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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0781

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, May 16, 2022 15:23:37
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161523
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161522=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-161645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0781
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1022 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

    Areas affected...Central/Eastern PA...Central NY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225...226...

    Valid 161522Z - 161645Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225, 226
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across central
    PA. Isolated hail is also possible across south-central NY before
    the threat trends more towards damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Updrafts embedded within the line of showers and
    thunderstorms moving across central PA has shown sporadic
    intensification over the past hour or so, with only limited updraft maintenance/duration thus far. Heating downstream will help boost
    instability, with strong updrafts becoming more prevalent. Threat
    for damaging wind gusts across this region continues.

    A few stronger updrafts have also developed within a warm-air
    advection wing over north-central PA into south-central NY, to the
    north and east of the deeper cores over central PA. The environment
    supports a marginal hail risk with this initial development, with
    wind damage becoming the primary risk as storms become more
    surface-based with time.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 05/16/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5OeKGgCleiOg0W7Jyu7cC_xtjccK6yndHdqPaho67hxF8vk_NH0pQgJqm5q63-1wYqsKgWuXA= NRoFHKWBnydjtm-DJI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40937765 42007772 42467739 43187672 43127591 42687533
    42187506 41657506 41317558 40917605 40007719 40937765=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 13, 2023 00:32:32
    ACUS11 KWNS 130032
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130032=20
    TXZ000-130200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0781
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0732 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

    Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 130032Z - 130200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat will spread into portions of south-central
    TX later this evening. New severe thunderstorm watch appears
    warranted.

    DISCUSSION...A expanding corridor of deep convection has developed
    from northeast Mexico into the Edwards Plateau region early this
    evening. This activity is supported by a low-latitude short-wave
    trough ejecting slowly across northern Mexico toward this region.
    Latest radar imagery depicts an expansive precip shield trailing the
    leading squall line, which currently stretches from Crockett
    County-Kinney County-west of Laredo. Leading edge of this activity
    will propagate east of ww216, aided by 30-40kt 500mb southwesterly
    flow in association with the short wave. Ample buoyancy resides
    immediately downstream across south-central TX and this convection
    should easily advance east of current watch.

    ..Darrow/Thompson.. 05/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_IS9k7LfOc4Yeg-ZUxhlIJcWyDLlD-CkH4XiFuiqjnDecPR4SfEdt2naC_r4EP2wZmyFqKMQ2= -_cRmr3OHYcSG23FNs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 28880064 30330077 30239915 27629868 27399961 28880064=20


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