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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0844

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 20, 2022 19:53:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 201953
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201952=20
    MIZ000-202145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0844
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 PM CDT Fri May 20 2022

    Areas affected...northern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252...

    Valid 201952Z - 202145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 252
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A tornadic supercell may persist as it travels
    east/northeast toward Lake Huron.

    DISCUSSION...The storm complex that crossed Lake MI has indeed
    evolved into a supercell, which has become tornadic as it
    encountered the warmer surface-based air mass. This storm is
    currently producing a tornado near Gaylord, MI. The air mass
    remains relatively warm for the duration of the expected storm track
    over the next couple hours, and the 19Z APX sounding shows plenty of
    low-level shear with 0-1 values around 280 m2/s2. This is higher
    than objective analysis had earlier indicated. As such, the tornado
    threat is expected to persist until the storm encounters the cooler
    air near the lake.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8bdXmVmHzVPEJLUCrmZAw-WwWzRgKOtoWrTxqns0-fwJABmGBQrBtPpWTR37gm89AdrqsxzP2= rlEN47blkAQ9cMnIaw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...APX...

    LAT...LON 45208476 45458367 45348335 45128326 44998353 44998444
    45038473 45208476=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 23, 2023 18:50:18
    ACUS11 KWNS 231850
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231850=20
    UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-232115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0844
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0150 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northeastern Nevada...northwestern Utah
    and southern Idaho

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 231850Z - 232115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms will increase in coverage early
    this afternoon. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be
    possible but coverage is expected to be too low for a weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...On the eastern fringes of a broad upper-level low over
    portions of the Pacific Northwest, early afternoon visible imagery
    showed deepening thunderstorms along the higher terrain of
    northeastern NV and western UT. As subtle height falls and diurnal
    heating continue ahead of the upper low, additional thunderstorms
    are forecast to evolve across portions of the northern Great Basin
    this afternoon. Despite limited surface moisture, diurnal heating
    and steep low/mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km were helping support
    500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE from northeastern NV to southern ID. Stronger
    mid-level flow associated with the trough is displaced to the west
    of buoyancy plume suggesting storm organization will be limited.
    However, glancing influence of effective shear near 25 kt may
    support a few more persistent multi-cell updrafts into the early
    evening. With steep low-level lapse rates and LCL heights in excess
    of 2km, the primary severe threat with these storms will be isolated
    strong to severe wind gusts from enhanced downdrafts. Given the
    coverage of organized storms and the associated severe risk is
    expected to remain modest, a weather watch is unlikely this
    afternoon.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/23/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Nv-7lMoX_VCswo777RJqFbOiHgUdwRJHuVq6PQeMzKP_ypkWaxL97mXRc2JvaCq8Yy0WEWJI= aG9qVo4svoh8d8kINw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

    LAT...LON 40361682 42671457 43111396 43101291 42931251 41821190
    40911229 39681274 39111371 38921463 38941548 39191624
    40361682=20


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