ACUS11 KWNS 180325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180324=20
KSZ000-180530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Areas affected...Southern Half of Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236...

Valid 180324Z - 180530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind damage and isolated large hail threat will continue
to move southward across the southern half of Kansas late this
evening. An isolated tornado will be possible, and some wind gusts
will likely exceed 65 knots.

DISCUSSION...High-resolution radar imagery from Topeka and Wichita
show a well-developed linear MCS draped east-to-west across central
Kansas. The MCS is moving southeastward into a strongly unstable
airmass, where MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 2500 to 3500
J/kg range. This combined with an increasing 40 to 50 knot low-level
jet will provide strong support for continued development within the
MCS. At 0320Z, two bowing line segments where ongoing. One was
located in northeast Kansas to the west of Kansas City, and a second
was located in north-central Kansas near Salina. A swath of wind
damage will be likely with each of these line segments. The faster
moving bows will be capable of producing very strong wind gusts,
with some gusts of greater than 65 knots likely. The severe threat
should continue to be maintained as the linear MCS moves across
southern Kansas late this evening into the early overnight period.

..Broyles.. 05/18/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-FeyeC1beWNUjoe4NWjt7oDjjqLCwNZFx9VeqKAvaKec84bCTmgHs7Sny1QgOMXMTI__tM9a9= STBSfYj8Dj8w_9dTeE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 37309504 37069623 37219979 37690031 38290014 38579963
38689774 38609605 38319498 37309504=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 171928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171927=20
ALZ000-172130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0810
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023

Areas affected...southern AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171927Z - 172130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms capable of
45-60 mph gusts will potentially yield pockets of wind damage.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic imagery shows a
developing cluster of thunderstorms moving slowly east-southeast
over southwest AL. Surface observations ahead of the activity
indicate temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s with dewpoints
in the upper 60s. Weak westerly tropospheric flow according to KMOB
VAD data will favor slow, eastward-moving thunderstorms. Objective
analysis shows 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and forecast soundings show a
very moist profile. Water-loaded downdrafts will likely be the
primary hazard with the stronger cores. Where localized 45-60 mph
gusts occur over the next couple of hours (through 2130 UTC/430pm
CDT), pockets of wind damage are probable.

..Smith/Grams.. 05/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7RmXAmmNFYnpi6EvN7ud3zcCwp4o492vFDGIQZPzhZM51b89r1tX3sR7DMQeTvLejd_PxpOYZ= EsEG6NNkZ9LSwa0S08$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...

LAT...LON 31268821 31668790 31998755 31998699 31668638 31358643
31128670 31058732 31268821=20


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