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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0882

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 23, 2022 18:30:27
    ACUS11 KWNS 231830
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231829=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-231930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0882
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0129 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

    Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle into northeast
    South Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 231829Z - 231930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storm
    clusters, though marginally severe hail or a brief tornado cannot be
    ruled out, especially with storms closer to the surface low in South
    Carolina. A WW issuance is possible if greater upscale growth of
    storms occurs.

    DISCUSSION...Convective coverage continues to increase within a
    broad low-level confluence zone south and east of a surface low
    center from the FL Panhandle into SC with the additional aid of
    robust insolation. The strong surface heating has also fostered
    ample boundary-layer mixing, with 18Z mesoanalysis depicting
    widespread 7.5-8 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates ahead of the ongoing
    storms. As such, damaging gusts may accompany the stronger
    downbursts in longer-lived storms. From far eastern GA into SC,
    surface winds are slightly more backed, with modest veering with
    height contributing to some deep-layer shear. Here, convective mode
    has recently been more transient supercellular. Despite poor
    mid-level lapse rates, small hail remains possible with the more
    organized supercell structures and a 1 inch stone/brief tornado
    cannot be completely ruled out. Deep-layer shear/upper support
    expected to remain modest, and the severe threat may remain more on
    the isolated side. If the more linear storms can congeal cold pools,
    greater corridors of damaging gusts may occur and a WW issuance
    would potentially become necessary.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/23/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-UoyXTDR3UXX1oavg24eF3x96qmO71aTbLNTIbbW_SmJpn9ZRa94ktqDtkORrCyQl4C6hBtJj= CzjQovR0nuOArWnYeM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30298627 32698425 33508302 34058145 34388047 34337972
    34087905 33767898 33187963 32518038 31898099 31318192
    30818282 30428410 30258483 29928560 30298627=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 27, 2023 18:12:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 271812
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271811=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-272015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0882
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0111 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of east-central New Mexico and west Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 271811Z - 272015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of large to very large
    hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will increase between
    19-21Z. A watch is likely this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates deepening
    cumulus focused along a lee trough immediately east of the higher
    terrain in eastern NM this afternoon. Continued diurnal heating amid
    moist east-southeasterly upslope flow (upper 50s dewpoints) will
    support widely scattered thunderstorm development during the next
    couple hours -- with an initial focus near the intersection of the
    lee trough and an east-west-oriented remnant outflow boundary in
    east-central NM.=20

    Strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow (per regional VWP)
    will allow storms to spread eastward off the higher terrain into an
    environment characterized by moderate surface-based buoyancy (around
    2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 30-40 kt of effective shear. Long, generally
    straight hodographs and subtle large-scale ascent should initially
    favor discrete/semi-discrete splitting supercells capable of large
    to very large hail (around 2 inch diameter) and damaging winds.
    However, backed surface winds/enhanced low-level shear and sheltered boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of the remnant outflow
    boundary could allow for a couple tornadoes with any
    stronger/longer-lived updrafts. With time, enhanced outflow
    generation and cell mergers could yield localized upscale growth
    into several organized clusters.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4hlnLRttbiXESzIDdD6ZGToKTdmC219hgih0V6jk6hyyx7bFBrjKWfrr3Nr5Tom9QwOxH1R7r= c0cDahpsLnn_-8_1UA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35040271 34930234 34780201 34450188 33760195 33550211
    33120265 33070314 33130374 33290425 33460464 33740496
    34100522 34620537 34980539 35370526 35510503 35590479
    35550434 35430396 35300358 35170313 35040271=20


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