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ACUS11 KWNS 152324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152323=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...western middle TN...northeast MS...far northwest AL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222...

Valid 152323Z - 160030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts and
perhaps large hail may move east of severe thunderstorm watch #222
within the next 1-2 hours. A local extension in area to the
existing watch could be used to address any severe risk that may
develop east of the watch.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken squall line/cluster of
storms over western TN on the southern periphery of a mid-level
shortwave trough moving east-southeast across parts of the Midwest.=20 Temperatures early this evening are in the mid-upper 80s with
dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s. The Columbus, MS (KGWX) VAD shows
relatively weak northwesterlies which will act to continue a
southeast storm motion but limit the potential for storm
organization. It seems like the stronger storm east-northeast of
Memphis will not exit the eastern bound of the watch until after
700-730pm. Given the a gradual lessening in storm intensity
expected with diurnal heat loss, is seems only a localized risk for
strong to severe storms will include the areas up to 50-75 mi east
of severe thunderstorm watch #222.

..Smith/Hart.. 05/15/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4y_husL-jN2zbkZOrp_-aIOTClMRWs6lEZ8CoZV-XwjdnOdXkuSmQve3h8HiLvu2GWfrzX0LK= GfRNjXn4W-BYMC1J00$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 33988950 36218849 36318787 35898742 34278796 33868882
33988950=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 122243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122243=20
TXZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...Parts of west/southwest TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216...

Valid 122243Z - 130015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe storms will continue this evening,
with a threat of severe hail/wind. Some larger storm clusters may
form later tonight and spread eastward.

DISCUSSION...At 2230 UTC, scattered strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of southwest TX, along/east
of a dryline and in advance of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough
moving northeastward out of northern Mexico. Rich low-level moisture
and relatively steep lapse rates are supporting large buoyancy, with
MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg noted across the region. With weak
deep-layer flow/shear in place, a mixture of pulse and weak
multicells is expected to continue through the evening, with a
threat of at least isolated large hail and strong/severe outflow
gusts.=20

With time, conglomerating outflows may result in an
eastward-advancing cold pool and potentially a loosely organized
MCS, which would result in a continued strong/severe wind threat
into a larger part of central TX, though this may not occur until
relatively late in the evening.

..Dean.. 05/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5A7Eel6Vv9vIRAXSe2MpINdASgy2dpoAF3BMJRBi_DGl-G-NvH2ELNV4NE_-P-kFhtEHwI0j3= _YGEkH0_DHiBAIzbSk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30500364 33130051 33019902 30849949 29140023 28850109
28850281 28940329 29630365 30500364=20


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