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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0806

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 18, 2022 01:07:19
    ACUS11 KWNS 180107
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180106=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-180230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0806
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0806 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

    Areas affected...Central and Eastern Kansas into West-central
    Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 180106Z - 180230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop eastward across
    parts of central and eastern Kansas into west-central Missouri over
    the next few hours. The threats for wind damage, isolated large hail
    and possibly a tornado are expected to increase as storms expand in
    coverage. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed to the
    southeast of severe thunderstorm watch 236.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Hastings,
    Nebraska at 0105Z shows a line of strong to severe thunderstorms
    over northwest and north-central Kansas, with a second small cluster
    of storms over northeast Kansas. Over the next few hours, these two
    areas are forecast to congeal into a linear MCS, and move
    southeastward across central and eastern Kansas into western
    Missouri this evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to
    mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for severe storm development
    as the line continues to organize. Wind damage and isolated large
    hail will be possible along the more intense parts of the line. A
    tornado threat may also develop with rotating cells embedded in the
    line. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed to the southeast
    of WW 236 over the next hour or so.

    ..Broyles/Smith.. 05/18/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6vA9087PUG0_9oosktKxYqlwug_K7mYAXUvSRlzmdGmLZ7hGgKi4E1ugXMwgvX5dOov0SKjTm= f0fEd9ED9OtSIlUETQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 39739611 39769488 39319396 38849380 38489408 38249485
    37719691 37349815 37239901 37429945 38189935 38929874
    39469737 39739611=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 17, 2023 00:36:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 170036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 170035=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-170200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0806
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0735 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023

    Areas affected...South-central Virginia and north-central North
    Carolina

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226...

    Valid 170035Z - 170200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe-wind risk is increasing and likely peaking
    during the next couple hours across south-central VA into
    north-central NC this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KFCX shows an increasingly
    organized line segment with embedded bowing structures and
    rear-inflow jets tracking eastward at around 45-50 kt. VWP data
    shows 40-50 kt of unidirectional 0-6 km shear oriented perpendicular
    to the leading-edge gust front, which will support the maintenance
    of this line with eastward extent given a moist/unstable
    pre-convective airmass. Additional bowing segments trailing
    southwestward of the line (moving at similar speeds toward the east)
    will also pose a severe-wind risk with eastward extent. Current
    indications are that this activity will maintain intensity during
    the next couple hours, as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens
    along/ahead of the line. The primary concern will be severe gusts up
    to 70 mph, though an embedded mesovortex tornado or two is also
    possible as low-level hodographs expand in size/clockwise curvature
    amid line-normal low/deep-layer shear.

    ..Weinman.. 05/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Ea9VN7_qhSYzOQU_KT8gK0hDD3TaKpbWWO3b7bE2he2ckp22tCrjKo-ePFPldj0jq_8DBYnY= -vaTRpp7yElylmCqWU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

    LAT...LON 36577998 36857955 37137945 37267920 37247886 37147814
    37007780 36587767 36287784 36027809 35877854 35837959
    35928041 36068061 36268049 36577998=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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