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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0863

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 21, 2022 23:14:45
    ACUS11 KWNS 212314
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212314=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0863
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0614 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

    Areas affected...Central Texas to the Arklatex region

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258...

    Valid 212314Z - 220115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 258
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and severe hail continues
    across WW 258 - primarily along and west of the I-35 corridor in the
    near term. Thunderstorm development across northeast TX and the
    Arklatex region remains likely later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional reflectivity data continues to show
    isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along and west of the
    I-35 corridor across central TX. GOES IR imagery and MRMS vertically
    integrated ice trends reveal the pulse-like nature of this
    convection with several intense, but relatively short lived
    updrafts. The overall poor organization of this convection so far is
    largely attributable to storm motions along/behind the cold frontal
    boundary (leading to destructive storm interactions) and weak
    storm-relative winds through the column. However, the combination of
    65-70 F dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of the cold
    front are maintaining a favorable thermodynamic environment for
    intense updrafts. A few 1 inch hail reports support this idea, and
    this general trend should continue for the next few hours.=20

    To the northeast along the front, a few attempts at convective
    initiation have been noted, but weak forcing for ascent has
    precluded robust CI so far. A southward surge of the cold front
    after 00 UTC is depicted in most guidance, and should boost the
    potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms with an attendant
    severe hail/wind threat.

    ..Moore.. 05/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6a-30Dwm9qkCtggDqN3WGw5obT_wNEg19SaA_kPx6ryKwek9UcduIHJPCaiFy-IVpUxhpj1mh= b46eU3ScxVBv-HhJew$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 29740060 30380057 30930007 31199950 31539900 32039825
    32749713 33499592 33889528 34389487 34489431 34129394
    33589388 33159393 32749423 32069516 31309619 30589745
    29809856 29549945 29469985 29410023 29470049 29740060=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 25, 2023 07:27:06
    ACUS11 KWNS 250727
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250726=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-250930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0863
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0226 AM CDT Thu May 25 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico...West Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236...

    Valid 250726Z - 250930Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage will likely
    continue for a couple more hours. However, the threat should become
    more isolated with time and additional weather watch issuance is not
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Lubbock
    shows several supercells embedded in a cluster of strong to severe
    storms from near the New Mexico-Texas state line extending to just
    southwest of Lubbock. The storms are associated with a subtle
    shortwave trough riding eastward over the top of an upper-level
    ridge. The cluster is located behind an outflow boundary that is
    surging southward across west Texas. Although instability is weak,
    moderate deep-layer shear is evident on RAP analysis, with 0-6 km
    shear mostly between 35 and 40 knots across much of west Texas. The
    storms should remain organized in this environment for another hour
    or two, moving east-southeastward across west Texas. Rotating cells
    could produced isolated large hail. Wind damage will also be
    possible. The severe threat should become isolated as instability
    weakens, and the outflow boundary continues to surge southward.

    ..Broyles.. 05/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!91vm5P5fRBFufti5aNuEbc4KBFlvSulUS2Hv-lTrLafKavUx6QiHIA5ZRvOYPamaU8c7Apgat= 4LCtDJC-KiH-9_xBqI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33840316 33670214 33380145 33150126 32820121 32630133
    32520167 32560200 32750252 33110319 33290341 33450355
    33640358 33780350 33860338 33840316=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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