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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0848

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 21, 2022 15:07:42
    ACUS11 KWNS 211507
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211506=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-211700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0848
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1006 AM CDT Sat May 21 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of southern IL/IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 211506Z - 211700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may strengthen over the next
    couple of hours and become capable of producing scattered damaging
    winds. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...At 15Z, a small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing
    along/near the MS River in the vicinity of St. Louis MO. This
    activity is probably still slightly elevated to the north of a
    surface boundary and outflow from prior convection. However, the
    airmass downstream across parts of southern IL/IN is in the process
    of destabilizing, with diurnal heating promoting surface
    temperatures to rise generally into the 70s per recent observations.
    A fairly moist low-level airmass is also in place across this area,
    along with modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates per 12Z sounding
    from ILX. This cluster may become surface based over the next couple
    of hours as it spreads into southern IL/IN and encounters greater
    instability. Given the already linear mode, scattered damaging winds
    should be the main threat, although some hail may also occur.
    Convective trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing thunderstorm intensity, which may prompt watch issuance in next
    couple of hours.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4RLcCvdW4mz0XhcG7x_ZDQ3lGF-kC9HkSBpum29X-Yu6NND_QAobZTkQD1Vfh39Wv17YQaHy2= p0feJM54pj5D09ZcDM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37808962 38428970 38988975 39778776 39878610 39738544
    38638550 38228676 37808962=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 23, 2023 23:26:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 232326
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232325=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-240130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0848
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0625 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

    Areas affected...southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233...

    Valid 232325Z - 240130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large-hail and gusty-wind threat continues within WW233.

    DISCUSSION...A mix of discrete supercells and multicell clusters are
    ongoing along and east of the dryline across the Texas Panhandle
    into portions of southwest Texas, producing large hail. Recent
    reports of hail up to 2 inches were noted along the Texas/New Mexico
    border. Discrete cells ongoing west of Lubbock have intensified
    quickly on radar, with potential for very large hail likely
    exceeding 2 inches in some areas. Cell splits and interactions with
    area outflow boundaries will likely keep storm mode fairly mixed,
    with discrete cells becoming clusters/outflow dominant. Interactions
    with surface vorticity along boundaries and mergers may allow a
    tornado, though environmental low-level shear and moisture are
    marginal. The main threats will continue to be large hail and
    occasional gusty winds, before outflow mergers lead to upscale
    growth and transition to damaging-wind threat later this evening.

    ..Thornton/Edwards.. 05/23/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6WGuOqdSUD_1T4vtj738mPSI7o0dXDxa_oTEhyse4O1WxB9OkalyiSgP5UgCr_WOnhcUv8ATk= PHza1Mxz3x0hR964Sc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33690266 34150306 35090304 35130272 35000215 34840173
    34640155 34370126 34040110 33740105 32940104 32450099
    32230104 32140148 32120193 32150220 32200244 32270253
    32560244 33020238 33420244 33690266=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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