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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0808

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 18, 2022 02:25:47
    ACUS11 KWNS 180225
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180225=20
    KSZ000-180400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0808
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0925 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

    Areas affected...central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236...237...

    Valid 180225Z - 180400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236, 237
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A significant wind threat (60-90 mph gusts) is developing
    across central Kansas

    DISCUSSION...A bow echo has developed across Lincoln County, KS in
    the last 30-45 minutes and has started to accelerate
    east-southeastward around 40 knots. The Russell Airport recently
    measured 75 mph on the southern portion of this bow which may be
    under representing the peak winds near the apex of the bow. The last
    several runs of the WoFs correctly showed this greater severe wind
    threat beginning between 01Z and 0130Z. The 01Z WoFs shows the
    strongest wind gusts peaking between now and 0430Z across central
    Kansas. Therefore, expect a significant wind threat as this bowing
    segment continues east-southeastward toward a reservoir of extreme
    instability (MUCAPE around 4000 J/kg). Peak wind gusts near the apex
    of this bow could approach 90 mph within the next 2 hours.

    ..Bentley.. 05/18/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!56GxopRO1awVzJZcRXpKumsfysBgVjogDZokTPcEnMsgqIIABs-g5ZcnlXcAZ3ml_7z_ZpfPi= KP5sO9XfUo1MTKLM6w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

    LAT...LON 39439832 39399739 38999679 38659640 38279641 38099694
    38369802 38889888 39099847 39439832=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 17, 2023 17:52:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 171752
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171752=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-171945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0808
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1252 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023

    Areas affected...Central High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 171752Z - 171945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a sporadic
    severe wind/hail threat through the afternoon hours. Strong/severe
    thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to
    preclude watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past 60 minutes, GOES visible imagery has show
    signs of diurnal destabilization across the central High Plains in
    the form of deepening/expanding cumulus fields. In addition to this,
    KCYS and KUDX imagery has shown more robust convection initiating
    along residual outflow boundaries and along a diffuse surface
    trough. RAP mesoanalyses also show this destabilizing trend,
    especially across western NE into far southwest SD downstream of the
    developing convection where dewpoints are falling through the mid
    50s and cumulus buildup is noted. The expectation is for these
    storms to continue to mature/intensify as buoyancy improves further.
    Deep-layer flow over the region remains fairly modest (20-25 knot
    flow in the 6 to 8 km layer), but may be adequate for some storm
    organization with an attendant severe hail threat. Given steep
    low-level lapse rates (approaching 9 C/km), strong to severe
    downburst winds are possible. A robust wind threat may emerge if
    adequate clustering/cold pool consolidation can occur along the
    surface trough, but confidence in this scenario remains limited and
    precludes the need for watch issuance.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 05/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6P2A9mzQkI0IBMvAN4K88Yp0_6TiRkf6u_mr9VQ7L2GgckvoJM3djylUUpOMzKjjZHqQjoUxr= oqHEpca8rSG8dZ8EL0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 40660462 41120490 42090425 43420384 44040346 44090300
    43790224 43300011 42520012 41650026 40720078 40330162
    40140238 40070306 40000356 40160400 40660462=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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