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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0857

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 21, 2022 20:06:43
    ACUS11 KWNS 212006
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212006=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-212200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0857
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0306 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

    Areas affected...Central TX into the ArkLaTex region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 212006Z - 212200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected
    late this afternoon into early evening. Watch issuance is possible
    for portions of the area.

    DISCUSSION...An isolated strong thunderstorm has recently developed
    over Mason County, TX, near the intersection of the cold front and a
    weak surface trough. Gradually deepening cumulus is noted further
    northeast into north TX, southeast OK, and southwest AR, along and
    just ahead of the cold front. While large-scale ascent is generally
    weak across the region, continued heating/destabilization and
    convergence along the front will support an increase in storm
    coverage through the remainder of this afternoon into early evening.

    This area is generally on the fringe of stronger flow aloft, with
    effective shear generally less than 30 kt. However, with very strong
    buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 K/kg) and steep midlevel lapse rates
    in place, intense updrafts will be possible as storms mature,
    resulting in a threat for large hail. One or more upscale-growing
    clusters may develop due to storm mergers and outflow consolidation, potentially posing an increasing damaging wind risk with time into
    the evening. Watch issuance is possible in order to cover these
    threats.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 05/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_rCNE3cXRMRo238ctv-Gd-dno3_biDjgBQ2cGtz9S1WHIvjzEjKKsfrPXJtR2Tkh1riSNgJ3a= HfUE0NYkk_bg2jlu7I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30559978 31149912 32779698 33909555 34209503 34099455
    33889395 32939297 32389385 31809510 31309612 30709732
    30119884 29979946 30189988 30339992 30559978=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 24, 2023 22:05:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 242205
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242204=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-250000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0857
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0504 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

    Areas affected...Eastern Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 242204Z - 250000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms will occur this
    evening over parts of eastern Montana. Large hail and gusty winds
    are possible. A watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front extending
    from eastern Phillips County MT southwestward to west of Billings.=20
    Visible satellite imagery shows a cu field that clearly shows the
    front position. Scattered thunderstorms have begun to form along
    and ahead of front, in a moderately moist and unstable air mass
    (dewpoints in the upper 50s and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg). Steep
    mid-level lapse rates will promote robust updrafts, but rather weak
    southerly flow through the low/mid troposphere will limit overall
    convective organization (effective shear < 25 knots). A few
    organized multicell storms capable of hail and gusty winds are
    expected for the next few hours, but current indications are that
    the majority of storms will remain below severe limits. Therefore
    not currently planning on watch issuance.

    ..Hart/Edwards.. 05/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_ZfzarXvwX77vbgRxjxALFv4fPnriNc9qDpLVgBEYq5Mf4TXDgk4obgg4JHz0S23Ner56jaq= NTJbVto9Zz6FykygQg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

    LAT...LON 48960520 46860525 44870616 44470710 45050812 45870897
    46850782 47780759 49030774 48960520=20


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