ACUS11 KWNS 211700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211700=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-211900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0851
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CDT Sat May 21 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern IL into IN...western
OH...and far northern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 211700Z - 211900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Continuing to monitor a line of thunderstorms moving
across Illinois for signs of increasing intensity and damaging wind
potential. Watch issuance appears increasingly likely in the next
couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms is present over parts of southern/central IL at 17Z. This line has remained sub-severe so
far, with wind gusts generally in the 35-45 kt range. Still, the
airmass downstream into IN and northern KY continues to destabilize
along and south of a front. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg has become
common as temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s. Recent
high-resolution guidance suggests that this ongoing cluster will
intensify over the next couple of hours as it moves eastward across
IN, northern KY, and eventually parts of western OH. Gradually
strengthening southwesterly flow through mid levels is noted on
recent VWPs from KVWX/KIND, which should aid in thunderstorm
organization. Current expectations are for the cluster to pose a
gradually increasing threat for scattered damaging winds as it
encounters a more unstable airmass in IN and vicinity. Some hail may
also occur with the strongest updrafts. Accordingly, Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance appears likely in the next hour or two.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7cj21lgi217dmPh3ijJdoC3tUk-9pg4EQqcaKeTWXQrnaLhw_NBVuoQy6GARJjhbL0Vv4sxPM= H1u-Z7h6Yc691EtzHk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON 39478775 40888546 41108477 40808389 40378323 39658333
39098403 38618483 38048599 37518791 37598854 38648784
39478775=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 240440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240439=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-240615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0851
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

Areas affected...West Central/Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234...

Valid 240439Z - 240615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 234
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms will progress across the
remainder of ww234 over the next several hours. Wind/hail threat
continues. Local extensions or a small severe thunderstorm watch may
be warranted.

DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level disturbance that drifted into the
southern High Plains this afternoon appears partly responsible for
the MCS that evolved over the TX South Plains early this evening.
This complex of storms has matured into a large conglomerate of
convection that extends across much of the central/western portions
of ww234. Northwesterly flow at mid levels should aid southeastward
propagation along the instability axis, which extends into the
northern Hill Country. While some hail is noted in the stronger
updrafts, convective mode favors strong winds, especially along the
leading edge of the MCS where where bow-type structures continue to
develop at times. At this time it appears the strongest convection
will continue to drive toward the southeastern portions of the
watch.

..Darrow.. 05/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8QaB3mQS3unDK_SihRzjBH8qcB32S4qfv7S_YwnvhoONkG7xCA7Hr-utzQTy8i_R6F1Aty8rV= 3JXfLfcLKnKIeqEJus$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31140078 34460078 34159805 30829804 31140078=20


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