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ACUS11 KWNS 090659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090658=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-090900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Wed Mar 09 2022

Areas affected...Far Southern AL...Western/Central FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 090658Z - 090900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes are possible across southern AL and the western/central FL
Panhandle this morning. Resulting severe threat merits the issuance
of a Tornado Watch.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low very near MOB,
with a warm front extending east-northeastward from the low across south-central/southeastern AL into southwest GA. Thermodynamic
environment south of this front is characterized by low 70s
temperatures, upper 60s dewpoints, and MLCAPE around 500 to 1000
J/kg. Moderate to strong low-level southwesterly flow exists atop
southerly surface winds, contributing to strong low-level veering
with height. Recent KMOB VAD sampled over 40 kt of 0-1 km shear and
over 275 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity.=20

This type of environment supports supercells capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes, as evidenced by the supercell
near MOB which briefly had a TDS. Expectation is for the cell near
MOB and those to its south to continue moving east-northeast into
the more unstable air mass described above. The resultant threat for
supercells and tornadoes merits the issuance of a Tornado Watch
across southern AL and the western/central FL Panhandle.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/09/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rmhAhKvrSfT-uzrFZHWqe0YB4DYVClGKJVgdwglftA9ItLFGJ5aq1ooIcaaSKOFKKUUCys_K$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30688844 31098772 31358666 31268565 30688552 30158603
29798729 29708840 30688844=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 021854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021853=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-022000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...far Northeastern Oklahoma...southeastern
Kansas...southern Missouri...and northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021853Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail risk will continue over the next
couple of hours. Watch issuance unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of elevated thunderstorms continues to
move northeastward across portions of far northeastern Oklahoma and
northern Arkansas into far southeastern Kansas and southern
Missouri. A few cells have posed a brief severe hail risk. Storms
are generally located along a gradient of MUCAPE around 500-1000
J/kg. Objective analysis shows instability slowly increasing to the
north in the last hour. Sounding analysis from RAP forecast
soundings across northeastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas reveal
a stable ground layer with instability aloft largely located above
850 mb. VAD profiles from INX and SGX show favorable deep layer
shear around 70 kts. Given the shear and thermodynamic profiles,
these storms will likely remain elevated, supporting a risk of
severe hail up to 1-1.5 inch before moving into a cooler and drier
air mass to the north. As such, watch issuance is unlikely needed.

..Thornton/Thompson.. 03/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8GUYmnlHNN_kSL6xm6ll5rkETxmQOD44axhb6Xum02kBpGmQMrm7cddlJQdRhLoo8_SLMp6kg= Z-uuzw7GiLSBtEhgyw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 36829619 37139596 37549512 37719445 37739400 37709334
37549277 37249188 37139160 36849139 36079162 35749205
35669253 36439391 36389498 36249582 36369626 36369626
36829619=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 141035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141035=20
ILZ000-141200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0227
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Parts of central IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39...40...

Valid 141035Z - 141200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 39, 40
continues.

SUMMARY...Localized strong/damaging gusts remain possible this
morning.

DISCUSSION...A small MCS is moving across western IL early this
morning, with recent reports of severe gusts in McDonough County. An
embedded mesovortex recently developed in Knox County, IL, in
relatively close proximity to an outflow boundary and also the
synoptic warm front. MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (greater with southern
extent) and strong deep-layer shear (as noted on the KILX VWP) will
continue to support organized convection through the early morning.
While the northern part of the MCS and related MCV will continue
moving into a relatively cool/stable environment across northern IL,
some short-term threat for localized strong/damaging gusts may
persist, especially near/south of the warm front. Stronger updrafts
along the leading edge of the cold pool could also pose a transient
hail threat. Finally, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the
intersection of the leading outflow and warm front, though lingering
low-level stability may temper this threat to some extent.

..Dean.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!62CnonRj4HZRVM5EULv1siMf81nk2oSW3jlFJnk7bz6DgQAh9C7asD4-vb9Risp9_tnd8Iv4w= OF-V4QOGYJU0MRUA4Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 41028804 40448769 39878799 39538929 39539007 39559034
39699046 40039018 40288991 40698977 41028981 41058962
41028804=20


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