ACUS11 KWNS 221620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221620=20 VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-22184=
5-

Mesoscale Discussion 0869
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Areas affected...Portions of northern/central VA into the eastern WV Panhandle...MD...PA...NY...NJ...DC...and a small part of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 221620Z - 221845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and hail should increase as thunderstorms develop by early this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly clear skies ahead of a front will
allow the airmass to quickly destabilize into early this afternoon
across parts of VA/MD/PA/NY and vicinity. A rather moist low-level
airmass is in place across this region, with generally 60s to low
70s surface dewpoints. Fairly cool mid-level temperatures are also
present, which coupled with continued diurnal heating will likely
support MLCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Locally
greater instability is possible across PA, MD, and VA where better
low-level moisture is present. The stronger mid-level flow
associated with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern
Canada should remain displaced mostly to the west of the surface
warm sector. Still, around 25-35 kt of southwesterly winds at 500 mb
(weaker with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic) should foster
similar values of effective bulk shear and some updraft
organization. Mainly multicell clusters are expected to develop
early this afternoon, initially over the higher terrain of
VA/MD/PA/NY. As this activity strengthens and spreads eastward, it
should be capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and
perhaps isolated hail. Most guidance suggests that initial
thunderstorm development will occur by 17-18Z (1-2 PM EDT). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued around that time frame to
address the increasing threat through the rest of the afternoon.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4cu7d3fSYEX3RW5CNJQSWh4pYE3pjySfzzBFdxqssjVL_hU5xp6tvL3m7KCxDXWenkJiAKJn5= QR1k35eJcnLFrAw8Gs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40277492 38357711 37817851 38427934 39287915 40067874
42267690 43087601 43847468 43807433 43607359 43287325
42827302 41657371 40277492=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 260203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260202=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-260330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0869
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0902 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

Areas affected...Northeast NM into the western TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

Valid 260202Z - 260330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and localized severe gusts
continues. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...At 02 UTC, a long-lived thunderstorm cluster is moving southeastward across far northeast NM and the western OK Panhandle,
with supercells ongoing near/north of Tucumcari, and another
supercell moving into western Harding County, NM. Favorably steep
midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 00Z ABQ and AMA soundings) and
MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (locally greater) will support vigorous
convection into late evening. Veering wind profiles with 35-45 kt of
effective shear will continue to support organized storms.=20

Evolution of convection into late evening remains somewhat
uncertain. In the short term, the ongoing slow-moving supercells
will likely pose the primary severe hazard. Recent VWPs from KAMA
indicate that the forecast increase in low-level southeasterly flow
is underway, with a modest strengthening of low-level shear
potentially supporting a brief tornado threat with any persistent
supercell. Otherwise, large hail and localized severe gusts will
remain possible. With time, cell mergers into the ongoing storm
cluster approaching the northwest TX Panhandle may support somewhat
organized upscale growth, with an attendant increase in severe-gust
potential later tonight.=20

Some severe threat may spread southeastward out of WW 238 later
tonight, and downstream watch issuance is possible depending on
short-term observational trends.

..Dean/Edwards.. 05/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4-us68YgAxQAoykZ_bpcqjLXSSKDtWi-oDnPpZLcfmghsBXFM35RiAMkeh2152VUQGCHvZihq= dZ0_B-eEVJlPPhb9MY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35970485 36670336 36860255 36710198 35830194 34260187
34220315 34580375 34910433 35250488 35970485=20


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