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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0862

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 21, 2022 22:32:57
    ACUS11 KWNS 212232
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212232=20
    TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-220030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0862
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0532 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

    Areas affected...North-central to northeast Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257...

    Valid 212232Z - 220030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 257
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for severe weather continues across northern to
    northeastern Arkansas with some uptick in severe wind potential
    likely over the next couple of hours. A brief/weak tornado remains
    possible along a remnant outflow boundary across northeastern
    portions of the state.

    DISCUSSION...Recent convective trends across northern AR have shown
    a collection of quasi-discrete cells and thunderstorms clusters
    beginning to amalgamate into an more organized line over the past
    hour. Furthermore, a slight bowing trend has been noted within the
    northern segment of the line with an increasing forward propagating
    speed. This trend, combined with increasing mid-level inbound
    velocities noted in KNQA imagery, suggests that the severe wind
    potential will likely increase across northern to northeast AR over
    the next couple of hours.=20

    The northern segment that has shown signs of intensification is also propagating along a residual outflow boundary, which has seen
    cool-side temperatures climb into the mid 70s over the past 1-2
    hours. Per recent forecast soundings, these low-level thermodynamic
    conditions should still support convection rooted near the surface,
    which, when combined with around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH along/north of
    the boundary, will maintain the potential for brief/weak tornadoes
    with any cell developing along the boundary.

    ..Moore.. 05/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Hs8a7U38uNJfzRb_uCHlLXnPDlcK_IS7g8HcQ5NbPCEC5PQn2q2ZvUh-ZQfzzANrHW3a2IE4= P_cust2V4suc7miwHQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35449327 36089207 36389173 36499085 36359024 36078972
    35778971 35409007 35209055 35139104 35139226 35149285
    35149320 35249338 35449327=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 25, 2023 04:39:36
    ACUS11 KWNS 250439
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250438=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-250615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0862
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1138 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236...

    Valid 250438Z - 250615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms continue to affect areas west of
    Lubbock along the New Mexico/Texas border. This activity will
    persist for several more hours, although the overall severe threat
    will likely slowly diminish through 2am CDT.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows multiple supercell
    thunderstorms over parts of Roosevelt County NM and Bailey, Lamb,
    and Cochran Counties TX. These storms are moving slowly
    south-southeastward at 10-15 knots, and have had a history of very
    large hail and damaging wind gusts earlier this evening. The
    activity is along the northern edge of the stronger southeasterly
    low-level jet, which should maintain convection for several more
    hours. However, slow diurnal cooling will result in stabilization
    and eventual decoupling of surface-based parcels. While occasional
    bouts of large hail and damaging winds will be possible for several
    more hours, climatology and recent CAM/WoFS runs suggest the more
    organized threat may begin to wane by 2am CDT.

    ..Hart.. 05/25/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-S1Uzyc_IP3_n8ryHx_gSxDsXSNdV08a-jFuQF2TfClJlr8bqytNJiubmp7hiL8TeMExTRksi= Hmu31XEF99Phy4Nm6Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 34340377 33930254 33510214 32860222 32890289 33220327
    33620353 34340377=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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