ACUS11 KWNS 182221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182221=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-182345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Areas affected...South-Central Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 240...

Valid 182221Z - 182345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 240
continues.

SUMMARY...A large hail/damaging wind threat will continue into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of mostly elevated storms continues on the
eastern periphery of the instability gradient across central
Kentucky. Greater surface based instability has developed on the
western edge of this cluster where a greater large hail/damaging
wind threat will persist. Visible satellite shows deepening cumulus
across this region, indicating continued westward growth of
surface-based storms. Ongoing storms across Taylor and Casey
counties show some supercell structures, and effective shear around
45 to 50 knots and MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg (per SPC mesoanalysis)
will continue to support updraft organization from these storms and
any new storms which develop to the west.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9I_XvQVlhUqqwdm6-jHYmFYOp8HBIDXfAKkIhCv0HJ6XoZM6-XifIOrg71Gn-SZm6BAlbU2dL= q1Tmqb5RCVV19BrU-0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 37608665 37778577 37648457 37458401 37238380 36848378
36578399 36538456 36598565 36598571 36648622 36838655
37608665=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 182219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182218=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-182345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0817
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023

Areas affected...northeast CO toward far northwest KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 182218Z - 182345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms over northeast Colorado may produce
strong gusts and hail as they continue to propagate southeast this
evening.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms developing southeast across
northeast CO late this afternoon may continue to sporadically
intensify with southeast extent as convection encounters slightly
stronger 0-6 km shear near the KS border. A gust of 50 kt was
reported at Sterling, CO around 30 minutes ago. If convection can be maintained, marginally better boundary-layer moisture exists with
southeast extent, in additional to modestly steep low-level lapse
rates as convection approaches the CO/KS border. Strong gusts may
accompany this activity for the next couple of hours before
boundary-layer inhibition increases with onset of nocturnal cooling.

..Leitman/Smith.. 05/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_o5G4hKtjrXcPZTuvbtV6hie_yvBHThb7dx02GHKDAOOj1BXMb3M3D7hllgVtoeorr4ELxnxW= -8_allWS2Si8LQvVt4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 40820272 40470226 39770183 39610182 39480189 39380216
39370239 39440282 39790325 40110352 40590347 40730338
40910308 40820272=20


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