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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0875

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 22, 2022 20:15:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 222015
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222015=20 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-222145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0875
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0315 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into NY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261...

    Valid 222015Z - 222145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated hail
    continues. Downstream watch issuance is possible depending on
    convective trends.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
    along a pre-frontal trough from central NY southward to far northern
    VA. Somewhat stronger instability is present from parts of
    central/eastern PA into MD and northern VA, as temperatures have
    generally warmed into the upper 80s and lower 90s across these
    areas. With latest mesoanalysis showing a swath of steepened
    low-level lapse rates due to a well-mixed boundary layer ahead of
    the ongoing convection, scattered damaging winds should continue to
    be the main severe threat. Still, modest enhancement to the
    mid-level west-southwesterly flow may encourage some updraft
    organization, and marginally severe hail may occur with the
    strongest cores. Current expectations are for this activity to
    spread eastward across the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    261 over the next couple of hours. Depending on convective trends,
    either a new, small Severe Thunderstorm Watch or local extension in
    area may eventually be needed across parts of NJ into southern NY.

    ..Gleason.. 05/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!51B-1EUwp1sEhcrZsdOJvXg7FEMsJjfUjih16fnor8sNxrV_CNjWFwM7VtRpKP1xCk7lwSTJm= U0vqVEGlNIm-N6zy7k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38887775 39907772 40947706 41427658 42327569 42747522
    42337451 41597436 41457357 40827374 40337399 39197508
    38757578 38777742 38887775=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 26, 2023 20:42:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 262042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262042=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-262245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0875
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0342 PM CDT Fri May 26 2023

    Areas affected...the northern High Plains region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262042Z - 262245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging winds and hail is forecast to
    increase over the next few hours as storms develop. WW issuance may
    be required by 6 PM.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis locates a weak surface low over
    central Wyoming north of Rawlins, and a trough/front extending
    northeastward across southeastern Montana and northwestern North
    Dakota. Visible satellite/radar loops show convection increasing
    across the central Wyoming area, in the vicinity the low, and
    northeastward along the surface boundary, as daytime heating of the
    modestly moist (50s surface dewpoints) boundary layer across the
    region yielding 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

    Given somewhat weak flow aloft, severe risk with the
    initial/developing convection should remain limited/pulse-like.=20
    With time, however, increasing convective coverage may result in
    upscale growth into a northeastward-moving, semi-organized band of
    convection by early evening. This could result in an uptick wind
    risk, with WW issuance possible in the next few hours in
    anticipation of the gradually increasing severe risk.

    ..Goss/Hart.. 05/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9jVjtHZ0SCloolbj8e-ZBXzNG03YmZgaXl8AsJuH09fIckGkorjG0UNrFjabmG0RR0nY_g9mi= 4FaKX801OY_9xo9kvY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

    LAT...LON 46480863 47020721 47080487 46780370 44720325 43460358
    43460690 44570719 45150849 45770902 46480863=20


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