ACUS11 KWNS 221639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221639=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-221845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Areas affected...portions of southwest Virginia into extreme
northwest North Carolina and far southeast West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221639Z - 221845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms through
the mid afternoon hours. However, the severe threat is expected to
remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...While deep-layer ascent associated with a mid-level
trough is expected to remain north of the central Appalachians, an
approaching MCV along the OH/WV border is locally enhancing ascent
in tandem with orographic lifting along the higher terrain. MRMS
mosaic radar imagery depicts an increase in convection across
central WV/extreme western VA, and these storms are gradually
approaching a destabilizing airmass. Surface temperatures are
already rising through the lower 80s F and are expected reach the
upper 80s F by mid afternoon. Modifying the 12Z RNK observed
sounding to current surface temperatures/dewpoints (84/66 F)
suggests that 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 8.5 C/km 0-3km lapse rates are
already in place. Given the presence of a well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by over 100 J/kg 0-3km CAPE and around 1000 J/kg
DCAPE, at least a couple of damaging gusts from wet downbursts
should accompany the stronger pulse cellular storms despite weak
ambient vertical shear. Still, damaging gusts are expected to remain
isolated enough such that a WW issuance is not currently expected.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4n7kHS2A2Pg0-wUqAkXSj0-Tq0FStLipdOkcwgo2Nx_8-y1RgaOin8V_PMnZfsYfzXs9yLWtt= r7cpgO4FkphgmBD0PY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...

LAT...LON 36338107 36578178 36788184 37208184 37578174 38098154
38448115 38498083 38428033 38277993 37877937 37487902
37137879 36877896 36667953 36338107=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 260707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260706=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-260900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0871
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri May 26 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

Valid 260706Z - 260900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible over
the next few hours from eastern New Mexico into west Texas. A small
severe thunderstorm watch may be needed, depending upon convective
trends over the next hour.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from Lubbock shows an MCS from
northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Severe storms are
ongoing along the southwestern edge of the MCS, where the RAP has
MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Additional storms have
recently initiated further south, in the area southwest of Clovis.
These storms are likely developing in response to warm advection
associated with the strengthening low-level jet. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layer shear is present across much of the
southern Plains. The Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 45 to 50 kt of 0-6 km
shear, which will support continued severe storm development. Wind
damage and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. The
duration of the severe threat remains uncertain. Convective trends
will be watched over the next hour to determine whether an
additional watch will be needed.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5WzWu0MdBj5O6jOww1vx6uRNQUfqMUx4DSbYtglbNbSg0FxgR3Fw6hvR1YR8ouQdsAVShS7vI= MoDDPOEUmwNkDExV2w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34320185 33780224 33950361 34350430 34910411 35040326
34740213 34320185=20


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