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ACUS11 KWNS 151941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151941=20
ARZ000-152115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0771
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...Much of AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217...218...

Valid 151941Z - 152115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217, 218
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for hail and/or damaging wind gusts will continue
across AR. Trends are being monitored for possible downstream watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...A large cluster of thunderstorms persists across
northern AR. Southwestern portion of this cluster continues to move
southward, although some western component has been noted in recent
trends. Air mass in the vicinity and downstream of this portion of
the cluster is very unstable, with mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE
over 3000 J/kg. SRX VAD shows a weakly sheared air mass, with storm
motion dominant by forward-propagation. Expectation is for this
cluster to continue southward/south-southwestward for the next few
hours, with a continued risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts.
Trends with storm motion will be monitored closely and a downstream
watch maybe needed across west-central/southern AR if trends merit.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/15/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ZdyUbTSEiX26vurhrMe6fwzsRAlL1ssdZx6wDQt6mG8YCHqd58pC-selB0KcXqFQDmoNl84m= MH0DCr2VYDOJye_8KE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 35949427 35849302 34949210 34059173 33669195 33639319
34259420 35029444 35949427=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 120608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120607=20
OKZ000-120800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0771
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 214...

Valid 120607Z - 120800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 214 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat should continue for a couple
more hours across parts of southeastern Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...A small convective cluster is ongoing across parts of
southeastern OK early this morning. This cluster is being aided by a
30-35 kt southerly low-level jet. Some evidence of a rear-inflow jet
can be seen from the velocity data from KTLX/KSRX. Indeed, a recent
measured gust to 55 kt was recorded at KMLC (McAlester OK). With a
moderately unstable airmass is place downstream and sufficient shear
to support updraft organization, this should support an isolated
threat for mainly severe/damaging winds as thunderstorms spread
slowly eastward over the next couple of hours. With sufficient
low-level shear also in place, an embedded tornado may also occur.
While small extensions in area for Tornado Watch 214 are possible,
additional watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Gleason.. 05/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!52paKoNdu3g14y_osbqhXI6lMqWYExZM3vzVkZtanVbtW4md-YRvSLt9_8WQfcmyTCgQ8TrMc= O3YHtXzxSbqf3X4ZFs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 34349662 34869606 35159564 35389482 34899453 34539507
34219549 34189622 34349662=20


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