ACUS11 KWNS 231720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231720=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-231915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Areas affected...Portions of extreme northern South Carolina into
southern and central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231720Z - 231915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust may occur with an approaching squall line.
The severe threat is expected to be isolated enough to preclude a WW
issuance at this time.

DISCUSSION...A squall line with a history of strong wind gusts
continues in advance of a warm-core low across SC and is poised to
move into NC through mid afternoon. Ahead of the squall line,
temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s F into central NC, contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings suggest
the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer up to 850 mb wherever
surface temperatures can reach 85 F. Given continued heating into
NC, a couple strong to potentially damaging gusts will be possible
with this squall line. However, severe gusts are expected to be very
sparse and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri.. 05/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4QafqV5Spff8B4kz49mC7_SDHwkZMbkefUCTLMgt9UX6b0_IhnLG4S5wZPIBx0F1HHCF13Xkz= VhFZ26Ktz1jrUimXVQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34208042 34808068 35298075 35888044 35908005 35917933
35917895 35807846 35647797 35207795 34597842 34307901
34157971 34208042=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 270254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270253=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-270500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0880
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Areas affected...much of eastern New Mexico...and southwest into
west Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 241...

Valid 270253Z - 270500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 241 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for mainly large hail and localized wind damage
is expected to persist from portions of eastern New Mexico into
western Texas, and a new watch may be needed prior to 04Z. A brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Slow-moving, meandering storms persist over mainly two
areas. The first is over east-central NM near western portions of an
old outflow boundary. This area of convergence intersects an axis of instability extending north out of southwest TX. Gusty southeasterly
surface winds are maintaining boundary-layer mixing, and helping to
keep surface temperatures relatively warm, up to around 80 F.

Another more active area has been over southwest TX, where numerous
storms persist, some splitting. Recently, a storm or two has shown
signs of hail over 2.00" diameter.

Given the aforementioned boundary-layer mixing, and ample/deep
moisture profiles, convective inhibition should remain low enough
for storms to persist for several more hours. As such, a new watch
will need to be considered for later tonight.

..Jewell.. 05/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_7fnqRTqjaIeUiQCHdWKGBrOju6HQ7u4gao6pCwS8kb9PxT2qbZkWNCSkGE0nPNcvNl-m2vuD= YUzKyF6a3ji6GLe0RY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 29760255 29700279 29640321 29910385 30360448 31040470
32170474 33570484 34250524 34730527 34950487 35070403
34960331 34740277 34450232 34290209 31970202 29760255=20


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