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ACUS11 KWNS 170038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170037=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-170230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232...233...

Valid 170037Z - 170230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 232, 233
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will become more concentrated across the
Texas Panhandle by 03z.

DISCUSSION...Weak mid-level short-wave trough has migrated into
eastern NM early this evening. Scattered convection continues to
develop ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains,
extending as far south as Gains County TX, just north of MAF. 20kt
850mb flow currently extends across the western TX Panhandle but is
expected to gradually increase across the TX South Plains after
sunset. As a result, convection may continue to grow upscale as it
encounters increasingly moist environment, aided by LLJ. This
activity should spread toward the eastern TX Panhandle by 05z.
Wind/hail remain possible.

..Darrow.. 05/17/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6UD1ka2sXsKGYRnFvZ0SmsbsR0Rkj79tRx8QXenaOavQFffaDA-F8UxaH3bFwBmcJCk76IAhY= T3uH3ayBqJiComd9kU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36090329 35690104 33530076 33190220 34270275 35010397
36090329=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 150056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150056=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023

Areas affected...South-central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224...

Valid 150056Z - 150300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of large hail and severe gusts continues across
the eastern portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 this evening.

DISCUSSION...Several supercell clusters are tracking southeastward
across the eastern portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 224 in
south-central Illinois this evening. These storms are maintaining
residence time in the zone of moderate surface-based instability
(1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and 30 kts of 0-6 km shear (per regional
VWP). Given the somewhat separated nature of these storms through
this corridor, large hail up to 1.5 inches remains possible, along
with locally damaging gusts with the more upscale-grown clusters
(aided by water-loading processes). While some of this activity
could extend southeastward into parts of western Kentucky, current
thinking is that the overall severe risk will become increasingly
isolated during the next couple of hours, and a downstream watch is
not expected at this time.

..Weinman.. 05/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_F1clClK3sM4ZFV5X7jmfMwjX4H5nGrrJ0gLcrpz7PGlGbocX1kKjmJKP3mC4aLn1QjSLhcde= 8m1L0S7gKL2-fh76dE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 37598843 38378902 38808950 39008987 39268983 39478953
39508922 39368882 38918826 38568793 38128778 37698784
37548811 37598843=20


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