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ACUS11 KWNS 162123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162123=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-162300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0790
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0423 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227...

Valid 162123Z - 162300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 227
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will persist into the evening.

DISCUSSION...A squall line with a history of damaging wind gusts
will continue to move east through the evening. The environment
ahead of this squall line remains at least weakly unstable with
MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg. In addition, the low-level jet has
strengthened to around 35 to 40 knots per area VWPs. This may allow
the threat to persist for at least a few more hours. This squall
line is expected to reach the eastern edge of watch 227 around an
hour from now. Therefore, a new severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed soon.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/16/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8hJS8EZzA4T3kfKNxQNvw4vJdihI6j69UxWY9bVnvDkR-xqBmJjNAWGjkIl-d0Jae2XSaFJtO= _WP5yIrBvODrP1OAFc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 41207326 41467364 41977362 42377356 42997360 43677371
44297365 44807379 45057390 45077381 45117169 44777127
44117107 43057101 42387111 41837134 41447272 41207326=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 132310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132309=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-140115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0790
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Sat May 13 2023

Areas affected...Southeast MO...Southern IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222...

Valid 132309Z - 140115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222
continues.

SUMMARY...Gusty winds remain possible with convection this evening.
However, new watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Weak low-level warm advection persists across the
Midwest into the lower OH Valley early this evening, coincident with
a surface front draped from central IN-central IL-central IA.
Scattered convection persists along this corridor but updraft
intensity has waned over the last few hours amidst neutral/weak
height rises aloft. While modest instability resides immediately
downstream across southern MO into southern IN, convective trends do
not favor organized severe persisting beyond watch expiration time.

..Darrow.. 05/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6i7fSSGh98pHvZ21YjfeJf7u6OdZcbmgjaVFqmi1c5XtPnbbUBWQ7jmscP0TYWHiA7eaj1JIg= GpzxGDVfS01auoAHZg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38429085 39228804 38388743 37319084 38429085=20


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