ACUS11 KWNS 211924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211923=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-212200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Areas affected...Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211923Z - 212200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms are expected later this afternoon.
Isolated hail and strong wind gusts are possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating and destabilization has occurred over
the FL Peninsula this afternoon, with temperatures rising to near
90F and MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg noted per recent mesoanalyses.
Convection has recently begun to develop along the sea breeze along
the eastern Peninsula, and also across parts of the northwest
Peninsula, and storms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the remainder of the afternoon.

A midlevel vorticity maximum, associated with extensive convection,
is located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Recent VWPs from KTPA
and KTBW show modestly enhanced midlevel flow to the east of this
feature, supporting 20-30 kt of effective shear, which will favor
some storm organization, especially across the western Peninsula.
Strong buoyancy and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will
support some hail threat with the strongest cells/clusters. Weak
low-level flow is not ideal for an organized severe wind risk, but
relatively high PW values will support a threat of isolated wet
microbursts.=20

At this time, coverage of the severe threat is expected to remain
relatively isolated, making watch issuance unlikely.

..Dean/Hart.. 05/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9LhHcAm-_TYEcv-WjawhMzknUHQSWKq3oebitjxQrcSn8ofR9Inf7N-D0vwBRQQQ9Sz4qXSaD= NN3ZB0B2gZT_J6dRyI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 26378183 27478247 28478255 29328277 30118303 30498155
29778135 28078073 27368041 26668010 26148022 25938111
25888141 26068173 26378183=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 242046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242046=20
COZ000-242245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0855
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Wed May 24 2023

Areas affected...Southeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 242046Z - 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated large hail and severe gusts
will be possible into early evening.

DISCUSSION...A supercell is ongoing at 2045 UTC near the Las Animas
(Colorado) and Union (New Mexico) county line, with other
intensifying storms noted farther west across Huerfano County, CO.
Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will continue to
support the potential for vigorous updrafts through the remainder of
the afternoon into early evening. The strongest deep-layer
flow/shear is expected to remain farther south across eastern NM and
west TX, but weekly veering wind profiles (as noted on the PUX VWP)
are supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt, sufficient for some
storm organization and at least transient supercell structures.=20

While the strongest supercells are expected to remain south of the
CO border, strong to potentially severe storms may continue to
develop near the higher terrain, with some left-splitting supercells
also potentially moving into southeast CO from northeast NM. Large
hail is likely to be the most prominent hazard, though localized
severe gusts will also be possible, especially if there are any
outflow mergers and modest upscale growth.=20

With the organized severe threat expected to remain relatively
localized over southeast CO, watch issuance is considered unlikely,
though this will be reevaluated depending on short-term
observational trends through the remainder of the afternoon.

..Dean/Grams.. 05/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4BpWX1LWLhp87mo8pP_vn9vn7nVgqu8bYgeNkeORL8eZ6cwqajOojGF5psKJtE1uL4EvsipF7= VRTnuwPPxztJDLL7Fo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...

LAT...LON 37050380 37090479 37600498 38190491 38450455 38160308
37780275 37250264 37060286 37050380=20


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