and eventually parts of SC. Buoyancy will likely
remain weak (MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg), but deep-layer shear will
become quite strong, supporting low-topped supercell potential, with
an attendant tornado risk. Convection may also begin increasing
along the synoptic cold front, posing a damaging wind risk. There is
some potential for a strong tornado or two, and possibly one or more
damaging wind swaths, but given the very late timing of the event
and uncertainty regarding the available buoyancy,
Slight-Risk-equivalent wind/tornado probabilities have been
maintained for this outlook.

..Dean.. 03/10/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 101657
SWODY2
SPC AC 101655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind, isolated hail, and a few
tornadoes are possible across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas.
A few strong storms are possible during the day, but the greatest
threat appears to be very late Friday night into Saturday morning.

...Synopsis...

A large-scale upper trough will extend from the Upper Midwest to
northern Mexico Friday morning. This system is expected to
strengthen as it shifts eastward, extending from the upper Great
Lakes to the Lower MS Valley by Saturday morning. As the upper
trough advances eastward, southwesterly deep-layer flow will
increase across the southeastern U.S. toward the Mid-Atlantic.
Low-level flow in particular will become quite strong after 00z with
a 50+ kt low-level jet forecast amid effective shear magnitudes
increasing from around 35 kt during the day to 50+ kt overnight from
the central Gulf Coast vicinity into the Carolinas.

At the surface, a warm front will be draped along the central Gulf
coastal plain into the NC/SC Piedmont vicinity. Strong warm
advection and low-level southerly flow will maintain mid 60s to near
70 F dewpoints across the warm sector. As stronger height falls
overspread the region by late afternoon into the overnight hours, a
surface low will begin to deepen over coastal LA and track
east/northeast toward the VA/NC Piedmont by Saturday morning. As
this occurs, a cold front will shift east across the Southeast.
Several rounds of thunderstorms, and possible severe episodes, will
be possible throughout the day on Friday. However, the severe threat
is expected to increase markedly by around 06z along and ahead of
the eastward-advancing cold front from the FL Panhandle into
portions of eastern AL and southern/central GA. Damaging gusts, hail
and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Friday morning/afternoon: northern FL/southern GA...

The surface warm front is expected to extend from near the MS/AL
coast eastward along the FL/GA border Friday morning and slowly lift
northward through the afternoon. Clusters of thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing Friday morning and continue periodically through
the afternoon in a strong warm advection regime. Some of this
activity will be elevated. However, increasing vertical shear and a persistently increasing low-level jet will support transient
organized cells and clusters. This initial activity may produce
sporadic damaging gusts and hail. As low-level shear increases
during the afternoon along with 0-3 km MLCAPE, a couple of tornadoes
also will be possible.

...Friday evening/overnight into Saturday morning: central Gulf
Coast to northern FL/Carolinas...

Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the surface cold
front across southeast LA late Friday afternoon as large-scale
ascent increases, and stronger surface cyclogenesis commences.
Isolated damaging gusts and hail will be possible with this activity
as it shifts northeast toward southern MS. As the upper trough
ejects eastward, deep-layer shear, and the low-level jet, will
increase markedly by 06z. Bowing segments may become better
organized along the cold front and near the surface low across parts
of central/southern AL into GA and SC overnight, with an attendant
increase in damaging wind potential. Further south across parts of
the FL Panhandle/Big Bend vicinity into southwest GA, greater
instability and larger low-level hodographs appear more favorable
for tornadoes, in addition to damaging gusts during the last few
hours of the forecast period. Confidence has increased sufficiently
such that an upgrade to an Enhanced risk has been included with the
Day 2 update.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 110647
SWODY2
SPC AC 110645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR EASTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
possible from northern Florida and southeast Georgia into the
eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. The main threat is expected
Saturday morning, possibly extending into the early afternoon near
the Atlantic coast and across the Florida Peninsula.

...North-central Florida/Southeast Georgia/Eastern
Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Saturday as a powerful 100 to 120 knot
mid-level jet moves quickly northeastward from the central Gulf
Coast to the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to be positioned at 12Z/Saturday from the eastern Florida
Panhandle to the central Carolinas to Maryland. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints should be mostly in the 60s F from northern
Florida to eastern North Carolina. A squall line should be ongoing
at the start of the period near the front, and this feature will
move quickly eastward across northern Florida, southeast Georgia and
the eastern Carolinas during the morning.

The mid-level jet is forecast to translate quickly northeastward
into the eastern Carolinas during the morning, where instability and
shear will become maximized. Due to this, the greatest severe threat
associated with the line is forecast to be in the eastern Carolinas
Saturday morning. A band of focused large-scale ascent combined with
very strong wind fields will be favorable for wind damage along the
more intense parts of the squall line, as it approaches the coast. A
tornado threat will also be possible with rotating cells embedded in
the line. Further south into northern and central Florida, a
wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will also accompany the
leading edge of the squall line. But the severe threat should be a
bit more isolated in north-central Florida due to lessening lift and
shear with southward extent.

..Broyles.. 03/11/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 111711
SWODY2
SPC AC 111710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Fri Mar 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
possible from northern Florida and southeast Georgia into the
eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. The main threat is expected
Saturday morning, possibly extending into the early afternoon near
the Atlantic coast and across the Florida Peninsula.

...North-central FL/Eastern Carolinas/Delmarva Vicinity...

A potent large-scale mid/upper trough will extend from the Upper
Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast Saturday morning. A 100+ kt
midlevel jet will be oriented from the central Gulf Coast into the
Carolinas at the beginning of the period and quickly shift offshore
from the Atlantic Seaboard during the afternoon as the upper trough
ejects eastward. In the lower levels, a 50+ kt southwesterly
low-level jet will extend from northern FL northeast across
southeast GA and into the NC/SC coastal plains and southeast VA. A
surface low will be located over eastern NC with a cold front
trailing to the south/southwest into southeast GA and northwest FL.
While deep-layer flow will largely be unidirectional and parallel to
the eastward-advancing surface cold front, intense speed shear will
result in effective shear magnitudes greater than 50+ kt. This will
support an organized QLCS with embedded rotating cells possible,
posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

The greatest threat will exist during the first 3-6 hours of the
forecast period, with the greatest coverage of damaging wind
potential expected from eastern NC/SC into far southeast VA close to
the surface low. Instability will remain weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE)
due to limited heating and poor lapse rates. Some modest low-level
inhibition may temper downward transport of stronger winds somewhat,
but 60+ kt within several hundred feet of the surface combined with
fast-moving convection should overcome this. A moist boundary layer
with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and large, favorably-curved
low-level hodographs will further support a few tornadoes.

Large-scale forcing will diminish with southward extent into FL.
However, vertical shear will remain moderate to strong through the
day. Stronger diurnal heating is also likely across parts of the northern/central peninsula ahead of the cold front. This should
allow for isolated organized convection continuing with southward
extent into the afternoon. A mix of multicells and semi-discrete
convection will pose a risk of damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and
isolated hail.

..Leitman.. 03/11/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 120633
SWODY2
SPC AC 120632

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are forecast across the continental United States
from Sunday into Sunday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West on Sunday as an upper-level ridge moves into the Mississippi
Valley. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be in
place across the eastern third of the nation. This will limit
moisture return into the Gulf Coast states, keeping a dry and stable
airmass in place over much of the nation. For this reason,
thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental United States
Sunday or Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 03/12/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 121637
SWODY2
SPC AC 121635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are forecast across the continental United States
Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough will rapidly depart the Northeast and
Canadian Maritimes region with temporary height rises across the
East. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will dive southeastward across
the Rockies, approaching the High Plains by 12Z Monday with
substantial cooling aloft and a backside jet max over UT and AZ.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the
Southeast, with gradually veering surface winds over the Gulf Of
Mexico in advance of the aforementioned shortwave trough to the
west. This will occur in response to lowering pressure over the
Plains, but instability is not forecast to support thunderstorms
this early in the moisture return cycle.

..Jewell.. 03/12/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 130643
SWODY2
SPC AC 130641

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Sun Mar 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and isolated wind damage
are expected to develop across parts of east Texas and the Arklatex
Monday afternoon and evening.

...East Texas/Arklatex...
An upper-level trough will move from the southern Rockies eastward
to the southern Plains on Monday, as a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet
moves through the base of the trough. At the surface, a cold front
will advance quickly southeastward across the southern Plains, as
low-level moisture streams northward into east Texas and western
Louisiana. Surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 55 to 60 F
range across parts of northeast Texas by late afternoon. A corridor
of moderate instability may develop ahead of the front across parts
of east Texas. Convection is expected to initiate along the
northwestern edge of this corridor of instability near the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metro around 00Z/Tuesday. Thunderstorms will
increase in intensity and move eastward across northeast Texas.
Other storms should develop further south across parts of east Texas
during the early evening. A complex of storms should move across the
Arklatex from mid evening into the early overnight period.

The left exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to move across
northeast Texas Monday afternoon. This will increase lift and
deep-layer shear, which will coincide with increasing instability.
This will make conditions favorable for severe storms by late
afternoon. During the late afternoon, NAM forecast soundings to the
southeast of Dallas have MLCAPE reaching 1000 J/kg, 0-6 km shear
peaking near 75 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching the 7.5 to
8.0 C/km range. This should support supercell and large-hail
development. The potential for large hail should be greatest during
the late afternoon and early evening as instability becomes
maximized. Supercells may also produce isolated damaging wind gusts.
One limiting factor is that low-level moisture will not have much
time to return northward ahead of the approaching system. This could
limit severe threat coverage and magnitude. The severe threat
should become more isolated as a complex of strong storms moves
eastward into southwest Arkansas western Louisiana during the mid to
late evening.

..Broyles.. 03/13/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 131707
SWODY2
SPC AC 131705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Sun Mar 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce large hail, isolated wind damage or a
tornado or two across parts of east Texas and the Arklatex Monday
afternoon and evening.

...Texas into the Arklatex...
Thunderstorm chances will be focused from parts of TX toward the
lower MS Valley on Monday as a shortwave trough moves from CO/NM
across OK and TX. A cyclonically curved speed max with strong
cooling aloft will spread across northwest TX during the afternoon
and across the remainder of northern and eastern TX during the
evening hours. Very steep lapse rates will develop ahead of a cold
front where heating will be strong, emanating out of southwest TX
and extending into western north TX by late afternoon.

Boundary layer moisture will not be particularly robust given the
early stages of moisture return around the surface high to the east,
but the combination of steepening lapse rates and mid 50s F
(daytime) to lower 60s F dewpoints (overnight) will lead to MLCAPE
of 500 to 750 J/kg ahead of a surging cold front.

High-based convection is likely to develop during the peak heating
hours across northwest TX where lapse rates will be very steep, with
minimal moisture in the veered surface flow. This activity could
produce gusty winds or very small hail. As lift with the front
continues east, storm coverage should increase as better boundary
layer moisture is encountered. Isolated storms, possibly supercells,
may develop just ahead of this activity, and/or in association with
it, across north TX. During the late afternoon and early evening,
capping is expected to be negligible, and 850 mb winds will have
increased to 30-40 kt. A small area of tornado potential may develop
just east of the low-level lapse rate plume where access to
surface-based parcels will be maximized, and where effective SRH
will increase to 300-400 m2/s2. Eastward progression of severe risk
may be limited by cooler surface temperatures into AR and LA, but
hail will remain a risk.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 140554
SWODY2
SPC AC 140552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Mon Mar 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms accompanied with marginally severe gusts will be
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the Florida
Peninsula.

...Florida Peninsula...
An upper-level low is forecast to develop in the Arklatex and move
into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Moisture advection
will take place ahead of the system across the central and eastern
Gulf Coast where surface dewpoints should be in the lower to mid 60s
F. During the day, a band of convection is forecast to move across
the northern edge of this moist airmass from far southeast Louisiana
eastward across the central Gulf Coast. Other storms appear likely
to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, moving eastward across the
central Florida Peninsula during the afternoon and evening. Although
strong deep-layer shear will likely be in place from the central
Gulf Coast to the central Florida Peninsula, instability is expected
to remain weak. Also, the system is forecast to be slower and
further south, which will keep the stronger large-scale ascent
further west. For this reason, storm development is expected to
remain marginally organized, with a corresponding severe threat. A
few strong wind gusts could accompany the more intense line segments
that are able to move over land.

..Broyles.. 03/14/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 150547
SWODY2
SPC AC 150545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat is expected across parts of the Southeast
on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
While an upper trough digs gradually southeastward across the
Intermountain West on Wednesday, an upper low is forecast to move
steadily east-northeastward across the southeastern states,
weakening with time and reaching the western Carolinas by 17/12Z.

At the surface, a cold front accompanying the western trough is
forecast to advance eastward across the northern and central Plains,
and southward across the southern Rockies/southwestern states. By
the end of the period, the front should stretch from the Upper Great
Lakes southwestward to West Texas. Meanwhile in the Southeast, only
a very weak surface reflection of the upper system is anticipated.
A weak low near the central Gulf Coast at the start of the period is
forecast to drift northeastward with time, roughly in tandem with
the upper system. As this occurs, a somewhat ill-defined warm front
will shift northeastward across northern Florida into southern and
central Georgia. Overnight, the warm front will shift into/across
the Carolinas, while a diffuse cold front extends westward from the
low across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the
period.

...The Southeast...
A moist boundary layer -- but weak low-level lapse rates -- are
forecast to prevail across most of the Southeast Wednesday. Some
cooling aloft with the upper system will result in modest steepening
of mid-level lapse rates, which -- along with diurnal heating, will
permit some afternoon destabilization. As such, an increase in shower/thunderstorm activity is forecast through peak heating across
the area.

Moderately strong mid-level southwesterlies (generally 45 to 55 kt)
will overspread the area as the upper low advances, allowing a few
storms to organize through the afternoon. However, with the weak
surface low anticipated, surface winds will likewise remain weak for
the most part. This should limit potential for low-level rotation,
especially away from backed low-level winds in the vicinity of the
warm front. With tornado potential therefore fairly low, and hail
risk also likely marginal given overall modest lapse rates away from
the upper low itself, gusty winds will likely be the primary severe
risk. Still, wind potential should remain confined to a few of the
stronger afternoon storms, as the weak background low-level flow and
little indication of substantial potential for upscale linear growth
of storms should preclude more widespread potential.

..Goss.. 03/15/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 151721
SWODY2
SPC AC 151720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
Southeast on Wednesday. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the main
hazards with these storms from afternoon into Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...

A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough over the southern
U.S. Wednesday morning will pivot northeast toward the Carolinas by
early Thursday morning. Corresponding moderate deep-layer
south/southwesterly flow will overspread much of FL, GA and the
Carolinas ahead of the upper low, resulting in a warm advection
regime across much of the Southeast. Stronger surface cyclogenesis
is not expected and a weak low over AL early Wednesday is forecast
to weaken through the day. A somewhat ill-defined warm front will
extend roughly west to east across north-central GA into the SC
Lowcountry during the morning, and spread into portions of eastern
NC through the afternoon/evening. A diffuse cold front will sweep
eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity during the
afternoon and overnight hours, extending from far eastern NC/Outer
Banks southwest to central FL by Thursday morning.

...AL/GA/Carolinas...

Modest low-level moisture will reside over parts of AL and GA with
forecast dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Higher
dewpoints will be in place across FL into southeast GA and later,
the eastern Carolinas. Combined with cooling aloft as the upper low
shift northeast, moderate midlevel lapse rates (7-7.5 C/km) will
overspread the region. This will aid in modest destabilization, with
MLCAPE values ranging from around 500-1000 J/kg. Given the lack of
stronger surface cyclogenesis, low-level winds will remain weak
through the lowest 1-2 km. Nevertheless, moderate midlevel winds
around 35-45 kt will support at least briefly organized cells and
bowing segments, especially near the upper low center and along the
surface warm front. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards
with this activity Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours.

...FL...

Large-scale ascent and vertical shear will be weaker across FL as
the upper low ejects well to the northeast. However, a moist airmass
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and midlevel lapse rates around 7-8
C/km will aid in MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Strong heating
along sea breeze boundaries across the eastern Peninsula should
result in at least a few storms. Elongated forecast soundings and
25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes in the presence of moderate
instability suggest an isolated threat for severe hail and locally
strong gusts will exist during the afternoon.

..Leitman.. 03/15/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible across parts of the Southeast
Wednesday, while a few strong/locally severe storms may also affect
portions of the central Appalachians/Mid and Upper Ohio Valleys.

...Synopsis...
Gradual eastward progression of the upper trough/low over the
central U.S. is expected Wednesday. At smaller scales, one embedded
vort max/jet streak is forecast to eject northeastward into/across
the Ohio Valley area and eventually across the Lower Great Lakes
region into Canada, while a second rounds the base of the trough
over northern Mexico/southern Texas. Meanwhile, stout ridging will
flank the trough -- over the western U.S. and over the western
Atlantic/New England states -- contributing to the overall, highly
amplified pattern across the U.S., and more broadly the North
American continent.

At the surface, an occluded low will reside over the northern
Illinois vicinity, which should drift northeastward toward northern
Lower Michigan through the period. The occluded front will shift
northeastward across the Ohio Valley through the day, while the cold
front shifts slowly eastward across the Southeast, and eventually
east of the central/southern Appalachians through the second half of
the period.

...Portions of the Southeast...
Thunderstorms -- and local severe-weather risk -- will be ongoing at
the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians south to the
Florida Panhandle. As a surface warm front gradually shifts
northeastward out of Georgia and across the Carolinas through the
day, modest destabilization will support a northeastward
continuation of convection, and associated severe-weather potential.
Presuming that ongoing precipitation and cloud cover do not inhibit
at least modest surface-based CAPE from developing, the background
kinematic environment will support organized/rotating storms, and
associated risk for locally damaging winds and a couple of
tornadoes. At this time, will maintain low-end SLGT risk
probabilities, but if somewhat greater destabilization potential
becomes evident over parts of the area in later outlooks,
corresponding greater threat could warrant an increase in risk
levels.

...Ohio Valley southeastward into the Appalachians...
Modest airmass destabilization is expected during the day across the
mid Ohio Valley and southeastward into the mountains, as steepening
lapse rates aloft overspread the area, atop low-level theta-e
advection. At this time, it appears that the boundary layer may
remain slightly stable in most areas, which would tend to limit
wind/tornado potential that otherwise would be supported by the
kinematic environment. Still, potential for hail -- and
low-end/conditional probability for gusty winds or a brief tornado
-- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this region. Should it
appear in later outlooks that greater boundary-layer heating -- and
thus the possibility of more widespread surface-based
destabilization -- may occur, risk could require an upward nudge to
higher probability.

..Goss.. 03/22/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 221718
SWODY2
SPC AC 221716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible across parts of the Southeast
Wednesday, while a few strong/locally severe storms may also affect
portions of the central Appalachians/Mid and Upper Ohio Valleys.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern early Wednesday morning is forecast to feature a deep,
positively tilted upper trough extending from Ontario into central
Mexico. A lead shortwave trough embedded within this large parent
upper trough is expected to move quickly northeastward from the
Lower MS Valley across the Mid South, Lower/Middle OH Valley, and
Lower Great Lakes. A second shortwave trough will follow quickly in
the wake of the first, moving through northwest Mexico and south TX.
This overall pattern evolution will help maintain the deep troughing
across the central CONUS throughout the period, while also helping
to sustained very strong mid-level flow throughout its eastern
periphery. 500 mb winds near 100 kt will persist from the Lower MS
Valley into the Middle OH Valley from Wednesday morning through
early Thursday.

At the surface, an occluded low is forecast to begin the day
centered over the Mid MS Valley. This low is expected to further
occlude throughout the day, while the progress of the lead shortwave
trough contributes to secondary cyclogenesis near the triple point.
This second, weaker low will likely move from eastern KY into the
Delmarva region from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A cold
front attendant to this low will begin the period stretched from
central KY southward to the western FL Panhandle. This front is
expected to move eastward throughout the day and overnight, likely
extending from the Delmarva south-southwestward into central FL by
early Thursday.

...Southeast into the Carolinas...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from eastern TN
southward to the western FL Panhandle. Widespread clouds and poor
lapse rates may limit downstream destabilization across GA and the
Carolinas ahead of this line, but abundant low-level moisture will
support at least modest buoyancy. A linear convective mode is
expected to dominant these storms, and vertical shear will be strong
and supportive of more intense updrafts capable of damaging wind
gusts and potentially few instances of embedded QLCS tornadoes.
Limited destabilization is currently tempering overall severe
probabilities. However, if confidence in greater boundary-layer
heating and destabilization increases, greater severe probabilities
may be warranted across GA and SC.

...Ohio Valley...
Air mass destabilization is anticipated across the Middle OH Valley
amid strong diurnal heating in the wake of early morning showers and cloudiness. Dewpoints will likely be rather modest (i.e. in the
upper 50s), but steep low-level lapse rates and cold temperatures
aloft (i.e. -18 to -20 deg C at 500 mb) will still support moderate
buoyancy. Forcing for ascent along the front will be augmented by
favored jet streak dynamics, and the expectation is for cellular
development along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Large
hail and strong wind gusts are the most probable severe hazards, but
a tornado or two is also possible.

..Mosier.. 03/22/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 230553
SWODY2
SPC AC 230552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic
region southward across the Southern Atlantic Coast region to the
northern half of Florida.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough over the central U.S. is forecast to advance
steadily eastward Thursday. As it does, an associated cold front --
lying east of the Appalachians and trailing southward from an
occluded low over Virginia early in the period -- will likewise
progress steadily eastward. By the end of the period, the front
will likely have cleared the Eastern Seaboard, lingering only over
far southern Florida and the Keys by early Friday morning.

Elsewhere, ridging is forecast to expand across the West, helping to
maintain the overall, highly amplified pattern across the U.S.
through the period.

...Middle and southern Atlantic Coastal region, including much of
Florida...
As a surface cold front -- east of the mountains at the start of the
period -- shifts eastward with time, convection ongoing at the start
of the period will likewise progress across the East Coast states
and into the western Atlantic. At this time, considerable
uncertainty is evident as to coverage and expanse of the pre-frontal convection, with some models indicating much of the convection
already offshore at the start of the period, while others showing
convection -- and some associated severe potential -- still inland.

In addition, some of the faster solutions indicate hints of frontal redevelopment behind the initial convection, though questions as to
airmass quality -- and thus convective intensity -- would exist with
such development.

Overall, modest CAPE seems likely across most of the area with the
exception of Florida, but with a kinematic environment supportive of
organized updrafts. As such, a local severe risk (in the form of
locally strong wind gusts and possibly a tornado) with any stronger
storm is apparent. This potential should gradually diminish after
peak heating -- due to both eastward/offshore advance of convection,
and the diurnal decrease of any existing instability. At this time,
due to uncertainties regarding the preceding convective
evolution/progression, will maintain the MRGL risk category.

Across Florida, somewhat greater instability is forecast. However,
with the deep-layer wind field less supportive of updraft
organization, and weakening convergence ahead of the trailing front
with time as low-level flow gradually veers, coverage of stronger
storms should remain local/isolated. Thus, risk for locally
damaging winds and possibly a tornado still appears to reside at the
MRGL category at this time.

..Goss.. 03/23/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 231726
SWODY2
SPC AC 231724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms will be possible through midday over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, extending southward along the
Atlantic Coast, and during the afternoon over parts of
northern/eastern Florida.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough will extend from the upper Great Lakes into
eastern TX at 18Z, with a strong upper jet running parallel to and
moving across the Appalachians. Winds around 850 mb are expected to
average 40-50 kt out of the south along the Atlantic Coast,
enhancing shear, with a weak secondary surface low over VA. A cold
front will push east across the Carolinas and rapidly south across
northern FL during the day, with limited instability along northern
portions of the front. Stronger instability will exist in a diurnal
sense across FL, where heating will be stronger. Rain and
thunderstorms are expected throughout the day along the front, and a
few could be strong to severe.

...MD/DE...Eastern Virginia/Carolinas...
Scatted showers and storms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of
the front, aided by low-level warm advection. Forecast soundings
show strong low-level shear for a few hours Thursday morning before
veering takes place, ending any threat. A strong wind gust is
possible Thursday morning with the ongoing storms given the strength
of the flow, and a brief QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out with any
line segments as effective SRH will exceed 200 m2/s2.

...FL...
Rain and storms are likely to be ongoing along the front Thursday
morning over northern FL, with undercutting outflow likely. A few
stronger cores may exist along the front, producing gusty winds or
small hail, but lapse rates aloft will not be particularly steep.
Later in the day, strong heating will occur over the southern half
of the Peninsula, and this will lead to diurnal convection after 18Z
over central portions of the state. Isolated storms may briefly
become strong to marginally severe as they shift toward the Atlantic
Coast, with threat ending by 00Z.

..Jewell.. 03/23/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 240557
SWODY2
SPC AC 240555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. on Friday.

...Discussion...
Longwave troughing will be maintained over the eastern U.S. Friday,
as the initial/primary trough shifts offshore, while a second
short-wave feature continues digging southeastward -- into the Great Lakes/Midwest through the end of the period. As this occurs,
western U.S. ridging will be maintained, and thus a persistence of
the fairly high-amplitude flow field over the U.S. through Saturday
morning.

At the surface, a cold front -- emanating from a low progged to lie
just off the New England coast at the start of the period, will
likely have cleared the East Coast by the start of the period, with
the possible exception of far southern Florida and the Keys. In the
wake of the front, high pressure will prevail over much of the
country.

Given the high pressure/subsidence, and prevalence of cold
continental Polar air spreading southeastward in the wake of the
front, stable conditions are expected, precluding appreciable
thunder potential. A storm or two may reside in the vicinity of the
southern Florida coast/Keys at the start of the period, but should
shift south and east away from these areas through the morning. As
such, thunder potential should remain below 10%, precluding any need
to include a thunder area.

..Goss.. 03/24/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 241710
SWODY2
SPC AC 241709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is unlikely across the U.S. on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A mean upper trough will exist across the eastern CONUS on Friday,
with a leading shortwave exiting the Mid Atlantic and another
dropping southeast across the upper MS Valley. Meanwhile, an upper
ridge will exist over the West. This pattern will foster offshore
flow over the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast, resulting in stable
conditions.

..Jewell.. 03/24/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 250536
SWODY2
SPC AC 250534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is forecast to feature western CONUS riding and
eastern CONUS troughing early Saturday morning. A shortwave trough
is expected to begin the period centered over the OH Valley, before
then progressing eastward through the northern Mid-Atlantic by
Saturday evening. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in
the wake of the first, moving southeastward from the Upper Midwest
to off the Mid-Atlantic Saturday night into Sunday morning. Farther
west, the upper ridging initially in place over the Intermountain
West is expected to gradually progress eastward, ending the period
extended from northern Mexico into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan.

At the surface, northerly/northeasterly winds will persist
throughout much of the central and eastern CONUS as an expansive
area of high pressure initially centered over the Canadian Prairie
Provinces expands southeastward over much of the eastern CONUS. Some
lee troughing in anticipated across the central and southern High
Plains, with southerly winds then induced across the southern
Plains. Even so, moisture return will be minimal.

These conditions should keep thunderstorm potential very low across
the CONUS. Shallow convection is anticipated across the northern
Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast as the lead shortwave moves through.
A few lightning flashes are possible, but coverage should remain
less than 10 percent.

..Mosier.. 03/25/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 251728
SWODY2
SPC AC 251726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely across the U.S. on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Strong northwest flow aloft will exist over the Plains and into the
Southeast, with upper ridging over the West and a deep trough over
the Northeast. A prominent surface high will remain over the Gulf of
Mexico, with strong offshore flow along the East Coast as well. This
will result in stable air over the majority of the CONUS, with no
threat of severe storms.

Given very cold midlevel temperatures over parts of the Mid Atlantic
and Northeast beneath the upper trough, daytime heating could result
in weak instability as lapse rates will be very steep. Shallow
convection is forecast roughly from eastern PA into southern New
England during the peak heating hours. Subtle surface convergence
may be enough to support showers, a few of which may produce
lightning flashes and graupel.

..Jewell.. 03/25/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 260519
SWODY2
SPC AC 260518

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to extend from northwest Mexico
northwestward into British Columbia early Sunday morning. Upper
troughing is anticipated to be in place from Ontario/Quebec
southeastward off the northern Mid-Atlantic, with a belt of strong northwesterly flow in between this upper troughing and the western
CONUS upper ridging. Gradual eastward progression of both the upper
ridge and upper trough is expected throughout the period as a deep
upper troughing, and an embedded upper low, approach the West Coast.

The surface pattern will feature expansive ridging over much of the north-central and eastern CONUS throughout the period, promoting
stable conditions. Lee troughing across High Plains will contribute
to southerly flow across the southern Plains. Some modest moisture
return is anticipated as a result of this southerly flow, but stable
conditions are expected to persist across this region as well.

Some limited buoyancy may develop across the Cascades, where modest
low-level moisture is anticipated beneath fairly cold temperatures
aloft. A few lightning flashes could occur during the late afternoon
and evening over this region, but most showers are expected to be
shallow, and overall thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to
remain below 10 percent.

..Mosier.. 03/26/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 261657
SWODY2
SPC AC 261655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Sat Mar 26 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper-level pattern will exist over the CONUS on Sunday
with a ridge centered from the Pacific Northwest to the southern
Rockies and a trough over the eastern states. These systems will
slowly shift eastward as a closed upper low and attendant shortwave
trough migrate toward the CA coast late in the period. At the
surface, high pressure will extend across much of the central U.S.
with modest lee troughing over the High Plains. Southerly low-level
flow will result in modest moisture return across the eastern half
of TX toward south-central OK. However, stable conditions will
preclude thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, as the upper ridge axis
shifts eastward over the northern Rockies, relatively cold
temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates over
parts of WA/OR. In combination with increasing midlevel moisture on southwesterly deep-layer flow, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of western WA/OR in the vicinity of the
Cascades.

..Leitman.. 03/26/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 270558
SWODY2
SPC AC 270557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
southern California and the nearby Southwest, in addition to
portions of the northern Intermountain West.

...Synopsis...
An amplified yet progressive large-scale flow regime will exist over
the CONUS on Monday. Upper ridging will shift eastward over the
Great Plains in advance of a southern-stream trough overspreading
California and the Southwest deserts.

...Western States...
Given the previously described scenario, increasing forcing for
ascent and increasing mid-level moisture in conjunction with cold
temperatures aloft will support weak buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms. This will particularly be across parts of
central/southern California, parts of Nevada, and potentially as far
east as the mountains of northern Arizona Monday late
afternoon/night.

Thunderstorms are also expected across the northern Intermountain
West, with the region at least glancingly influenced by a
northern-stream shortwave trough. Isolated thunderstorms currently
appear most probable across portions of eastern Oregon,
western/northern Idaho and western Montana, particularly Monday
afternoon through early evening.

...Lower Missouri Valley late Monday night/early Tuesday...
Upper heights will begin to fall with a nocturnally increasing
low-level jet and a degree of mid-level moistening late Monday
night/early Tuesday. A few elevated thunderstorms could form at the
very end of the period (circa 10-12z Tuesday). However, current
expectations are that stout mid-level capping will likely persist
with thunderstorm chances remaining low through 12z Tuesday.

..Guyer.. 03/27/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 271657
SWODY2
SPC AC 271656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and
southern California and the nearby Southwest, in addition to
portions of the northern Intermountain West.

...Synopsis...

An upper-level ridge oriented from the northern Rockies to the
southern High Plains Monday morning will shift east as a closed low
off the CA coast spreads inland toward the Southwest. A northern
stream upper shortwave trough also will shift east across the
Canadian Rockies, glancing the Pacific Northwest vicinity.
Increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow will bring increasing
midlevel moisture to parts of CA and the Southwestern Deserts. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates, aiding
in weak instability (100-250 J/kg MLCAPE). This should be sufficient
for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from late afternoon
into Monday night across parts of CA/NV/UT/AZ. Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern Rockies
in association with the northern stream shortwave trough. Severe
storms are not expected.

Strengthening surface low pressure along the High Plains late
Monday/early Tuesday will support increasing northward low-level
moisture transport on increasing southerly flow. Modest instability
will exist above a stout capping inversion. Capping and weak
large-scale ascent should preclude thunderstorm activity across the south-central states until after 12z Tuesday.

..Leitman.. 03/27/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 280545
SWODY2
SPC AC 280544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and
southern Great Plains and Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday late
afternoon and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough is forecast to extend from southern CA/northern
Baja northeastward into Saskatchewan early Tuesday morning. This
upper trough is expected to progress eastward throughout the day as
an embedded shortwave trough moves across the Southwest into the
southern Plains. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this
shortwave, spreading eastward/northeastward into the southern and
central Plains ahead of the trough.

Lee troughing is also expected to deepen ahead of the shortwave,
with surface cyclogenesis anticipated early in the day over the
central High Plains. The resulting low is then forecast to move
eastward along the KS/NE border during the day before then moving
more northeastward across IA.

At the same time, low-level moisture is expected to advect northward
across the southern and central Plans and adjacent Lower/Mid MS
Valley. Thunderstorms are expected across the region as the
approaching shortwave trough and associated surface low interact
with this moisture and resulting buoyancy.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
By Tuesday afternoon, the expectation is for the surface low to be
over the central NE/KS border vicinity. A dryline will extend from
this low south-southwestward through central KS into western OK and
northwest TX, and a cold front will extend southwestward through
western KS. Afternoon convective initiation along the dryline
remains uncertain, owing to the strong capping and relatively modest
low-level moisture (due to both somewhat limited moisture advection
and diurnal mixing). Even if afternoon initiation is realized,
dry-air entrainment would likely lead to strong outflow and short
updraft duration.

Increasing potential for convective initiation is forecast for later
Tuesday evening as large-scale forcing for ascent increases and
low-level moisture continues to advect northward. Initial convective
initiation appears most likely across central/eastern KS, with an
initially cellular mode quickly evolving into a more linear/outflow
dominant structure. Hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to be
the primary hazards.

Higher overall storm coverage is expected farther south from central
OK into central and east TX as storms quickly develop along the
front Tuesday evening. A linear storm mode is favored, with the
resulting line moving quickly eastward across OK and north/central
TX. Hail is favored with the initial development, while damaging
winds are more likely later within the convective line. A strong
low-level jet over the region supports the potential for a few line-embedded/QLCS tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 03/28/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 281730
SWODY2
SPC AC 281729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and
southern Great Plains and Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday evening into
early Wednesday morning.

...Synopsis...

A deep mid/upper trough over the western U.S. will pivot eastward
into the Plains on Tuesday. A shortwave embedded within the basal
portion of the larger-scale trough will spread a 70-90 kt
south/southwesterly jet streak over the southern Plains late in the
period. Meanwhile at the surface, lee cyclogenesis will intensify
over the central High Plains through the day. This will aid in
strengthening low-level southerly flow across the southern/central
Plains. Northward transport of modest boundary-layer moisture is
expected ahead of dryline extending south/southwest from the surface
low from central KS into western OK/TX. By late afternoon/early
evening, a cold front will be located across western KS and surge
southeast during the evening/overnight, eventually overtaking the
dryline across OK and north TX late in the period.

...Central/Southern Plains Vicinity...

Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest on Tuesday, with surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60 F ahead of the surface
boundaries. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will aid in
destabilization, with a corridor of 750-1500 J/kg MLCAPE forecast
from northwest/central TX through central OK and into eastern KS.
A very pronounced capping inversion will likely preclude convection
through peak heating along the dryline despite increasing ascent.
Even if convection tries to develop along the dryline, dry air
between 850-700 mb will prove hostile to maintaining updrafts long
enough to support robust convection before 00z.

As the midlevel shortwave trough ejects eastward during the evening,
initial thunderstorms development is expected in the vicinity of the
surface low/triple point across northeast KS/southeast NE/southwest
IA most likely between 00z-03z. Very steep lapse rates and supercell
wind profiles will initially support cells capable of large hail. As
the cap erodes quickly during the evening, cells may quickly grow
upscale into bows, posing a threat of isolated damaging gusts.

Subsequent convection is then expected to develop along the cold
front/dryline by 03z across eastern KS into western/central OK and northwest/central TX. Initial supercells will pose a threat for
large hail. As low-level flow veers with time and a low-level jet
increases during the nighttime hours, these initial cells will
quickly transition into bowing segments and a QLCS is expected to
track eastward across central/eastern OK and north TX toward the
ArkLaTex vicinity by Wednesday morning. Damaging gusts and tornadoes
(within embedded supercells or via mesovortex processes) will be the
main hazards overnight.

..Leitman.. 03/28/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 290555
SWODY2
SPC AC 290554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast States. All severe
hazards are possible, including significant gusts over 75 mph and
strong (EF2+) tornadoes.

...SEVERE-WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...

...Synopsis...
A strong southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from
central KS through the TX Hill Country early Wednesday morning. This
shortwave is expected to progress eastward/northeastward throughout
the day, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong
mid-level flow will accompany this through, with 100+ kt at 500 mb
stretching from southeast TX northeastward through the Mid-South
Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, very strong low-level flow will
precede this feature, with a large area of 60+ kt at 850 mb expected
across the MS Valley Wednesday afternoon.

Low-level moisture advection will also precede this shortwave
trough, bringing at least low 60s dewpoints through the Mid-South/TN
Valley. Upper 50s dewpoints will likely reach into the Lower/Middle
OH Valley. These dewpoints will help foster at least modest buoyancy
and thunderstorms are anticipated as the shortwave ejects
northeastward over this moist and buoyant airmass. Given the
strength of the wind fields, severe thunderstorms are likely,
particularly across portions of the Lower MS Valley and Southeast
where a regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is anticipated.

...Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast...
A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the Ozark
Plateau southwestward into East TX early Wednesday. Expectation is
for this line of storms to quickly move eastward, outpacing a cold
front moving southeastward into the MS Valley. Widespread clouds
will limit diurnal heating downstream of this line of storms, but
strong moisture advection will still result in at least modest
buoyancy and airmass destabilization. At the same time, wind fields
will strengthen considerably. This combination of buoyancy and very
strong wind shear is forecast to result in a strengthening of the
line as it moves into eastern AR and LA during the early afternoon,
before then continuing quickly eastward across MS and AL during the
evening and overnight.

The kinematic fields, especially in the low-levels around 850 to 700
mb, are forecast to be very intense. Mean wind speeds from the HREF
show a corridor of 70 kt at 850 mb from central LA into southeast AR
at 18Z. Deep-layer mean winds are forecast to be 65+ kt across much
of LA, MS, and AL as the line moves through. Expectation is that
these robust wind fields will result in an intense convective line
capable of widespread wind damage. Embedded/QLCS tornadoes are also
likely within this environment, including the potential for strong
tornadoes (EF2+). Fast storm motion could result in longer-track
QLCS tornadoes than are typically observed.

In addition to the strong wind gusts and embedded QLCS tornadoes,
discrete supercells ahead of and/or south of the primary convective
line are also possible. Any discrete storm that is able to mature
and deepen would likely become an intense supercell capable of
producing severe wind gusts and strong tornadoes. However, the
forcing for ascent and fast-moving character of the shortwave (as
well as the convective line) do not favor a discrete convective
mode, and the current expectation is for the linear mode to
dominate.

..Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH Valleys...
Less low-level moisture and buoyancy is anticipated in the region
compared to farther south. However, strong forcing for ascent should
help maintain the convective line as it moves eastward through the
region. Strong wind fields support the potential for damaging wind
gusts with any deep convection, even in areas that exhibit shallow
low-level stability.

..Mosier.. 03/29/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 291732
SWODY2
SPC AC 291730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...EASTERN ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN
TENNESSEE...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. All severe
hazards are possible, including widespread damaging winds, some over
75 mph, and several tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+).

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will eject from the southern Plains across the
lower/mid MS Valley on Wednesday while acquiring a negative tilt. An
80-100+ kt south-southwesterly mid-level jet will accompany the
shortwave trough passage. Low-level southerly flow is also expected
to be very strong, with 50-70+ kt winds forecast at 850 mb. The
primary surface low should be located over IA at the start of the
period, with a cold front extending southward from this low across
the central/southern Plains. A secondary surface low in closer
proximity to the shortwave trough is forecast to develop from
eastern OK to the Mid-South vicinity by Wednesday evening.

At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are expected to return
northward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the
secondary surface low, with the surface warm sector becoming
increasingly pinched off with northward extent into the mid MS and
OH Valleys. With strong forcing for ascent associated with the
shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector through the day,
thunderstorms will develop and move east-northeastward ahead of the
cold front while posing a threat for both widespread damaging winds
and several tornadoes.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast...
A line of convection aided by strong low-level warm advection will
likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the Ozarks
southward across AR to east TX. This activity should continue to
pose a threat for at least isolated damaging winds and tornadoes as
it moves eastward Wednesday morning. Fairly widespread cloud cover
ahead of the line and modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the
degree of destabilization to some extent. Still, the increasing
low-level moisture in tandem with filtered diurnal heating are
expected to aid in sufficient boundary-layer destabilization to
support surface-based storms. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should
develop ahead of the line across LA into MS and surrounding areas by
early Wednesday afternoon.

This QLCS should strengthen Wednesday afternoon as it moves across
northeastern LA, eastern AR, southeastern MO, and into much of the
lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Aided by strengthening low/mid-level
flow, increasing low-level and deep-layer shear will both become
very strong, supporting updraft organization. With a primarily
linear storm mode expected, widespread severe/damaging winds appear
likely. The presence of a 50-70+ kt south-southwesterly low-level
jet, and even stronger flow up to 75 kt at 700 mb, should enhance
the prospects for significant severe wind gusts of 75+ mph at the
surface within the most intense portions of the line Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Very favorable low-level shear and elongated/sickle-shaped hodographs in the boundary layer will likely
also support low-level rotation with embedded mesovorticies within
the QLCS. Several tornadoes should occur across the lower MS Valley
and Southeast in this regime, with circulations moving quickly east-northeastward.

The potential for supercells to develop ahead of the line, or
perhaps embedded within the line with southward extent, remains
unclear. Any cells that can form ahead of the line would be favored
to produce tornadoes, but the quick eastward progression of the QCLS
may limit this possibility. Still, some guidance suggests the
southern part of the line may become more broken with time Wednesday afternoon/evening. If this occurs, then a threat for embedded
supercells capable of producing multiple strong (EF2+) tornadoes
would exist. At this point, the greatest tornado potential may focus
along southern portions of the line in MS/AL where a semi-discrete
mode seems more plausible. Regardless, a continued threat for both
damaging winds and tornadoes will likely persist Wednesday evening
and overnight as convection spreads from the lower MS Valley into
the TN Valley and Deep South. Thunderstorms should eventually weaken
with eastward extent early Thursday morning as they outpace the
low-level moisture return and encounter a less favorable
thermodynamic environment.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley...
Less low-level moisture and weaker instability are forecast across
the mid MS Valley and OH Valley compared to locations farther south.
However, enough boundary-layer instability should be present for the
line of storms to produce scattered to perhaps numerous damaging
winds as it moves eastward given the strength of the low-level flow.
A few tornadoes may also occur with favorable low-level shear also
present. The lack of stronger instability precludes greater severe probabilities across this region at this time.

..Gleason.. 03/29/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 300547
SWODY2
SPC AC 300545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across Georgia and the
central/eastern Florida Panhandle as well as over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the central and eastern
CONUS early Thursday. A belt of strong mid-level flow will extend
throughout the eastern periphery of the trough, stretching from TX
into the Northeast States. Several shortwave troughs will also be
embedded within this large upper trough. The lead shortwave is
expected to move northeastward from the upper OH Valley through the
Northeast. Another wave will follow quickly in the wake of the
first, moving from the Mid-South northeastward through the central
Appalachians and into New England.

Surface pattern early Thursday will likely feature a deep low over
the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this low
southeastward in OH and then back southwestward through middle TN
and western AL. This front is forecast to push eastward/
southeastward throughout the day, moving off the East Coast by early
Friday morning.

...Southern GA...Southern SC...FL Panhandle...Northern FL...
A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Thursday
morning from central GA southwestward into the central FL Panhandle,
well ahead of the front mentioned in the synopsis. There are some
questions regarding how organized/strong the line will be at this
point in its lifecycle, particularly given the anticipated low-level
stability. Low-level moisture advection ahead of the line should
result in a downstream airmass characterized by mid to upper 60s
dewpoints and modest buoyancy. Strong wind fields will also be in
place along and ahead of the line. These conditions should support a
continued threat for damaging wind gusts along this portion of the
line as it continues eastward across GA and the eastern FL Panhandle
into southern SC and northern FL.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Northern portion of the convective line mentioned in the subsection
above will likely move eastward through the Carolinas and VA
Thursday morning. Buoyancy ahead of this portion of the line will be
limited by less low-level moisture than areas farther south. Even
so, moisture advection ahead of the line could support enough
buoyancy for a few stronger updrafts/downdrafts within the line,
with an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts.

Farther north, some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
ahead of the lead shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis.
However, greater severe potential is anticipated along and ahead of
the cold front expected to move through during the late afternoon
and evening. Modest buoyancy is expected to develop ahead of the
front amid filtered daytime heating and cooling mid-level
temperatures. Low to mid-level flow throughout the region will
remain strong. The resulting combination of modest buoyancy and
robust vertical shear is expected to result in the development of
severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary
threats, but low-level vertical shear is strong enough to support a
tornado or two.

..Mosier.. 03/30/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 300603
SWODY2
SPC AC 300601

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
GA...SOUTHERN SC...AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

CORRECTED FOR MISPLACED MARGINAL LINE OVER FLORIDA

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across Georgia and the
central/eastern Florida Panhandle as well as over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the central and eastern
CONUS early Thursday. A belt of strong mid-level flow will extend
throughout the eastern periphery of the trough, stretching from TX
into the Northeast States. Several shortwave troughs will also be
embedded within this large upper trough. The lead shortwave is
expected to move northeastward from the upper OH Valley through the
Northeast. Another wave will follow quickly in the wake of the
first, moving from the Mid-South northeastward through the central
Appalachians and into New England.

Surface pattern early Thursday will likely feature a deep low over
the Upper Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from this low
southeastward in OH and then back southwestward through middle TN
and western AL. This front is forecast to push eastward/
southeastward throughout the day, moving off the East Coast by early
Friday morning.

...Southern GA...Southern SC...FL Panhandle...Northern FL...
A line of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Thursday
morning from central GA southwestward into the central FL Panhandle,
well ahead of the front mentioned in the synopsis. There are some
questions regarding how organized/strong the line will be at this
point in its lifecycle, particularly given the anticipated low-level
stability. Low-level moisture advection ahead of the line should
result in a downstream airmass characterized by mid to upper 60s
dewpoints and modest buoyancy. Strong wind fields will also be in
place along and ahead of the line. These conditions should support a
continued threat for damaging wind gusts along this portion of the
line as it continues eastward across GA and the eastern FL Panhandle
into southern SC and northern FL.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Northern portion of the convective line mentioned in the subsection
above will likely move eastward through the Carolinas and VA
Thursday morning. Buoyancy ahead of this portion of the line will be
limited by less low-level moisture than areas farther south. Even
so, moisture advection ahead of the line could support enough
buoyancy for a few stronger updrafts/downdrafts within the line,
with an attendant threat for damaging wind gusts.

Farther north, some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
ahead of the lead shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis.
However, greater severe potential is anticipated along and ahead of
the cold front expected to move through during the late afternoon
and evening. Modest buoyancy is expected to develop ahead of the
front amid filtered daytime heating and cooling mid-level
temperatures. Low to mid-level flow throughout the region will
remain strong. The resulting combination of modest buoyancy and
robust vertical shear is expected to result in the development of
severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the primary
threats, but low-level vertical shear is strong enough to support a
tornado or two.

..Mosier.. 03/30/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 301731
SWODY2
SPC AC 301730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes
should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale upper troughing will encompass much of the central and
eastern CONUS on Thursday. Multiple shortwave troughs will rotate
through the upper trough through the day, aiding multiple rounds of
convective potential extending from parts of the Southeast to the
Mid-Atlantic. A belt of strong low/mid-level flow ahead of the upper
trough will persist over these regions. At the surface, a deep low
over the Great Lakes will develop northeastward into Canada through
Wednesday evening, with a trailing cold front sweeping eastward
across the rest of the Southeast and much of the East Coast by early
Friday morning.

...Southeast...
A broken line of storms should be ongoing at the start of the period
Thursday morning over parts of the FL Panhandle into
southern/central GA. Although the best forcing for ascent will be
shifting away from this region during the morning, both
low/mid-level flow will remain rather strong. Forecast soundings
from both the 12Z NAM and 15Z RAP across this region show sufficient
low-level moisture and strong shear to support a continued severe
threat through at least Thursday morning. Both damaging winds and a
couple of tornadoes appear possible. Some potential may exist for
storms to restrengthen Thursday afternoon into more of north FL and
coastal GA/SC as diurnal heating occurs. A lingering, isolated
severe threat may persist Thursday evening/night across parts of the
FL Peninsula ahead of the cold front.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
The northern portion of an ongoing squall line will extend across
the western Carolinas Thursday morning. Poor lapse rates and
preceding showers/cloudiness will likely temper instability with
eastward extent across SC/NC/VA. Still, flow will remain strong
though the boundary layer, and even modest diurnal heating may allow
for some strengthening of the line from central NC into southeastern
VA and the Delmarva Peninsula by Thursday afternoon. If this occurs,
then damaging winds would be possible given the strength of the
low-level flow. 0-1 km SRH would also be sufficient for a
brief/isolated tornado embedded within the line.

Farther north across the Mid-Atlantic, the severe threat should
increase along and ahead of the cold front, which is expected to
move through during the late afternoon and evening. Modest
instability should develop ahead of the front amid filtered daytime
heating and cooling mid-level temperatures. Low to mid-level flow
across this region will remain strong. The resulting combination of
modest buoyancy and robust vertical shear should result in the
development of isolated strong to severe storms. Damaging winds are
the primary threat, but low-level vertical shear is strong enough to
support a tornado or two. Some marginally severe hail may also
occur.

..Gleason.. 03/30/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 310535
SWODY2
SPC AC 310533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Panhandle into
Oklahoma and North Texas as well as across the Florida Peninsula on
Friday.

...FL...
An expansive area of high pressure is expected to be centered over
the Mid-South early Friday morning. This area of high pressure is
forecast to shift northeastward throughout day, and the dry and
stable post-frontal conditions associated with it will preclude
thunderstorm development across the majority of eastern CONUS. The
only exception is across the FL Peninsula, where isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of a weakening frontal
zone.

...TX/OK Panhandles across most of OK and north TX...
Farther west, an upper trough is forecast to extend from the
Canadian Prairie Provinces southward through the central and
southern High Plains early Friday morning. Surface pressures will
lower across the central/southern Plains ahead of this system, with
a low likely emerging out of the central High Plains and moving into
the KS/NE during the afternoon and evening. A cold front attendant
to this low will move southeastward through the central High Plains
and TX and OK Panhandles during the afternoon and evening.

Moderate low-level southerly flow is anticipated across the southern
Plains throughout the day, but low-level moisture will be slow to
return due the previous frontal intrusion. As a result, dewpoints
will likely only be in the upper 40s ahead of the front across the
TX and OK Panhandle. Even so, strong daytime heating coupled with
steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest buoyancy. This
buoyancy, in tandem with forcing for ascent along the front
(augmented by ascent attendant an approaching southern-stream
shortwave trough), is expected to result in thunderstorm development
across the central TX/OK Panhandles during the afternoon.

High storm bases and outflow-dominant structure could result in a
few strong gusts. However, low storm coverage and currently low
probability of updraft maturation merits omitting any severe
probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 03/31/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 311718
SWODY2
SPC AC 311716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Florida Peninsula and southern High Plains on Friday.

...Florida Peninsula...
A cold front should make slow progress southward over the northern
and central Florida Peninsula Friday morning before eventually
stalling. An upper trough will continue progressing over the eastern
states, with modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow persisting
over the frontal zone through the day. There is some uncertainty
regarding how much convection will be ongoing Friday morning along
and south of the front, and its potential impact on destabilization
later in the day. Regardless, modest low-level convergence along the
front and/or sea breezes may support additional thunderstorms Friday
afternoon. If robust heating can occur south of the front, then
sufficient instability would be present for surface-based storms.
Low-level flow is forecast to remain fairly weak, but deep-layer
shear appears sufficient for some storm organization. Both isolated
severe hail and occasional damaging winds may occur with any of the
stronger cores that can develop.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will advance eastward from the Four
Corners region across the southern/central High Plains on Friday. A
prior frontal passage across the southern Plains has shunted rich
low-level moisture well southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Even with
southerly low-level return flow occurring across TX ahead of the
shortwave trough, the airmass across the southern High Plains will
likely remain moisture starved. Regardless, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should develop by Friday afternoon across parts of the TX
Panhandle into western OK with robust diurnal heating. Inverted-v
forecast soundings shown on both the 12Z NAM and 15Z RAP suggest an
isolated threat for severe downdraft winds may exist with any
high-based storms that can form in this meager thermodynamic
environment.

..Gleason.. 03/31/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 010543
SWODY2
SPC AC 010542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the
Florida Peninsula on Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be
the main hazards with these storms.

...Synopsis...

A midlevel shortwave trough will pivot eastward from the Mid/Lower
MS Valley Saturday morning to the southeast U.S. coast by around
00z/Sun. As this occurs, modest height falls are expected across the
Gulf of Mexico and FL, resulting in moderately strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow overspreading the region. At the surface, a low
over the Mid-MS Valley will shift east across the Midwest to the
Mid-Atlantic. A trailing cold front will sweep east/southeast across
the southern Plains and Southeast, becoming positioned across
northern FL into the central Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. Prior
frontal intrusions across the southern U.S. will keep boundary-layer
moisture confined to near/just offshore the central Gulf Coast and
across the FL Peninsula. Strong heating of a moist airmass will
result in weak to moderate destabilization, and scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon across
the FL Peninsula, some of which may be severe.

...FL...

Mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints are forecast beneath modest
midlevel lapse rates (6.5-7.5 C/km). While low-level flow is
expected to remain fairly weak, increasing mid and upper-level winds
will result in effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt. Strong
heating to the south of a stationary boundary draped across northern
FL will aid in development of 1000-2000 J/kg and steepening
low-level lapse rates. Thunderstorms may be focused along two
separate areas during the afternoon/evening, the first being in a
zone of low-level convergence along sea breeze boundaries across
eastern portions of the Peninsula. Forecast wind profiles will
support organized cells, including supercells. Elongated hodographs
coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates suggest hail will be
possible with these storms, while steepening low-level lapse rates
support strong gusts. While a tornado or two can not be ruled out,
especially on the sea breeze boundary or via storm interactions,
modest 0-2 km flow and weak SRH/small 0-3 km hodographs suggest this
threat will remain limited.

The second focus for thunderstorm activity may be associated with a
developing MCS/bow over the Gulf of Mexico tracking east/southeast
through the day and into the evening hours. While guidance varies on
the evolution of this possible MCS, most show storms moving over the
western FL coast by late afternoon. Bowing segments associated with
this activity could pose a threat for damaging gusts into early
evening.

..Leitman.. 04/01/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 011721
SWODY2
SPC AC 011720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and
hail should be the main hazards.

...Florida...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across
the Southeast on Saturday. Due to a prior frontal passage, rich
low-level moisture will remain mostly offshore from the central Gulf
Coast. Aided by ascent from the approaching shortwave trough and
modest low-level warm advection, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will probably be ongoing at the start of the period over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico and far southern LA. The convection
over land should remain elevated and move quickly offshore by
midday. Some of these thunderstorms are expected to approach the
west-central FL Gulf Coast and move inland across the FL Peninsula
Saturday afternoon and evening. Other, generally separate convection
may develop over the central FL Peninsula, perhaps focusing
along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze.

Rich low-level moisture to the south of a front and robust diurnal
heating will aid in the development of 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
across the FL Peninsula by Wednesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear is
forecast to gradually strengthen through the day, with about 40-50
kt of effective bulk shear present by early Saturday afternoon. This
will be sufficient for supercells. Cool temperatures aloft (around
-10 to -12C at 500 mb) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates
should support a threat for isolated severe hail with any of the
more discrete thunderstorms that can form ahead of any cluster
moving in from the Gulf of Mexico. This appears more likely along
the Atlantic Coast sea breeze and vicinity.

Otherwise, latest guidance suggests that one or more organized,
bowing clusters will move from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across
parts of the northern/central FL Peninsula Saturday afternoon and
evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates south of the front due
to the daytime heating and strong deep-layer shear supporting
convective organization, these clusters should be capable of
producing scattered damaging winds as they move quickly eastward.
Low-level flow should remain fairly weak through the day, which will
limit low-level shear. Still, a brief tornado or two may occur with
locally enhanced 0-1 km shear along sea breezes or other mesoscale
boundaries. The overall severe threat will wane by late Saturday
evening once storms move off the Atlantic Coast, and as convection
weakens across the southern FL Peninsula with gradual nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary layer.

..Gleason.. 04/01/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 020537
SWODY2
SPC AC 020535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of northwest
Texas and southwest Oklahoma Sunday evening. Strong wind gusts and
large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of strong
storms also are possible across west Texas and the southern Florida
Peninsula.

...OK/TX...

Westerly low-amplitude flow across the western half of the CONUS
will amplify as a midlevel shortwave trough develops east/southeast
to the Upper MS Valley vicinity. A second midlevel trough will pivot
eastward across the southwestern states as well. A weak shortwave
impulse will eject eastward across the southern Rockies into the
southern Plains during the late afternoon/evening ahead of the
western trough. This lead impulse will provide increasing ascent
across western TX into OK by late afternoon/early evening. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to shift east/southeast across the
central Plains and into northern OK during the afternoon/evening.
This front will stall across northwest OK as a weak surface low is
forecast to develop over eastern NM/western TX. A dryline also will
exist from near the TX Panhandle/western OK border into southwest TX
around 00z.

Increasing southerly low-level flow will result in modest moisture
return to the east of the dryline/south of the cold front, with
dewpoints generally reaching into the mid 50s F to possibly near 60
F. While boundary-layer moisture will be modest, steep midlevel
lapse rates and increasing midlevel moisture will support MLCAPE as
high as 1500 J/kg. A weak capping inversion may preclude convective
initiation until after 00z when a 35-45 kt low level jet is expected
to increase and strong ascent arrives with the shortwave impulse.
Once storms develop, vertically veering wind profiles with 35+ kt
effective bulk shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs will
support supercells capable of large hail. Steep low-level lapse
rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layer air also will support
strong, locally damaging gusts.

The severe threat should diminish/become more conditional with
southward extent given weaker forcing and potentially stronger
capping. However, should convection develop southward along the
dryline across parts of west TX, sporadic strong gusts and hail
could accompany this activity for a few hours during the late
afternoon/early evening.

...South FL...

A midlevel trough will be oriented from the Mid-Atlantic vicinity to
the FL Peninsula Sunday morning. The trough will pivot east of FL by
afternoon. At the surface, a front will reside across central FL,
just north of Lake Okeechobee. South of the front, upper 60s/low 70s
dewpoints will reside beneath modest midlevel lapse rates and 500 mb temperatures near -12 C. This will support MLCAPE values around
1500-2000 J/kg by peak heating. Large-scale ascent will remain weak
over the region, but low-level convergence should be sufficient to
aid in isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Sporadic
organized cells could produce locally strong gusts and perhaps hail.

..Leitman.. 04/02/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 021730
SWODY2
SPC AC 021729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are still expected across parts of
southwest Oklahoma into western Texas tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with
these storms. A couple of strong storms are also possible across the
southern Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS through
the day tomorrow/Sunday. One upper trough will impinge on the East
Coast as a trailing surface cold front drifts across the southern
Florida Peninsula, promoting the development of isolated strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms. Meanwhile, another subtle
mid-level trough will approach the Plains states, encouraging
surface low development across the TX Panhandle by afternoon. Ahead
of the surface cyclone, modest low-level moisture beneath cooling
temperatures aloft will promote enough instability and lift to
support the development of scattered thunderstorms, some bearing
severe potential.

...Southern High Plains...
As a surface cyclone intensifies through the afternoon, low to mid
50s F surface dewpoints will advect northward ahead of a diffuse
dryline across the Texas Rolling Plains as 8 C/km 700-500 mb lapse
rates gradually overspread the southern Plains. Up to 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE may develop ahead of the diffuse dryline by afternoon peak
heating across portions of southwestern Oklahoma into western Texas.
A 40 kt westerly 500 mb wind field will overlay 20-30 kts of 925-850
mb southerly flow, with enough veering in the vertical profile to
support around 40 kts of effective bulk shear. The subtle forcing
and orthogonal orientation of the mid-level flow relative to both
the low-level wind fields and dryline suggest discrete/semi-discrete
supercell structures will be the primary mode of convection, as also
suggested by the latest high-resolution model guidance. Storms are
expected to initiate ahead of the dryline across southwest OK into
northwest TX by late afternoon/early evening. Given the steep
mid-level lapse rates atop a well-mixed boundary layer, large hail
and damaging gusts are expected to be the primary severe hazards,
with a Category 2/Slight risk in place to address the severe threat.

Farther south along the dryline across western TX, at least isolated
high-based storms are likely by late afternoon. Given 20-30 kts of
effective bulk shear, these storms are expected to be more
multicellular in nature compared to storms farther north. Damaging
gusts will be the main threat given a relatively dry boundary layer
and 8 C/km lapse rates extending from the surface to at least 700
mb. While Category 1/Marginal risk has been maintained across
western Texas, a Category 2/Slight risk may be needed in future
outlooks if greater storm coverage is anticipated.

...Southern Florida Peninsula...
Isolated multicellular storm clusters are possible ahead of a
southward sagging cold front draped across the southern FL Peninsula
tomorrow afternoon. Though shear will be weak, 70F surface dewpoints
beneath 6 C/km tropospheric lapse rates will support up to 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE. The stronger updrafts may produce a couple of damaging gusts
and perhaps an instance or two of marginally severe hail.

..Squitieri.. 04/02/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 030557
SWODY2
SPC AC 030556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN OK
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday
across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large
hail and tornadoes will all be possible.

...OK/TX/ArkLaTex...

A somewhat broad, and neutral to positive-tilt upper trough over the southwestern U.S. will develop eastward to the Ozarks/Sabine Valley
vicinity by Tuesday morning. As this occurs, increasing midlevel
southwesterly flow will overspread parts of central/eastern TX into
the Lower MS Valley. Additionally, a south/southwesterly low-level
jet will increase to around 40-50 kt during the evening and
overnight across eastern TX into the lower MS Valley. The evolution
of surface pattern appears somewhat messy and uncertain. A stalled
front will reside from northwest TX into central OK and the Mid-MS
Valley early in the period. Elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing
along this boundary Monday morning across OK and far north TX. This
activity should spread eastward or dissipate through the morning,
but steep midlevel lapse rates could allow for some marginal hail.

Southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward
through the day, with 60s surface dewpoints as far north as the Red
River/far southern OK possible by afternoon. Mid to upper 60s
dewpoints may make it as far north as I-20. Coupled with steep
midlevel lapse rates, moderate destabilization is expected despite
somewhat modest diurnal heating. An EML/capping around 850-700 mb
will likely limit thunderstorm activity for much of the day across
TX. By early evening, a weak low is forecast to develop over
northwest TX and a cold front will shift east across OK/north TX to
the ArkLaTex overnight. Initial supercells are possible in the
vicinity of the surface low and southward along the cold
front/dryline composite. While storms maintain discrete mode, large
hail and damaging gusts will be possible across north/central TX.
However, it is unclear how long discrete cells may be maintained. An
increasing low-level jet and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface
boundary suggests upscale development into a QLCS is likely.
Nevertheless, favorable low-level shear will exist and support
mesovortex formation within any line that develops. Damaging gusts
and a few tornadoes appear possible across parts of north/east TX
into the ArkLaTex during the evening/nighttime hours.

...Lower MS Valley Vicinity...

The midlevel trough will shift east toward the Ozarks late in the
period. A strong southwesterly low-level jet around 50 kt will
overspread the region after 06z, and effective bulk shear magnitudes
will increase to 40+ kt. Strong warm advection will lead to
increasing low-level destabilization/moistening as a warm front
lifts northward across LA into central MS/southwest AL late in the
period. South of the warm front, dew points in the mid 60s to near
70 F are expected. Should storms develop or move into this
environment ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS of the ArkLaTex, a
greater tornado threat could develop during the last 3-6 hours of
the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 04/03/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 031732
SWODY2
SPC AC 031730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist Monday
across central/eastern Texas, eastward into the Lower Mississippi
Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large
hail and tornadoes will all be possible.

...Central and northern Texas/southern Oklahoma east-southeastward
to Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
An upper trough is forecast to advance out of Desert
Southwest/southern Rockies into the central and southern Plains
Monday, supporting weak surface low pressure development over North
Texas. As this occurs, a cold front is forecast to advance
southward across the Panhandle and South Plains region, gradually
overtaking a dryline across the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau area.


Ongoing/elevated convection is forecast to be ongoing at the start
of the period from western North Texas/Oklahoma east-northeastward
across the Ozarks vicinity, in a zone of warm advection north of a
warm front, expected to lie across northern Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley. As this boundary gradually shifts northward
toward the Red River Valley as the low develops, heating/moistening
of the warm sector will result in moderate destabilization, though
much of the warm sector will remain capped into the afternoon.

Eventually, ascent near the dryline/front, and the low itself,
should foster surface-based storm development -- perhaps as far west
as the Concho Valley depending upon the location of the surface
frontal advance. Initial storms will likely become supercells --
aided by favorably veering flow with height, and thus potential for
all-hazards severe weather will evolve locally.

With time, storms are expected to cluster together across the
north-central Texas vicinity, with upscale growth likely during the
evening as a strong southerly low-level jet develops. As the jet increases/veers, and increasingly strong southwesterlies spread atop
the area, a well-organized -- eventually bowing -- MCS may evolve.
CAM guidance suggests this evolution, which would then shift quickly east-southeastward across northeastern Texas through the evening and
eventually parts of northern and central Louisiana overnight,
reaching southwestern Mississippi late in the period. As such,
potential for a more widespread wind event is evident, supporting an
upgrade to 30% wind probability/ENH categorical risk. Along with
the wind potential, large hail will be possible locally. Some
tornado risk is also evident -- both with QLCS-type circulations
embedded in the linear convection, as well as with any
isolated/supercell storms which may evolve in advance of the MCS.

..Goss.. 04/03/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 040550
SWODY2
SPC AC 040548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA AND SOUTHERN
SC...

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist across
portions of the southern and southeastern U.S. on Tuesday,
especially from the central Gulf Coast vicinity into
central/southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. A swath of
damaging wind gusts and several tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast over the Ozarks to Sabine
Valley Tuesday morning, and will shift east across the Mid-South to
the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow will overspread the south/southeastern U.S. ahead
of the trough, with a 50+ kt 850 mb low-level jet oriented from
southern MS into southern/central AL and GA/SC. Surface features
will be somewhat nebulous, with a lack of strong cyclogenesis.
However, low-level southerlies will maintain strong warm advection
and mid/upper 60s dewpoints will spread north across the Deep South
into GA and eastern NC. This will aid in moderate destabilization
ahead of an eastward-advancing QLCS expected to be oriented roughly
from western MS into central LA. Given abundant boundary-layer
moisture, moderate instability, and strong shear, a broad area of
severe potential will exist across much of the south/southeast U.S.
through Tuesday evening. The greatest threat will exist across the
Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) area from eastern LA/southern MS into
southern AL, central/southern GA and southern SC.

...LA/MS...

There is quite a bit of discrepancy regarding where the ongoing
storm cluster or QLCS will be located Tuesday morning. Given this
uncertainty, the western fringes of the outlook area may need
adjusted in subsequent outlooks. Nevertheless, a roughly north-south
oriented line of storms should track across southern MS and portions
of central/eastern LA during the morning. Strong wind fields and a
storm-motion vector orthogonal to the QLCS will support a
damaging-wind threat, as well as a mesovortex tornado threat. Some
guidance suggests that some airmass recovery could occur during the
afternoon in the wake of morning convection, and another round of
strong to severe thunderstorms could occur. This remains highly
uncertain, but will need to be monitored.

...AL/GA/SC...

Midlevel flow will rapidly increase during the late morning/early
afternoon as the 50+ kt low-level jet overspreads the region. The
QLCS is expected to be maintained and shift east across the region
during the afternoon into early evening. Similar to LA/MS during the
morning, enlarged low-level hodographs will support mesovortex
and/or embedded supercell tornadoes within the line, in addition to
a swatch of damaging gusts. Less certain is how much, if any,
discrete convection develops ahead of the eastward-advancing QLCS.
If discrete supercells develop, there is some potential for strong
tornadoes given strong low-level shear amid rich boundary-layer
moisture. Uncertainty regarding the development of discrete
convection will preclude sig tor probs at this time, but may be
needed in later outlooks across portions of at least AL/GA.

...Portions of Eastern Coastal FL...

Stronger large-scale ascent will remain focused to the north of the
area. Nevertheless, low 70s surface dewpoints and strong heating
will support strong destabilization through peak heating. Effective
shear magnitudes around 30-35 kt will support organized cells along
the sea breeze boundary during the afternoon. Locally strong gusts
and marginal hail will be possible with these storms. Low-level
winds will be somewhat weak, but small, favorably curved hodographs
are forecast. A tornado or two could occur with any storm located
immediately along the sea breeze boundary where low-level shear will
be maximized.

...Southeast KS/Northeast OK/Southwest MO...

An upper low over the northern Plains will pivot east to the Upper
Midwest late in the period. The associated broad trough will dig
into the central/southern Plains as this occurs. A surface cold
front is forecast across northern MO into southeast KS and
north-central OK Tuesday evening, and will quickly sweep southeast
through Wednesday morning. Some guidance suggests elevated
convection may develop near the front. If this occurs, modest
midlevel lapse rates, strong vertical shear and at least weak
instability could support marginally severe hail. Given uncertainty
in this scenario, will hold off on introducing severe probabilities
at this time.

..Leitman.. 04/04/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 041733
SWODY2
SPC AC 041731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Mon Apr 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential will exist across
portions of the southern and southeastern U.S. on Tuesday,
especially from the central Gulf Coast vicinity into
central/southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. A swath of
damaging wind gusts and several tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward
across the southeastern quarter of the country, as a second trough
-- forecast to evolve into a large, closed cyclone -- moves
east-southeastward across the north-central states.

A weak surface low, and trailing cold front, will cross the
Southeast in conjunction with the southeastern upper system, while a stronger/more expansive cold front surges southeastward across the
Plains and eventually into the Midwest/mid Mississippi Valley
through the end of the period.

...Central Gulf Coast region to the southern Atlantic Coast...
An at least loosely organized, fast-moving, bowing MCS will be
ongoing at the start of the period across parts of southern Mississippi/southern Louisiana. Severe risk -- mainly in the form
of damaging winds -- will be ongoing, along with some tornado
potential.

As the rather vigorous mid-level short-wave trough continues moving
quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
through the day, a corresponding surface low should move from
central Mississippi to eastern Tennessee. Near and ahead of the
low, and the trailing cold front, convection will continue through
the day, though widespread cloud cover and precipitation will hinder destabilization potential in many areas -- particularly with
northward extent.

Still, as a very strong wind field translates eastward across the
Southeast, shear quite supportive of well-organized/rotating storms
will permit a continuation of fairly widespread severe weather
potential. Along with likelihood for damaging winds accompanying
the organized linear convective band, tornadoes will also be
possible with QLCS-type circulations and/or embedded supercells.
Some risk for a strong tornado or two is evident -- which would be
most likely along the southern end of the convective band where
greater instability would reside, and particularly with any isolated
cells that can develop ahead of the band. Some CAM runs --
particularly the HRRR -- depict this possibility, from southern
Alabama eastward to South Carolina from late morning through the
afternoon.

Storms should remain organized all the way to the southern Atlantic
Coast, eventually shifting offshore during the evening, allowing the
threat to end into the overnight hours.

...Central Missouri/west-central Illinois...
As the northern Plains upper low moves steadily east-southeastward, strong/diffluent flow aloft will overspread the Missouri/Illinois
area. Meanwhile, heating ahead of an advancing cold front should
result in modest destabilization -- likely sufficient to support
late afternoon frontal thunderstorm development. While modest CAPE
will likely support only sub-severe hail, risk for stronger wind
gust or two -- or even a tornado -- would be possible with one or
two of the stronger storms within the frontal band. Any severe risk
should diminish during the evening, as the boundary layer diurnally
stabilizes.

..Goss.. 04/04/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 050546
SWODY2
SPC AC 050544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL...SOUTHEAST TN...WESTERN NC...NORTHERN SC AND
NORTHERN GA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts
and a few tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep
South into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

A strong mid/upper low over will meander over the Upper Midwest
while its attendant trough pivots eastward from the Plains to the MS
Valley vicinity. Another weak midlevel shortwave trough is forecast
to move across the north-central Gulf of Mexico and northern
FL/southern GA vicinity. A surface low over the Upper Midwest will
drift eastward over the upper Great Lakes while an attendant strong
cold front sweeps east across the OH/TN Valleys and central Gulf
Coast vicinity. A broad area of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
and rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place, or advance
northward, ahead of the cold front across much of the Deep South to
the southern Appalachians. This will help support a large area of
severe thunderstorm potential, mainly Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...

A moist airmass (mid-upper 60s F surface dewpoints) will persist
even in the wake of a line of severe thunderstorms expected in the
Day 1/Tuesday period. Moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly
low-level flow will also help transport moisture northward into the
southern Appalachians. Some forecast uncertainty exists due to the aforementioned midlevel shortwave impulse tracking across the
southern AL/GA/northern FL, in conjunction with a potential
west-east oriented outflow boundary left across the area from storms
in the Day 1/Tuesday period. Most guidance suggests these features
could focus convective development by afternoon across parts of the
FL Panhandle/northern FL into southern/central GA. If this occurs,
storms will develop within a moderately unstable airmass and 35+ kt
effective shear magnitudes. This would support organized severe
storms capable of damaging gusts and a few tornadoes. Given
uncertainty in convective coverage and potential impacts from Day 1
convection, will maintain Slight risk probs across the FL
Panhandle/northern FL into southern GA, though there is some
potential that higher probs may be needed in later outlooks.

Uncertainty will continue with northward extent into AL/northern GA
and the southern Appalachians. If a large area of thunderstorms
develops further south, this may impact northward moisture transport
and destabilization ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front
during the late afternoon into overnight period. Nevertheless, most
guidance still develops scattered convection along the cold front
amid weak to moderate instability and strong vertical shear. Swaths
of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will be possible with
frontal convection from parts of AL into northern GA and the
southern Appalachians.

..Leitman.. 04/05/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 051737
SWODY2
SPC AC 051736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing swaths of damaging gusts
and a few tornadoes are expected across a broad area from the Deep
South into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over parts of the
central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded deep-layer
cyclone moves slowly eastward near the upper Great Lakes region. To
the south of the primary upper trough, a low-amplitude shortwave is
forecast to move from the central Gulf Coast on Wednesday toward the
coastal Carolinas by early Thursday. A cold front initially
extending from the Midwest into east TX is forecast to move eastward
through the day, and reach portions of GA/north FL and the Carolinas
by the end of the period.

...Southeast/Southern Appalachians...
A severe thunderstorm risk remains evident across a broad portion of
the Southeast/southern Appalachians on Wednesday, though
considerable uncertainty remains due to the impact of extensive
antecedent convection and presence of multiple surface boundaries
and midlevel features across the region.

A convectively reinforced surface boundary is expected to be draped
across parts of SC/GA/AL Wednesday morning. This boundary is
forecast to move northward as an effective warm front during the
day, with scattered thunderstorms expected to redevelop across
GA/SC, and perhaps eastern AL, within this warm-advection regime.
This redevelopment may be aided by the low-amplitude midlevel
shortwave trough approaching the region from the central Gulf Coast.
Moderate instability (MLCAPE > 1000 J/kg wherever modest heating can
occur) and sufficient effective shear (generally > 40 kt) will
support organized storm structures, including the potential for
small bowing segments and supercells. The strongest storms will be
capable of damaging winds and some hail. Any sustained supercells
will also pose some tornado threat, especially near the surface
boundary where low-level shear will be maximized.

Further northwest, isolated strong thunderstorms may be ongoing
Wednesday morning near the cold front across western TN/KY into the
ArkLaMiss region. Frontal convection may weaken and become more
sparse through the morning into early afternoon, due to weakening
large-scale ascent. Renewed thunderstorm development is expected by
mid/late afternoon into early evening along (and potentially ahead
of) the front, as instability increases with diurnal heating and the large-scale upper trough begins to amplify across the region.
Weak-to-moderate instability and increasing deep-layer flow/shear
will support organized storms, with potential for scattered damaging
wind gusts and isolated hail. Uncertainty remains regarding the
strength of low-level flow along/ahead of the front, which will
impact both the coverage of the severe threat and the magnitude of
any tornado risk.

..Dean.. 04/05/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 060528
SWODY2
SPC AC 060527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC
AND SOUTHEAST VA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia, as well as
across portions of the Florida Peninsula. Damaging gusts and hail
will be the main hazard with these storms.

...Synopsis...

An deep upper low and attendant trough will shift east across the
central and eastern U.S. on Thursday. Ahead of this system, a swatch
of 40-50 kt 700 mb southwesterly flow will overspread much of the FL
Peninsula into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak low will
exist across the NC/VA Piedmont Thursday morning. A cold front will
extend southward from the low into central GA and the central Gulf
of Mexico. Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of
the front and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
from the FL Peninsula into eastern NC/southeast VA vicinity.

...NC/VA...

Strong storms may be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of
central NC int he vicinity of the surface low and cold front.
Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this initial activity.
Heating ahead of the front and surface dewpoints in the mid/upper
60s amid modest midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization, and widely scattered storms should develop by late morning/early afternoon. Deep-layer flow will largely remain
parallel to the surface front, with small low-level hodograph
evident in forecast soundings. However, strong deep-layer
southwesterly flow, increasing with height will result in effective
shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt, and organized cells are expected.
Strong instability and steep midlevel lapse rates (6.5-7.0 C/km)
will overlap with modestly elongated hodographs above about 1 km and
isolated large hail is possible in addition to damaging gusts.

A surface warm front will lift northward across far southeast VA and
then offshore into the Atlantic. To the north of this boundary,
strong storms are still possible, but will likely remain elevated.
Still, marginally severe hail will be possible with this activity.

...FL Peninsula...

A cold front will move into northern FL by early afternoon and
advance southeast across the Peninsula through the forecast period.
Mid 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will be present ahead of the front
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will result in strong
destabilization amid 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Deep layer
flow will remain parallel to the boundary, limiting low-level
convergence, but degree of destabilization should allow for widely
scattered thunderstorms. Damaging gusts and hail will be possible
with this activity. Large-scale ascent will decrease with time and
southward extent and the severe threat should decrease during the
evening and toward the southern FL Peninsula.

..Leitman.. 04/06/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 061715
SWODY2
SPC AC 061714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NC
AND SOUTHEAST VA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia, as well as across
portions of the Florida Peninsula. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS
is forecast to shift slowly eastward on Thursday, as an associated
deep-layer cyclone meanders near the Great Lakes region. A cold
front will sweep eastward across parts of the Mid Atlantic and
Southeast through the day, and advance through most of the FL
Peninsula by Friday morning.

...Eastern NC into the Tidewater Region of VA...
Rich low-level moisture will spread into portions of eastern NC and
southeast VA during the day on Thursday, in conjunction with a
northward-moving warm front and a frontal wave that is expected to
move eastward from western NC/VA toward the Tidewater vicinity by
early evening. While the stronger large-scale ascent will likely be
displaced north and west of the region during the day, the
environment along/ahead of the cold front is forecast to become
moderately unstable (MLCAPE > 1000 J/kg) and weakly capped by late morning/early afternoon, and a gradual increase in thunderstorm
coverage and intensity is possible by mid/late afternoon.

With rather strong midlevel southwesterly flow in place ahead of the
upper trough, effective shear of 40+ kt is expected across the warm
sector, which will support the potential for a few supercells and/or
organized clusters. Hail and locally damaging wind gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms. A couple of tornadoes will also
be possible, especially near the warm front and surface wave where
low-level shear may be somewhat enhanced.

...FL Peninsula...
Convection may be ongoing Thursday morning along a pre-frontal
trough extending across the northern FL Peninsula. Additional
thunderstorm development will be possible ahead of this activity by
late morning/early afternoon, as moderate to locally strong buoyancy
develops within a very warm and moist environment. Depending on the
influence of the morning pre-frontal convection, redevelopment is
also possible along the primary cold front during the afternoon.

Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of
40+ kt, supporting the potential for a few organized clusters and/or supercells. Large hail and locally strong/damaging wind gusts are
expected to be the primary hazard, though low-level shear may be
sufficient to support the threat for a tornado or two as well.

..Dean.. 04/06/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 070449
SWODY2
SPC AC 070448

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

The large-scale upper trough/low encompassing much of the
central/eastern U.S. will pivot eastward toward Appalachians on
Friday. At the surface, a cold front will sweep eastward across the
Midwest. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse
rates, resulting in very modest instability from parts of the Ohio
Valley to the central Appalachians. Low-topped convective showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this regime, though
severe potential appear low given a dearth of boundary-layer
moisture and the weak shear/instability parameter space. Otherwise,
mainly dry and stable conditions will prevail across the remainder
of the CONUS.

..Leitman.. 04/07/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 071701
SWODY2
SPC AC 071700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough covering much of the central/eastern CONUS on
Friday morning is expected to gradually shift eastward during the
day. The primary cold front will have moved into the western
Atlantic by the start of the period, with generally cool and dry
conditions in its wake. Showers with isolated thunderstorms may be
ongoing Friday morning near the northern New England coast, but this
activity should quickly move offshore by mid/late morning. A
secondary cold front will move across portions of the OH Valley
during the afternoon. Cold air aloft (-12C to -16C at 700 mb) will
support scattered convective showers along/ahead of the front, with
the strongest showers perhaps capable of producing occasional
lightning flashes despite minimal buoyancy.

Further west, a mid/upper-level trough will move across the Pacific
Northwest during the day and eventually into the northern Rockies by
Saturday morning. Convection capable of producing isolated lightning
flashes will be possible across parts of western WA/northwest OR in
the wake of the attendant cold front. A few isolated flashes will
also be possible across parts of the interior Northwest during the
late afternoon/evening as the mid/upper-level trough moves inland.

..Dean.. 04/07/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 080501
SWODY2
SPC AC 080500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Fri Apr 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will be present over much of the eastern
CONUS on Saturday. This feature and multiple embedded shortwave
troughs are expected to move generally east-northeastward across the
East Coast and adjacent western Atlantic through the period. A
prior surface cold front passage will shunt appreciable low-level
moisture offshore.

Instability is forecast to remain quite modest ahead of a weak
surface low that should develop from NY across New England and into
Canada. Still, very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30C at 500
mb) may aid in sufficient instability to support isolated lightning
flashes with any thunderstorms that can form over NY during the day
and then spread into parts of New England. Other sporadic lightning
flashes may be noted over WV and vicinity.

Farther west, another upper trough will dig over the Pacific
Northwest and northern/central Rockies through Saturday evening.
Even though low-level moisture will remain scant over WY/CO, enough
mid-level cooling may occur ahead of the approaching upper trough to
support weak instability. High-based convection that initially forms
over the higher terrain may be capable of producing occasional
lightning flashes as it spreads eastward across the adjacent High
Plains through Saturday evening.

..Gleason.. 04/08/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 081653
SWODY2
SPC AC 081651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Fri Apr 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to be in place over the eastern
CONUS early Saturday, with shortwave ridging over the Plains and a
shortwave trough over southern Alberta/Montana. The eastern CONUS
upper trough is expected to dampen while gradually progressing
eastward, eventually ending the period extending from Quebec
southeastward to off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Scattered showers are
expected as this trough moves eastward, with cold mid-level
temperatures contributing to the potential for a few isolated
lightning flashes. Lightning is most probable across the Northeast
as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the region and over
the Upper OH Valley where the coldest mid-level temperatures are
expected.

The upstream ridging in the wake of the upper trough will also shift
eastward to the MS Valley while the another shortwave trough drops
through the northern Great Basin and northern/central High Plains.
Low-level moisture will be limited ahead of this trough, but cold
mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse could
still support modest buoyancy. A few lightning flashes are possible
with the showers that develop ahead of the approaching shortwave.

Lastly, a few lightning flashes are possible across the Pacific
Northwest, both during the afternoon and overnight as a series of
shortwave troughs (and accompanying strong mid-level flow) rotate
through the region.

..Mosier.. 04/08/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 090503
SWODY2
SPC AC 090502

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Sunday
evening/night from parts of northeastern Oklahoma into Missouri.
Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough/low will remain centered over western
Canada and the northwestern CONUS on Sunday. An embedded shortwave
trough is forecast to move northeastward across the northern Plains
through the day, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest Sunday night.
At the surface, a low initially centered over KS should develop
slowly northeastward across MO through Sunday evening, while a
dryline extending southward from this low sharpens over parts of the central/southern Plains. A cold front should eventually impinge on
modest low-level moisture returning northward across the southern
Plains/Ozarks Sunday night.

...Southern Plains into Missouri...
A pronounced EML emanating from the Southwest will be present over
much of the southern/central Plains on Sunday, and a low/mid-level
temperature inversion will likely inhibit convection across the
developing warm sector through the day. The presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and gradually increasing low-level moisture
east of the dryline will act in conjunction with diurnal heating to
support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by early Sunday evening from
parts of north-central/northeastern OK into MO.

Most guidance suggests that isolated thunderstorms will initiate
across this region along/ahead of the cold front Sunday
evening/night, as glancing ascent from the shortwave trough over the
northern Plains and a gradually strengthening low-level jet help
overcome lingering convective inhibition. Some of these
thunderstorms may remain slightly elevated based on NAM forecast
soundings. Regardless, the steep lapse rates aloft coupled with
30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear should foster organized updrafts, with
a supercell or two possible before storms quickly grow upscale into
one or more small bowing clusters. Isolated large hail may occur
with the initially discrete thunderstorms. Damaging winds also
appear possible if any of the clusters can remain surface-based
Sunday night.

Given the limited low-level moisture forecast and late timing of
convective development, have maintained low severe probabilities for
mainly hail/wind across parts of northeastern OK into MO where
convection appears most likely to develop. Farther south across the
southern Plains along the length of the dryline, convective
initiation appears much more uncertain/conditional owing to a lack
of ascent aloft and stronger cap.

..Gleason.. 04/09/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 091731
SWODY2
SPC AC 091730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Sunday
evening/night from parts of northeastern Oklahoma into Missouri.
Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the western and central
CONUS early Sunday, with shortwave ridging across the MS Valley
upstream of another upper trough extending from Quebec off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast. Shortwave trough embedded within the western
upper trough is expected to progress eastward/northeastward through
the northern Plains and into the Upper MS Valley. An associated
surface low will begin the period over KS before quickly moving
northeastward ahead of its parent shortwave as an attendant cold
front sweeps southeastward through the central Plains and mid/lower
MO Valley. This cold front will interact with low-level moisture
returning northward to support thunderstorm development from the
central Plains eastward into the Mid MS Valley.

...Southeast KS across the Ozark Plateau into Mid MS Valley...
Warm temperatures aloft are expected to suppress deep convection
throughout most of the day. However, strong heating coupled with
persistent low-level moisture advection and modest ascent ahead the
front should erode this capping just as the front moves through.
Guidance suggests dewpoints will be into the upper 50s ahead of the
front during the late afternoon across far southeast KS into central
and southern MO. This low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support moderate buoyancy. As such, the current
expectation is for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop quickly
along the front as it moves into the region during the late
afternoon/early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
mid-level flow will support hail with initial updrafts. The
relatively dry mid-level suggests a largely outflow-dominant storm
structure and a transient to a more linear mode will likely occur
quickly. The main severe potential is expected with the development
along the front, but some risk will linger across these areas after
the initial frontal passage if elevated storms develop amid the
continued warm-air advection.

...Central/Eastern OK...
A much more conditional severe risk exists across central and
eastern OK (as opposed to areas north and northeast) along the
dryline. Dewpoints will likely reach the upper 50s amid temperatures
in the low 80s, but these thermodynamic conditions will likely not
be sufficient to overcome the anticipated convective inhibition
during the afternoon. Isolated convective initiation does appear
more probable (while still remaining low) later in the evening as
the dryline retreats westward and low-level moisture continues to
increase. Large hail and/or damaging wind gusts would be possible
with any storms that do develop along/ahead of the dryline and move
into eastern OK.

..Mosier.. 04/09/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 100547
SWODY2
SPC AC 100545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Monday into
Monday night from parts of north-central Texas to the Mid-South and
vicinity. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes all appear possible.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move northeastward from the Upper Midwest
into Canada on Monday, with upper ridging expected to build over
much of the northern/central Plains in its wake. Farther west,
another upper trough should move east-southeastward along the West
Coast and across parts of the Great Basin through the period. A weak
surface low initially over southern OK/north-central TX should fill
as it develops northeastward towards the mid MS Valley through the
day. A cold front should extend from parts of the Midwest
southwestward to OK, and a dryline is forecast to sharpen across
central TX to the south of the front through Monday evening.

...Southern Plains to the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys...
Generally elevated thunderstorms along/north of the cold front may
be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning over parts of
MO. This activity may pose an isolated hail/wind threat as it
spreads eastward across the mid MS Valley, but instability should
remain rather weak ahead of it. To the south of the cold front and
east of the dryline, increasing low-level moisture, with low to mid
60s surface dewpoints, should advance northward through the day.
Diurnal heating of this moist low-level airmass and the presence of
steep mid-level lapse rates over much of the warm sector will likely
foster the development of 1000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by peak afternoon
heating. Where more robust heating can occur, locally stronger
instability (upwards of 2500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) may be realized.
This greater instability appears probable over parts of
north-central into northeast TX and perhaps southern/central AR.

A belt of stronger mid-level west-southwesterly flow should be
present over northern portions of the surface warm sector, namely
eastern OK into AR and the Mid-South. Weaker flow aloft is forecast
with southward extent into TX/LA/MS. Regardless, effective bulk
shear should range from 35-50 kt, stronger in the vicinity of the
cold front. The forecast combination of moderate to locally strong
instability and enhanced deep-layer shear will likely prove
favorable for convective organization. Supercells should occur with
any convection that can form south of the front, while clusters and
a more linear mode appear probable along the front itself as it
moves slowly east-southeastward through the day, before stalling
Monday night.

Large to very large hail will be a threat with any discrete
supercells that develop late Monday afternoon or evening given the
steep mid-level lapse rates and large reservoir of buoyancy
available. A more focused area of damaging wind potential may exist
along/ahead of the front across AR into the Mid-South. A few
tornadoes also appear possible, particularly Monday evening/night as
a southerly low-level jet slowly strengthens over AR and the lower
MS Valley. The primary uncertainty remains overall coverage of
thunderstorms, as large-scale forcing aloft is expected to remain
nebulous at best. Convective initiation along/east of the dryline in southeastern OK and north-central/northeast TX appears fairly
conditional at this time. But, if a thunderstorm or two can form in
this region, they would likely pose a threat for very large hail.

..Gleason.. 04/10/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Monday into
Monday night from parts of north-central Texas to the Mid-South and
vicinity. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes all appear possible.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic flow will be in place across the western and
central CONUS early Monday. A lead shortwave trough embedded within
this flow is expected to move from the Upper Midwest into Quebec
while another drops through the Pacific Northwest. Heights will
increase across the Plains in between these two shortwaves with the
stronger westerlies shifting northward.

At the surface, the primary low attendant to the lead shortwave will
move into Quebec while the northern portion of an associated front
remains progressive as it moves eastward/northeastward across the
Upper Great Lakes region and OH Valley. Farther south, the front
will become less progressive and more stationary across AR.

...Mid-South across the Arklatex into northeast TX...
Large-scale forcing for ascent will be negligible across the region
throughout the day, with the area potentially under the influence of
modest height rises. As such, the overall severe risk across the
region will depend largely on the any surface boundaries that can
act to influence convective initiation.

The cold front will likely remain north of eastern OK and much of
AR, but an outflow boundary from preceding overnight storms could be
in place across the region. Strong moisture advection throughout the
day will likely result in at least mid 60s dewpoints in the vicinity
of this boundary by the late afternoon. Warm mid-level temperatures
will be in place, but daytime heating coupled with the increasing
low-level moisture and mesoscale ascent along the boundary will
likely result in convective initiation. There are still questions
regarding the most probable location for initiation as well as the
overall storm coverage, but environmental conditions support
supercells with any robust/mature updrafts. All severe hazards are
possible with these supercells, including tornadoes.

Farther west (across north-central/northeast TX), a sharpening
dryline and weak surface low may provide the ascent needed for
convective initiation. However, like areas farther northeast, warm
mid-level temperatures (and resultant capping) coupled with
negligible large-scale ascent introduce uncertainty regarding
initiation and coverage. Primary threat with any storms that do
develop in the afternoon/late afternoon would be very large hail.
Veered low-level flow suggests the tornado potential should be low.
However, surface winds are expected to back after 00Z, contributing
to some tornado potential with any storms that are able to persist
and/or mature during that time frame.

...Mid MS/Lower OH Valley...
Generally elevated thunderstorms along/north of the cold front may
be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning over parts of
MO. This activity may pose an isolated hail/wind threat as it
spreads eastward across the mid MS Valley and into the Lower OH
Valley throughout the day, but instability should remain rather weak
ahead of it.

..Mosier.. 04/10/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 110602
SWODY2
SPC AC 110600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night across a broad
portion of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough over the western CONUS will advance east-northeastward on Tuesday, reaching the northern/central High
Plains by late Tuesday night. A low-amplitude, southern-stream
shortwave trough initially over northeast Mexico and the lower Rio
Grande Valley will move northeastward across the TX Coastal Plain
through Tuesday afternoon, and it should eventually reach the lower
MS Valley Tuesday night.

A deep surface low centered over northeastern CO and the western NE
Panhandle Tuesday morning is forecast to develop generally eastward
across NE through the day. This low should then further develop east-northeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday night.
A dryline extending southward from this low across much of the
central/southern Plains will sharpen through late Tuesday afternoon.
A cold front attendant to the low is expected to sweep
east-southeastward over much of the northern/central Plains and
parts of the mid MO Valley Tuesday evening/night. A strong cap
associated with an EML is expected to inhibit convective initiation
along the dryline through much of the day.

...Southern/Central Plains Tuesday Afternoon/Evening...
As the upper trough approaches and the surface low develops
eastward, a pronounced low-level mass response will usher rapid
low-level moisture return northward across the southern/central
Plains and lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. Most guidance indicates
that at least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints will be in place to
the east of the dryline across these region by late Tuesday
afternoon. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass along with the
presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the EML
will likely foster moderate to strong instability along/east of the
dryline extending from parts of central TX to east-central KS.
MLCAPE of 2500-4000+ J/kg appears probable by peak afternoon
heating. Mid-level southwesterly winds are expected to gradually
increase during the day, and around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear
should be present along much of the dryline by late Tuesday
afternoon. This should be sufficient for organized storms, including supercells.

The primary uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will initiate
along the length of the dryline late Tuesday afternoon into the
early evening, as mid-level height falls/ascent preceding the upper
trough will remain fairly modest. Lingering convective inhibition
may also hinder coverage to some extent. Even with these
uncertainties, it appears probable that isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will form along the dryline from parts of central TX
northward into central/eastern KS. Any thunderstorms that can
develop in this very favorable thermodynamic environment will likely
become severe quickly. Given the large reservoir of buoyancy
available, supercells will pose a threat for very large hail (2+
inches), along with damaging winds as they develop eastward through
the evening. A southerly low-level jet will rapidly strengthen
Tuesday evening across this region, and a corresponding increase in
low-level shear is anticipated. Any supercells that persist will be
capable of producing tornadoes. With the strength of the low-level
shear that is forecast, a strong tornado appears possible.

...Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley Tuesday
Evening/Night...
Low-level moisture will return northward ahead of the surface low
and east of the dryline across eastern KS into far eastern NE and
much of IA/MO by Tuesday evening. Surface dewpoints may only reach
into the upper 50s to low 60s with northward extent into IA. Even
with this slightly more limited moisture, stronger ascent/low-level
convergence ahead of the surface low will likely aid thunderstorm
development by Tuesday evening. Confidence is greater in convection
forming over parts of eastern NE into IA in this time frame.

A south-southwesterly low-level jet will rapidly strengthen to
50-60+ kt around 00-03Z. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear
very supportive of supercells. Any thunderstorms that can remain
discrete will pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes.
Effective SRH potentially exceeding 400 m2/s2 across IA Tuesday
evening and the strength of the low-level jet suggest a threat for a
couple of strong tornadoes. Have expanded the Enhanced Risk
northward into more of IA to account for this strong tornado
potential. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed across this
area if confidence increases that multiple supercells will develop.
Otherwise, a line of forced convection should develop along the cold
front Tuesday night and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds and
tornadoes as it moves southeastward across eastern KS and MO into
early Wednesday morning. Isolated large hail may also occur north of
the warm front across parts of the Upper Midwest.

...Texas Coastal Plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday Afternoon/Evening...
As the southern-stream shortwave trough moves over the TX Coastal
Plain Tuesday, thunderstorms should develop across parts of the
upper TX Coast/east TX into LA. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level
airmass will contribute to the development of MLCAPE generally
ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg Tuesday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level
southwesterly winds around 40-50 kt will likely support updraft
organization, and a mix of multicells and supercells may develop.
These thunderstorms will pose a threat for large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes as they spread east-northeastward
Tuesday afternoon/evening.

...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid-South Tuesday Night...
Depending on the evolution of thunderstorms across the southern
Plains, an isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday night over
parts of the ArkLaTex, Ozarks, and perhaps the Mid-South. A 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to overspread these
regions in this time frame, and rich low-level moisture should
support enough instability to maintain surface-based thunderstorms.
Any convection that can persist or form in this regime would pose a
threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail, as low-level
and deep-layer shear appear more than sufficient for supercells.

..Gleason.. 04/11/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 111717
SWODY2
SPC AC 111716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night across a broad
portion of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough, currently moving onshore across the Pacific
Northwest, is forecast to deepen over the next 24 hours as it shifts
into the inter-mountain West. A southern stream perturbation is
depicted in latest guidance transversing the southern Plains into
the Texarkana region by early evening. At the surface, a
consolidating cyclone in the High Plains will deepen as it shifts
into the northern Plains. A stationary boundary across the southern
CONUS will rapidly mix northward in response to the deepening low,
establishing a broad warm sector from the northwest Gulf Coast into
the central Plains and parts of the Midwest by late afternoon. A
sharpening dryline along draped south through the Plains will be
overtaken by a cold front through the evening and overnight hours.

...Central Plains...
Thunderstorm initiation appears likely across the NE/SD/IA tri-state
region by mid to late afternoon in the vicinity of the triple point
and along the dryline. Although boundary-layer moisture should be
modest compared to locations further south, steep lapse rates aloft
will support adequate buoyancy for mature convection. Forecast
soundings across the region show elongated hodographs with ample
veering in the lowest 3 km. This kinematic environment will support
supercells given storm motion vectors off the initiating boundary.
All hazards are possible, including the potential for strong
tornadoes given forecast ESRH values between 250-300 m2/s2. A
transition to primarily linear storm mode (with an increasing wind
threat) is expected by the evening hours as the cold front overtakes
the dryline across southeast NE and northwest KS. Strong low-level
shear ahead of the line will maintain the potential for embedded
circulations at shifts into southern IA/northwest MO overnight.

...Eastern KS into Central OK...
The severe weather threat appears conditional for tomorrow afternoon
across eastern KS into central/eastern OK. Latest solutions struggle
to show a strong convective signal along the dryline, which is
likely due to a combination of factors. The strongest synoptic
forcing for ascent will be displaced well to the north across the
central to northern Plains, and weak subsidence behind a southern
stream upper trough may be overspreading the region by peak heating.
Despite this, some solutions hint that given sufficient daytime
heating behind the wave, convergence along the dryline may be
adequate for a few isolated cells within a minimally capped
environment. The thermodynamic/kinematic environment across
OK/southern KS will be supportive of supercells if convection can
develop. While this potential is noted, uncertainty is too high to
warrant 10% tornado probabilities at this time.

...North/Central TX to AR/LA...
The southern shortwave trough is expected to move over central TX
and into western LA during the afternoon hours. This broad scale
ascent will bolster antecedent lift from low-level warm/moist
advection over east TX into western AR/LA. Limited inhibition in
place should result is quasi-discrete cells to storm clusters across
the region. A few of these may be sufficiently organized to support
a wind/hail risk, and a low-level helicity within the warm advection
regime will support at least a low-end tornado risk. The severe
potential should be regionally maximized across central TX where
storms developing along the dryline behind the leading wave will
likely be more isolated and have a higher probability of maintaining
discrete modes.

..Moore/Mosier.. 04/11/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 120602
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a large portion
of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
and Southeast on Wednesday. Damaging winds, some of which could be
significant, several tornadoes (some strong), and large to very
large hail will likely occur.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low will continue to eject from the Plains across
the MS Valley and into the Midwest and Great Lakes region on
Wednesday. The southern portion of the trough will likely acquire a
negative tilt as it moves over the mid MS Valley and Midwest through
the day. A 60-80+ kt mid-level jet will also overspread these
regions, with a broader area of enhanced mid-level winds
encompassing much of the surface warm sector. A surface low over the
Upper Midwest Wednesday morning is forecast to develop eastward over
the Upper Great Lakes through the day. An attendant cold front will
sweep east-southeastward over much of the Midwest, lower/mid MS
Valley, and Southeast through the period.

...Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Southeast...
Isolated to scattered convection will probably be ongoing Wednesday
morning along/ahead of the front across parts of the lower/mid MS
Valley. This morning activity will be aided by strong low-level warm
advection associated with a 40-50+ kt southwesterly low-level jet.
Any ongoing thunderstorms may continue to pose an isolated severe
threat given the strength of the low/mid-level flow and sufficient
instability to support surface-based thunderstorms. Additional
thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front by
late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon. The presence of at
least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints extending as far north as
IL/IN, coupled with filtered diurnal heating, will support the
development of generally 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Stronger
instability (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg) may develop across parts of the
lower MS Valley Wednesday afternoon, as steeper mid-level lapse
rates should be present over this area.

Strong effective bulk shear of 45-55+ kt will likely exist owing to
the enhanced mid-level winds associated with the ejecting upper
trough. Low-level shear will also remain enhanced over much of the
warm sector as the low-level jet translates slowly eastward through
the period. Organized severe thunderstorms are expected given the
strong low-level and deep-layer shear. Convection will likely
organize into a bowing line along or just ahead of the cold front.
Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds appear likely as this
line develops and subsequently matures over parts of the lower/mid
MS Valley into the lower OH Valley. Significant gusts of 75+ mph
appear possible. Pre-frontal supercells may also occur over this
region, and several tornadoes appear likely with either the leading
supercells or with embedded QLCS circulations. Large hail will also
be a threat with any thunderstorms that can remain at least somewhat
discrete, and isolated very large (2+ inch) hail appears possible
centered over the lower MS Valley and vicinity where steeper
mid-level lapse rates should reside. At least an isolated severe
threat should persist with eastward extent into the OH/TN Valleys
and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/night. However,
low-level moisture and instability will be more limited across these
areas.

...New York/Pennsylvania...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Wednesday
afternoon as a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves over NY/PA.
Although low-level moisture will remain fairly limited, sufficient
deep-layer shear should exist for modest updraft organization. A few
instances of hail and strong to damaging winds may occur as
thunderstorms spread eastward through the early evening.

..Gleason.. 04/12/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 121730
SWODY2
SPC AC 121729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER TO MID MS
RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a large portion
of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, and lower Ohio
Valley on Wednesday. Damaging winds, some of which could be
significant, several tornadoes (some strong), and large to very
large hail will likely occur.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level wave, currently shifting into the northern Plains,
will largely meander over the northern CONUS for the next 24-48
hours. At the surface, a strong cold front associated with the
attendant surface low will continue to surge to the east/southeast
across the MS river valley through the day. The low to mid-level
cold surge behind the front will help pivot the upper-level trough
axis into the Great Lakes by late Wednesday. This will favor broad
height falls across the northern MS valley into the Great Lakes.
This broad scale ascent, combined with continued pole-ward advection
of higher theta-e air ahead of the front, will help destabilize a
broad region from the lower MS valley into the Great Lakes.
Strengthening flow along/ahead of the front will support widespread
organized convection.

...Mid-MS/lower OH river valleys...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front by the
mid morning hours across parts of southern MO/northern AR. Mean
storm motions along the front will favor a quick transition from
quasi-discrete cells to more linear storm modes. Convection will
continue to grow upscale as it approaches the mid-MS river valley
amid increasing low-level moisture and daytime heating. Increasing
low-level flow (up to 50-60 knots between 925-850 mb) will likely
support bowing segments and the potential for widespread damaging
winds. The potential for multiple 65+ knot wind reports and/or
significant wind damage support an upgrade to a wind-driven Moderate
risk for portions of the mid-MS/lower-OH river valleys. Elongated
0-3 km hodographs ahead of the line will also support embedded
circulations. The warm advection regime and broad scale ascent ahead
of the line may support a few more discrete cells across the lower
OH river valley by mid to late afternoon. This potential may be
conditional on the degree of destabilization that can occur behind early-morning rain/weak thunderstorms that should exit the region by
early afternoon. However, if discrete convection can become
established, all hazards will be possible, including the potential
for large hail and strong tornadoes.

...Lower MS river valley...
The surface cold front will likely lag to the west across the
Texarkana/lower MS valley regions, but this will allow for several
hours of daytime heating between cloud breaks and continued
boundary-layer moistening amid low-level theta-e advection. With 7-8
C/km mid-level lapse rates atop a deep, moist boundary layer will
likely support upwards of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon.
Glancing upper-level ascent from the synoptic wave to the north
combined with isentropic ascent and lift along any confluence axes
and/or lingering outflow boundaries from overnight convection,
should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorms by mid
to late afternoon. Adequate deep-layer shear and strong flow in the
0-3 km layer will be favorable for supercells with all severe
hazards possible. Some solutions hint at forecast ESRH values
between 300-400 m2/s2, which will support the potential for strong
tornadoes. The signal for isolated convection is notable in recent
CAM solutions and in ensemble guidance, warranting an upgrade to a
Moderate risk where the tornado potential is highest.

...New York and Pennsylvania...
A weak upper-level disturbance, currently moving over central TX, is
forecast to move into the Northeast by peak daytime heating
Wednesday. A weak surface low attendant to this wave will favor a
return to onshore flow with increasing boundary-layer moisture
through the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible by
late afternoon as the wave moves across the region, and deep-layer
shear should be sufficient to support a few strong to severe
thunderstorms with an attendant risk for hail, wind, and possibly a
brief tornado.

..Moore/Mosier.. 04/12/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 130557
SWODY2
SPC AC 130556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for strong/damaging thunderstorm winds may exist
across parts of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and New England
on Thursday. Marginally severe hail also appears possible.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper cyclone centered over the Upper Midwest Thursday
morning is forecast to move slowly northeastward into Canada while
occluding. Strong mid-level southwesterly winds preceding this
cyclone will overspread much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
through the day, with somewhat weaker winds aloft with southward
extent across the Southeast. A cold front will sweep eastward over
much of the East Coast states by Thursday evening, while making
slower southeastward progress across the Carolinas and GA/AL.

...Southeast into the Carolinas...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may be in progress across
southern portions of LA/MS/AL at the start of the period Thursday
morning along/ahead of the cold front. This activity should weaken
through the morning hours, but additional convection may form
Thursday afternoon ahead of the front over parts of the FL Panhandle
into GA and the Carolinas as diurnal heating of the moist low-level
airmass occurs. Lapse rates aloft are not forecast to be
particularly steep, but around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE should still
develop. Deep-layer shear looks to be fairly marginal around 25-35
kt. Some organization may occur with any thunderstorms that develop,
and isolated strong to damaging winds and marginally severe hail
both appear possible. Convection should spread eastward across these
areas through the afternoon, with some guidance suggesting a
lingering severe threat may persist over the eastern Carolinas
Thursday evening/night before the cold front moves offshore.

...Mid-Atlantic into New England...
40-50+ kt of mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of
the Mid-Atlantic into New England on Thursday. While low-level
moisture should remain limited across these regions, surface
dewpoints mainly in the mid 50s to low 60s should be present ahead
of the cold front. Diurnal heating of this airmass should foster
around 250-750 J/kg of MLCAPE, with poor mid-level lapse rates
likely inhibiting greater instability. Deep-layer shear should
increase to around 35-40 kt as the stronger mid-level winds
overspread the warm sector, which should prove favorable for updraft organization. But, low-level convergence along the front will remain
weak, as winds around 850 mb are forecast to veer to a general
westerly component by early Thursday afternoon. This weak
convergence may tend to limit overall thunderstorm coverage to some
extent, with most guidance suggesting better chances for convection
across eastern PA into southern NY and parts of New England. Still,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to gradually
develop along the front by Thursday afternoon and move quickly
eastward. With mainly a linear/cluster mode expected, isolated
strong to damaging winds should be the primary severe threat.

..Gleason.. 04/13/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 131715
SWODY2
SPC AC 131714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for strong/damaging thunderstorm winds may exist
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and New England on Thursday, and on
southward to the Southeast. Marginally severe hail also appears
possible in some areas.

...Synopsis...
As a strong upper low over the north-central U.S. Thursday morning
shifts gradually northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and into
western Ontario, the upper flow field across the western and central
U.S. will become increasingly zonal/westerly. In the East, weak
mid-level height falls will occur, as short-wave ridging is slowly
shunted eastward across the western Atlantic by the northeastward
advance of the aforementioned low.

At the surface, a cold front -- trailing southward from the triple
point of a deeply occluded surface low near Lake Superior at the
start of the period -- will advance east of the Appalachian Crest
during the morning, and across the East Coast states during the
afternoon. By late evening the front will likely have cleared the
southern New England/Middle Atlantic coasts, lingering only across
the Southeast through the end of the period.

...Southern New England to the Southeast...
Thunderstorms -- and possibly a lingering severe risk -- will likely
be ongoing near coastal portions of the central Gulf Coast area at
the start of the period. This convection is forecast to shift
gradually offshore through midday.

Meanwhile, modest diurnal destabilization is expected ahead of the
advancing cold front -- from the southern New England to the
Southeast -- as a seasonably moist (60s dewpoints) boundary-layer
airmass undergoes daytime heating.

Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain rather weak east of the
Appalachians, with the north-central U.S. upper low shifting
northeastward into western Ontario. As such, only modest mid-level
height falls will overspread the East. Still, weak ascent focused
along the surface cold front should support development of scattered
to isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon.

With the upper low remaining well to the northwest, the strongest
flow aloft will remain well to the cool side of the surface warm
sector. However, with quasi-unidirectional west-southwesterly flow
through the lower half of the troposphere, potential for locally organized/fast-moving storms and/or storm clusters appears to exist.
The greatest potential for a few stronger cells -- capable of
producing a few strong/severe wind gusts -- appears to be most
likely over portions of southern New England and into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic region. As such, a small SLGT risk area is being added
to this area. Elsewhere, risk for wind -- and possibly marginal
hail -- appears lower, warranting maintenance of the existing MRGL
risk.

..Goss.. 04/13/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 140547
SWODY2
SPC AC 140545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday evening and
night from parts of central/eastern Oklahoma into the lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Large hail and damaging winds
should be the main threats if thunderstorms develop, but a tornado
or two also appears possible.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low is forecast to remain centered over Ontario/Quebec
on Friday. A belt of around 50-60 kt mid-level westerly winds should
extend over much of the central CONUS to the south of the upper low. Quasi-zonal flow aloft should persist over the southern Plains into
the lower MS Valley through the period. Multiple low-amplitude,
mid-level disturbances may move across these regions. Surface high
pressure will shift off the East Coast through the day, with a weak
surface low forecast to develop over the southern High Plains. A
dryline will extend southward from this low over central TX.

...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Rich low-level moisture originating from the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico will likely return northward across east TX, eastern OK, and
the lower MS Valley to the east of the dryline through early Friday
evening. The presence of somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates
and diurnal heating of this moist airmass should encourage the
development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late Friday
afternoon. The enhanced mid-level westerly flow mentioned previously
should support rather strong deep-layer shear, with 40-50+ kt of
effective bulk shear likely. This favorable thermodynamic and
kinematic environment will conditionally support organized severe thunderstorms, including the potential for supercells.

However, considerable uncertainty remains whether convection will
initiate along/east of the dryline in central/eastern OK or western
AR late Friday afternoon into the early evening and remain surface
based. Large-scale ascent aloft appears nebulous at best in this
time frame. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms may
form in this region or along the developing warm front farther east
Friday evening/night in tandem with a 25-40 kt southwesterly
low-level jet. If thunderstorms can form, they would be capable of
producing isolated large hail and damaging winds as they move
eastward towards the lower MS Valley and Mid-South Friday night. A
tornado or two also appears possible mainly Friday evening if a
supercell can form and remain surface based. At this point, there is
not enough confidence in convection occurring to include greater
severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 04/14/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 141717
SWODY2
SPC AC 141715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday evening and
night from central/eastern Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi
Valley and Mid-South. Large hail and damaging winds should be the
main threats where thunderstorms develop. A brief tornado may occur
from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas during the evening.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave riding will occur over the Rockies on Friday as an upper
low shifts east out of Ontario and the Great Lakes, and an upper
trough amplifies over the West Coast. This will result in mainly
zonal mid/upper flow across the southern Plains and Southeast, and
gradual warming aloft and weakening of midlevel winds through
Saturday morning.

At the surface, high pressure over the Southeast will move offshore
and weaken, allowing for increasing southerly winds from the Gulf of
Mexico into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley. As a result,
rapid moisture recovery is expected, with mid 60+ F dewpoints as far
north as I-40 in OK and AR by Friday evening. Meanwhile, an
east-west oriented front will push south across the central Plains
during the day, reaching from northern OK to the MO/AR border area
by 00Z. This boundary, as well as increasing lift related to a 50 kt
low-level jet, will result in at least isolated severe potential
during the evening and overnight.

...Central OK eastward toward the TN Valley...
Elevated storms rooted above 850 mb may form early Friday from
southeast KS into southern MO associated with a 50 kt low-level jet,
and are unlikely to be severe. However, any outflow may potential
reinforce the main front as is drops south across KS and MO during
the day. By late afternoon, diurnal activity appears likely from
southern MO into northeast OK, along the cold front and east of a
dryline which will be close to I-35. Steep lapse rates aloft as well
as elongated hodographs will favor cells capable of hail, and likely
moving in a southeastward direction. A couple supercells are
possible though a degree of upscale growth may occur as well.
Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible as
effective SRH may exceed 300 m2/s2. Capping will become a concern
after 00Z, and may mitigate tornado threat somewhat. While the
rapidly veering low-level jet and height rises after 00Z are
potential mitigating factors regarding severe storm coverage, models
are in good agreement with a zone of focused storm coverage across
the Slight Risk area.

Other storms dropping southeastward across western TN, northern MS
and into northwest AL overnight may produce isolated severe hail or
wind given long hodographs favoring southeastward movement.

..Jewell.. 04/14/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 150441
SWODY2
SPC AC 150440

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Thu Apr 14 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES....

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong storms may pose at least some risk for
severe wind and hail Saturday from parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Southeast. An isolated severe
storm or two is also possible across the Texas Edwards Plateau and
Hill Country vicinity.

...Synopsis...
While the mid-latitude westerlies become more progressive across the
northern tier of the U.S. during this period, models indicate that a
mid/upper high will become increasingly prominent across the lower
latitude eastern Pacific and southern Mexico. To the north of the
high, ridging is forecast to build along a broad axis as far north
as the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley by early
Saturday. This ridging appears likely to persist much of Saturday
into Saturday night, before a short wave impulse emanating from the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific rapidly progresses across the
southern Great Basin and southern Rockies.

Farther north, one significant remnant perturbation, emerging from
the deep mid-level low currently over the Upper Midwest, is forecast
to dig southeast of the Great Lakes region during the day Saturday,
before turning eastward toward the northern Atlantic Seaboard. It
appears that this will occur as an upstream impulse accelerates
inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the northern
Rockies by 12Z Sunday.

The lead impulse may be accompanied by modest surface cyclogenesis
near the New England coast by Saturday evening, with a trailing cold
front forecast to advance across the northern and middle Atlantic
coast by late Saturday night. As it does, models suggest that it
will merge with a stalled preceding cold front, across the southern
Atlantic coast into Tennessee Valley, Ozark Plateau and southern
Great Plains. Seasonably moist and potentially unstable
boundary-layer air will generally remain confined to areas preceding
the lead surface front, across the Gulf Coast states. Scattered
thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Saturday, near/northwest
of the Ark-La-Tex through northern portions of the eastern Gulf
states, trailing a low amplitude perturbation which may be migrating east-northeast of the southern Appalachians, within larger-scale
cyclonic flow to the south of the main mid-level troughing over the
Great Lakes.

...Ark-La-Tex into Southeast...
In the wake of the low amplitude wave forecast to cross the southern Appalachians through southern Mid Atlantic coast early Saturday,
mid/upper support for thunderstorm development through much of
Saturday and Saturday night is unclear. To the east-northeast of
the lower latitude ridging, modest, broadly difluent mid/upper flow
appears likely to prevail, perhaps with one or more digging
convectively enhanced or generated perturbations. Models do
indicate that moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000
J/kg may develop within the pre-frontal environment with daytime
heating. Coupled with modest shear beneath 30+ kt flow around the
500 mb level, it appears that conditions may become supportive of a
mix of scattered discrete storms and organizing clusters which may
become capable of producing at least marginally severe wind and
hail. Lower-level wind fields are forecast to remain rather weak,
and, coupled with the uncertain mid/upper support, this may be the
primary limiting factor concerning severe weather probabilities for
this period.

...Edwards Plateau/Hill Country into northeast Texas...
Likely due to weak, or at least uncertain, mid/upper forcing for
convective development, there is little signal in the various model
output for an appreciable risk of thunderstorms during this period.
However, the environment along the cold front and dryline appears
likely to become at least conditionally supportive of supercell
development late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. And the
initiation of isolated storms, in response to locally enhanced
convergence and daytime heating weakening inhibition, appears at
least possible.

..Kerr.. 04/15/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 151720
SWODY2
SPC AC 151719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong storms may pose a risk for severe wind and
hail Saturday from parts of the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi
Valley into parts of the Southeast. An isolated severe storm or two
is also possible across the Texas Edwards Plateau and Hill Country
vicinity.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move from the Great Lakes into the
Northeast on Saturday, with an intense midlevel speed max moving
across northern IL/IN/OH and nosing into PA by 00Z. Temporary
ridging will occur over the Plains in the wake of this system, with
moderate zonal flow across the southern half of the CONUS.

At the surface, a cold front will push eastward across the
Northeast, with southern portions of this front trailing westward
across the Gulf Coast states and into central TX by afternoon.
Substantial low-level moisture will be in place from TX into LA and
MS with upper 60s F dewpoints common, and the combination of weak
lift and possible outflow boundaries may support periodic strong to
severe storms during the day.

...Ark-La-Tex into Southeast...
A region of storms is expected to be ongoing from far eastern OK
across central AR and into northern MS Saturday morning, and could
be capable of producing strong wind gusts or marginal hail. Any
ongoing activity will likely persist throughout the day as it
propagates southeastward across LA, MS and AL. Winds below 700 mb
will not be very strong, but mid and high level flow will elongate
hodographs and may favor organization with linear storm mode.
Scattered wind damage may occur, along with hail with the more
discrete storms along the line.

Overnight, elevated hail will be possible from southeast OK across
AR aided by theta-e advection with a 30+ kt low-level jet, with
substantial elevated CAPE indicated on forecast soundings, along
with favorable deep-layer shear.

...TX...
A cold front will surge south into central TX during the day as
heating leads to substantial instability with MLCAPE to 2500 J/kg
developing. Lift will be quite weak, but strong heating may lead to
isolated severe cells capable of hail or locally severe gusts,
ending by early evening with loss of heating.

..Jewell.. 04/15/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 160442
SWODY2
SPC AC 160440

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms, possibly including an organized cluster,
may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts across parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent Gulf coast vicinity Sunday
afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
The center of a fairly prominent subtropical high may shift westward
off the Mexican Pacific coast, to the south of Baja, during this
period. However, the northern periphery of this high is forecast to
rebuild across the Mexican/U.S. international border vicinity, as
the mid-latitude westerlies to the north undergo amplification.
This likely will include a building mid-level ridge across the Great
Basin and Canadian/U.S. Rockies, downstream of an evolving
large-scale trough and embedded low offshore of the U.S. Pacific
coast.

As the ridging builds, a pair of short wave perturbations, initially progressing across and east of the Rockies by 12Z Sunday, will begin
to dig southeastward. Models continue to indicate that they will
remain largely out of phase, with the southern wave digging across
the southern Great Plains before turning eastward across and east of
the lower Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night, as the more
prominent northern impulse digs across the northern Great Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley.

In the wake of a more significant mid-level trough forecast to
gradually progress east of the northern Atlantic Seaboard, the
primary surface frontal zone may initially stall across the southern
Atlantic Seaboard into the lower Mississippi Valley, where a weak
frontal wave may form in response to the trailing southern
perturbation. Seasonably moist and potentially unstable
boundary-layer air will generally remain confined to the south of
this front, and perhaps a pre-frontal convectively generated
boundary initially extending across southern Georgia/northern
Florida toward the Arkansas/Louisiana border vicinity.

...Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent eastern Gulf coast...
Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing early Sunday along
the front and/or prefrontal boundary, and subsequent developments
remain unclear. However, models continue to indicate that
moderately large mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg
will develop to the south of the boundaries by Sunday afternoon, in
advance of the approaching mid-level perturbation. Increasing
forcing for ascent and strengthening southwesterly to westerly flow
in the lower/mid troposphere (30-50+ kt in the 850-500 my layer) are
then expected to contribute to an environment conducive to organized
severe thunderstorm development. Initially, this may include
supercells capable of producing large hail and locally strong
surface gusts. Gradually the upscale growth of one or two
organizing clusters appears possible, accompanied by increasing
potential to produce damaging wind gusts while propagating
southeastward through Sunday evening.

..Kerr.. 04/16/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 160605
SWODY2
SPC AC 160603

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the
central Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

...Synopsis...
A progressive/largely zonal upper-level pattern will prevail over
the CONUS on Tuesday, with the strongest westerlies over the
northern half of the CONUS.

...Central Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley...
Potentially multiple low-amplitude disturbances, some of which may
be convectively augmented, will overspread the central
Rockies/central Plains to Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday amidst of
ribbon of moderately strong west-northwesterly flow aloft. A strong
elevated mixed layer will advect eastward over the region and tend
to limit the likelihood/confidence in deep convective development,
particularly with southward extent across the region.

At least widely scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across the
region early Tuesday, some of which could produce isolated severe
hail coincident with ample elevated instability on the edge of the
elevated mixed layer.

With afternoon heating/mixing, the boundary layer will otherwise
become moderately to strongly unstable by late Tuesday afternoon. At
least isolated/widely scattered deep convective development appears
probable especially near the boundary across Nebraska/southeast
South Dakota into northern Kansas. Other potentially strong/severe thunderstorms, albeit driven by lesser buoyancy, may develop across
eastern Wyoming/northeast Colorado within an evolving low-level
upslope flow regime.

With moderate-strength westerly flow aloft, some initial supercells
can be expected along with multicells and the potential evolution of
multiple clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to the
primary hazards. Storms should increase in coverage toward/after
sunset as the low-level jet re-intensifies and contributes to the east-southeastward persistence of storms Tuesday night, some of
which may remain severe into the overnight.

...Southern High Plains...
Very isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop in vicinity of
the dryline/surface trough Tuesday late afternoon. Most global
models are relatively sparse in terms of convective development, but
multiple convection-allowing models lend some support to this
possibility across west/northwest Texas and far western Oklahoma.
Accordingly, a low probability of thunderstorms (near 10 percent)
appears warranted, and strong convectively enhanced wind gusts could
occur Tuesday late afternoon and early evening if/where storms
develop.

..Guyer.. 05/16/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 160611
SWODY2
SPC AC 160609

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MISSOURI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD HAIL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are expected across portions of the
central Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

...Synopsis...
A progressive/largely zonal upper-level pattern will prevail over
the CONUS on Tuesday, with the strongest westerlies over the
northern half of the CONUS.

...Central Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley...
Potentially multiple low-amplitude disturbances, some of which may
be convectively augmented, will overspread the central
Rockies/central Plains to Lower Missouri Valley on Tuesday amidst of
ribbon of moderately strong west-northwesterly flow aloft. A strong
elevated mixed layer will advect eastward over the region and tend
to limit the likelihood/confidence in deep convective development
with southward extent across the region.

At least widely scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing across the
region early Tuesday, some of which could produce isolated severe
hail coincident with ample elevated instability on the edge of the
elevated mixed layer.

With afternoon heating/mixing, the boundary layer will otherwise
become moderately to strongly unstable by late Tuesday afternoon. At
least isolated/widely scattered deep convective development appears
probable especially near the boundary across Nebraska/southeast
South Dakota into northern Kansas. Other potentially strong/severe thunderstorms, albeit driven by lesser buoyancy, may develop across
eastern Wyoming/northeast Colorado within an evolving low-level
upslope flow regime.

With moderate-strength westerly flow aloft, some initial supercells
can be expected along with multicells and the potential evolution of
multiple clusters. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to the
primary hazards. Storms should increase in coverage toward/after
sunset as the low-level jet re-intensifies and contributes to the east-southeastward persistence of storms Tuesday night, some of
which may remain severe into the overnight.

...Southern High Plains...
Very isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop in vicinity of
the dryline/surface trough Tuesday late afternoon. Most global
models are relatively sparse in terms of convective development, but
multiple convection-allowing models lend some support to this
possibility across west/northwest Texas and far western Oklahoma.
Accordingly, a low probability of thunderstorms (near 10 percent)
appears warranted, and strong convectively enhanced wind gusts could
occur Tuesday late afternoon and early evening if/where storms
develop.

..Guyer.. 05/16/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 161723
SWODY2
SPC AC 161721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across portions of the central
Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Damaging winds will be the most likely threat, followed by large
hail.

...Synopsis...
High pressure will build across the East as a large upper trough
exits New England. To the west, relatively zonal flow will exist
across central parts of the country, with various embedded waves
related to thunderstorm clusters.

Pockets of mid and upper 60s F dewpoints will exist across parts of
the central Plains as southerly winds persist and a low forms across
the OK/TX Panhandles. A weak cold front will push south across NE
and KS, with a warm front moving into IA. The boundaries will
provide a focus for storms throughout the day, with the primary
damaging wind risks from late afternoon into the overnight hours.

...Middle and Lower MO Valley into the middle MS Valley...
Storms may be ongoing Tuesday morning from northeast OK across
eastern KS and NE, within a north-south oriented warm advection
regime aided by 30-40 kt southwesterly 850 mb flow. This southwest
flow will also push a warm front north across IA and southeast SD
during the day, and additional storms, possibly forming into an MCS,
are expected across IA during the late afternoon, then into northern
MO during the evening. Steep lapse rates aloft will favor vigorous
convection with damaging wind potential and hail. The southeastern
extent of the wind risk toward the MS Valley may depend on boundary
layer temperatures overnight.

...Central Plains...
Diurnal storms are likely to form late in the afternoon from
southeast WY into northeast CO and southwest NE, developing further east/southeast across much of KS as a cold front moves south across
NE. Initial western activity may be high based with gusty winds and
marginal hail, with a more widespread wind threat possible across
northern and eastern KS and into western MO after 03Z. Given the
large area of strong instability, numerous storms/clusters are
expected, and sufficient uncertainty exists regarding timing and
precise locations to preclude an Enhanced Risk at this time.
However, higher probabilities for mainly damaging winds may be
needed in later updates.

..Jewell.. 05/16/2022

$$


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ACUS02 KWNS 170557
SWODY2
SPC AC 170555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...AND FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, especially
across parts of the Lower Ohio Valley and the Colorado Front Range
into the south-central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A broad zone of west-northwesterly flow aloft is expected to cover
the northern two-thirds of the CONUS on Wednesday. One embedded
shortwave trough is forecast to move from the OH Valley into
portions of the Mid Atlantic, while another shortwave trough is
forecast to move across the northern Plains and upper Great Lakes
regions. One weak surface low may move along a front across the OH
Valley, while another weak surface low is forecast to develop over
the southern Plains.

...Mid MS Valley into the Lower OH Valley...
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period across portions of the lower OH Valley, in association with
the eastward-moving shortwave trough. Diurnal destabilization may
support some strengthening of morning convection as it moves
eastward, and also redevelopment in the wake of the early-day storms
along a weak surface boundary. Moderate midlevel west-northwesterly
flow will support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized
convection, and the strongest storms will pose a threat of hail and
locally damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty regarding the evolution of
early-day convection and the coverage of redevelopment in its wake
precludes higher severe probabilities at this time.

...CO Front Range into the south-central High Plains...
Modest low-level moisture return within a weak upslope-flow regime
will support weak-to-moderate destabilization from the CO Front
Range into parts of the south-central High Plains by late afternoon.
Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop near the higher terrain
and spread eastward with time into the south-central High Plains,
with deep-layer shear sufficient to support multicell clusters and
perhaps a couple of supercells, with an attendant risk of hail and
locally severe gusts.

...Central/northern MN into northwest WI...
Low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited across
Minnesota in advance of a cold front. However, steep midlevel lapse
rates, cool temperatures aloft, and increasing ascent associated
with an approaching shortwave trough will support widely scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Small hail and gusty
winds will be possible, though uncertainty regarding the magnitude
of buoyancy precludes severe probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 05/17/2022

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171728
SWODY2
SPC AC 171726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...UPPER
MIDWEST INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Wednesday
across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley into the Lower Ohio
Valley, the Upper Midwest into Upper Michigan, and the Colorado
Front Range into the south-central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the mid MS Valley Wednesday
morning will move quickly eastward across the central Appalachians
through the day, reaching eastern VA/NC by Wednesday evening. A
separate shortwave trough will move east-southeastward from the
northern Plains across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the
period. At the surface, a weak low should develop across the Midwest
to the Lower Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. Rich low-level
moisture will remain confined to the south of a ill-defined
front/convectively reinforced outflow boundary extending from parts
of the central Plains into the mid MS and lower OH Valleys.

...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Lower Ohio Valley...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
Wednesday morning from parts of MO into the mid MS Valley. This
activity will be associated with an eastward-moving shortwave trough
and perhaps convectively augmented MCV. Most guidance suggests this
convection will outpace the return of substantial low-level moisture
as it moves quickly eastward across the lower OH Valley, and a
general weakening trend will probably occur through late Wednesday
morning into the early afternoon.

The potential for either restrengthening of the morning convection
or additional intense thunderstorm development along its trailing
outflow boundary Wednesday afternoon/evening still appears rather
uncertain, as the better forcing associated with the shortwave
trough should shift quickly eastward over the central Appalachians.
If either of these scenarios occur, then a more focused, mesoscale
corridor of greater damaging wind and severe hail potential may
exist across portions of KY/TN. However, there is still a fair
amount of spread in guidance regarding these possibilities, so for
now have opted to just expand the Marginal Risk. Any strong to
severe thunderstorms that do manage to form should weaken Wednesday
evening over the central Appalachians as they encounter a less
unstable airmass.

...Minnesota/Wisconsin into Upper Michigan...
Low-level moisture is expected to remain fairly limited ahead of a
shortwave trough and related surface low that will move across the
Upper Midwest through the day. Still, even with surface dewpoints
remaining generally in the low to mid 50s, around 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE should develop through a combination of diurnal heating and
cool mid-level temperatures overspreading this region. A 50-60+ kt west-northwesterly mid-level jet will likely accompany the shortwave
trough, and deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support
organized updrafts. By early Wednesday afternoon, convection should
increase in both coverage and intensity across parts of MN as ascent
preceding the shortwave trough overspreads the warm sector. A mix of
discrete cells and multicells posing a threat for both isolated
severe hail and damaging wind gusts should spread eastward from MN
into parts of WI and Upper MI before slowly weakening Wednesday
evening.

...Colorado Front Range into the South-Central High Plains...
Modest low-level moisture should return across parts of eastern CO
and northeastern NM through the day in a rather weak upslope flow
regime. As strong daytime heating occurs, MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg
should develop as the boundary layer becomes very well mixed.
Initially high-based convection that forms over the higher terrain
along/near the CO Front Range and adjacent northeastern NM should
spread east-southeastward through Wednesday afternoon and evening
across parts of the south-central High Plains. Deep-layer shear of
25-35 kt will support some convective organization, with mainly
multicells capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

..Gleason.. 05/17/2022

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180558
SWODY2
SPC AC 180556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA...SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/NORTHERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night over portions of the upper Midwest. Large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible. Strong
thunderstorms are also possible from southern Missouri eastward
through the lower Ohio Valley into the Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move
across the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains on Thursday,
in conjunction with a strong upper-level jet and
southeastward-moving cold front. A surface low initially over
southern AB/SK will move slowly southeastward during the day, while
another low is forecast to rapidly deepen along the front and move
from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A warm front will move rapidly northward during the day on Thursday,
likely reaching parts of WI and southern MN by Thursday night.
Guidance varies widely regarding the quality of low-level moisture
by early evening, which in turn impacts the magnitude of buoyancy
across the warm sector. Despite these differences, most guidance
suggests that most of the warm sector will generally remain capped
through the day, with isolated thunderstorm development possible
near or just north of the warm front by late afternoon. Thunderstorm
coverage will likely increase during the evening along the cold
front as it begins to impinge on the region.

Even if moisture return is initially rather weak through the
afternoon, it seems plausible that continued moisture transport
through the evening will eventually support moderate buoyancy, while
increasing deep-layer flow will provide sufficient effective shear
for organized storm clusters and perhaps a few supercells. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats.
Depending on the quality of low-level moisture by early evening,
increasing low-level shear may also support a tornado threat with
any sustained supercell.

...Mid MS Valley/OH Valley into parts of the Mid Atlantic...
A diffuse surface boundary will likely be draped somewhere from the
lower OH Valley into the Carolinas/southern VA by Thursday
afternoon, with moderate buoyancy expected along and south of the
boundary by peak heating. The position of this boundary will be
influenced by antecedent convection during the D1/Wednesday period.
Scattered thunderstorms may develop Thursday afternoon near this
boundary and move east-southeastward. Modest westerly midlevel flow
will support effective shear of 25-35 kt, supporting organized
multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two. Hail and locally
damaging wind gusts will be possible with the stronger
cells/clusters. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be
needed, if confidence increases in the most likely corridor of storm development.

Further west, an MCV may emerge from the Plains and move across
parts of central/southern MO through the day. Depending on the
timing of this feature and the character of boundary-layer heating
and moisture along its path, a few stronger storms may develop in
association with this MCV, posing a threat of hail, locally damaging
wind, and perhaps a tornado or two.

..Dean.. 05/18/2022

$$

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