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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0867

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 22, 2022 07:09:46
    ACUS11 KWNS 220709
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 220709=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-220915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0867
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0209 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...

    Valid 220709Z - 220915Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts approaching severe limits are
    still possible through 4-6 AM CDT, particularly across the middle
    and upper coastal plain. A new severe weather watch is not
    currently anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Embedded within light (around 10 kt) and weakly sheared
    deep-layer west-southwesterly mean ambient flow, peak thunderstorm
    intensities have generally been slowly diminishing along the leading
    edge of southward and eastward advancing convective outflows.=20
    Inflow is becoming characterized by weaker CAPE with some cooling of
    the seasonably moist boundary layer across the coastal plain, but
    potential instability does still remain strong (up to 3000 J/kg).=20=20

    Given this lingering instability, it might still not be out of the
    question that one or two mesoscale convective vortices could become
    better defined, with strengthening rear inflow and downdrafts, and
    potential for strong surface gusts approaching severe limits,
    particularly west and southwest of the Greater Houston area.=20
    However, it is not clear that this will require a new severe weather
    watch.

    ..Kerr.. 05/22/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7voJJ9iPI5fwjWsdUFMLHLsIVR3XU59xbU3OyQabUGvzvAU0pwBYUK_UQWmnG-YNHPCunJIxg= lvrs10X_ocUBhUhePY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29049763 29289687 30039638 30529532 30799418 29849357
    29459411 28619616 28169750 28399785 29049763=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 25, 2023 22:50:40
    ACUS11 KWNS 252250
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252249=20
    TXZ000-260045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0867
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0549 PM CDT Thu May 25 2023

    Areas affected...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237...

    Valid 252249Z - 260045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and damaging winds will
    likely persist for another 2-3 hours.

    DISCUSSION...The strongest activity within WW 237 remains a
    supercell moving southeast, south of Marfa. However, this storm has
    shown a weakening trend on the MRMS 7 and 9 km CAPPI. With storm
    outflow pushing into the Davis Mountains, the most likely areas for
    additional storm development will be along that outflow boundary
    arcing westward from the weakening storm. There will be a very
    modest increase in the low-level jet in the region. It does not
    appear likely, though, that convective coverage will increase given
    that nocturnal stabilization will have begun prior to the jet
    strengthening. The overall severe threat is expected to remain
    somewhat isolated, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
    threats over the next 2-3 hours.

    ..Wendt.. 05/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-vDk4C1BWolmXwsRNPZQszK9nEc55_LcxU0kXwLUaILpE7fgpgkuyjE1OFmMvghDMeNFKRSt1= RkHmYFShCQ65ixBDHQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 30660331 30890388 30880432 31020468 31060498 30750507
    30620496 30210482 29620443 28980345 28940314 29300265
    29800265 30660331=20


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