ACUS11 KWNS 172118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172118=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-172245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0418 PM CDT Tue May 17 2022

Areas affected...Far northeast Kansas...southwest Iowa...and much of
northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 172118Z - 172245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage and intensity may occur over
the next 1 to 2 hours. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster which moved out of eastern
Nebraska has only produced marginally severe storms thus far.
However, the airmass ahead of this cluster continues to destabilize
with MLCAPE now around 1000 to 1500 J/kg and increasing.
Additionally, the cumulus field across northern Missouri has looked increasingly agitated, with signs convection may be starting to
develop on the Harrison/Mercer county line near the warm front.
Therefore, given the continued destabilization, and signs for
additional development ahead of this cluster, a severe thunderstorm
watch may be needed. Effective shear is around 45 to 50 knots per
OAX VWP which will support storm organization, including the
potential for supercells. Large hail and damaging winds should be
the primary threat.

..Bentley/Smith.. 05/17/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8BJvDx7BdxfDOxPGQJ_5bJceuAZlywYgfEvpLgka0NW1KWaJ3d4sEaXG9Wm7ywF9UOOrFg7Uu= uRQpwHIEs3Se5_KjSc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39069506 39139511 39379535 39729551 40039515 40509487
40859479 40739360 40099217 39489167 38969188 38629305
39069506=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 161834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161834=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-162030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023

Areas affected...Southwest VA...Northwest NC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161834Z - 162030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity may increase this
afternoon across southwest VA and northwest NC, and trends are being
monitored for potential watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The air mass across southwest VA and northwest NC
continues to destabilize amid temperatures warming into the upper
70s amid dewpoints in the mid 60s. Multicellular thunderstorm
activity upstream across far southwest VA has modestly strengthened
over the past hour, likely a result of increasing buoyancy and
continued ascent along the southern/eastern periphery of the
convectively augmented shortwave moving through the middle OH
Valley. Dewpoints are expected to remain in the mid 60s, despite
modest downsloping and boundary-layer mixing. As such, the airmass
will likely remain uncapped, with the remaining buoyancy and modest
ascent contributing to increasing thunderstorm coverage.=20

Even with some expectation for increasing thunderstorm coverage,
convective evolution is uncertain, and the primary severe threat may
remain associated with the main convective line farther west.
Consequently, when a watch will be needed is also somewhat
uncertain. Convective trends will be monitored closely for earlier
development and sufficient severe thunderstorms coverage to merit a
watch.

..Mosier/Leitman.. 05/16/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5FvJM2JPT7FW1N99rsaHpVwhjINNYBpBKCazeu1RuSiXO1MEo8KHWRmeCHvJ28I9zTILxuPrO= r5LEFZ4xaVFB-puNFA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 35637992 35708044 35788088 35868117 36008155 36138171
36458174 36858153 37188116 37378055 37357992 37237927
36947861 36647830 36027834 35677878 35637992=20


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