ACUS11 KWNS 212152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212151=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-212345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0860
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Areas affected...western New York...far northern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 212151Z - 212345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms may yet develop through
early evening, with marginal hail or wind gusts possible.

DISCUSSION...An effective front comprised of outflow and lake breeze
currently extends from far western NY into far northern NY, with a
building cumulus field across southwest NY. Storms are ongoing just
south of Lake Erie, and should move generally northeastward along
the front. Given substantial instability in place south of the NY
portion of the front, additional storms are expected. Given CAPE
profiles will steep lapse rates and at least marginal deep-layer
shear, a few severe cells may occur with wind and hail threat.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_P1zG_-EnYb6gVGsMT_msK-SCP5V8TSCF5wdNlpZ81-II1FD_NZBASAU2Vc9Qdaj1DOB_1bjG= baebyMxM1AJ-Tu1bUQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

LAT...LON 41997967 42437886 42947816 43087749 43197670 43227538
42937515 42337536 41977580 41837707 41647885 41707942
41797973 41997967=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 250142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250142=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-250315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0860
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...eastern New Mexico and northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 250142Z - 250315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe threat to continue over the next few hours. New
watch issuance need by 03z.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continues to move south and
east across the New Mexico/Texas border. The strongest portion of
this line was located near Curry County, where reports of 2 inch
hail and gusts up to 90 mph have been reported, along with
tornadoes. Trends in WoFs runs continue to show this portion of the
line maintaining intensity and continuing to track southward through
the evening. The rest of the broken line will continue to advance
south and eastward through the evening as well. Along and ahead of
this line, effective shear around 40-50kts and MLCAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg will support continued embedded supercell hybrids
with potential for damaging winds and large hail. Given these
trends, a new watch will be needed by 03z.

..Thornton/Edwards.. 05/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4b8iOFbEciVwSar3qWwPAQGnmYX69q7QD3PMZoxa3FlRZ9wmspJ39MMk50QVSu-PI9si6z0A7= J9Ggwd2N19eKnaztz8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35540249 36190237 36280213 36270177 36240145 36180096
35990076 35710068 35370064 35030063 34170063 33670070
33380070 33130076 33010081 32970099 32930143 32980198
32930270 32960350 33040377 33170391 33370398 33700396
33930398 34030398 34180398 34280399 34320399 34410392
34500352 34530310 34890254 35540249=20


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