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ACUS11 KWNS 151618
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151618=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-151745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0766
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...Southern MO...Northern/Central AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217...

Valid 151618Z - 151745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 217
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across southern
MO, with the the threat expected to persist into northern and
central AR. A downstream watch will be needed to cover this
additional severe potential.

DISCUSSION...Central portion of the ongoing convective line
(currently near Springfield MO) continues to move southeastward,
with recent storm motion estimated around 45 kt. Updrafts remain
strong within this portion of the line, but low-level wind
signatures have diminished over the past hour or so. Even so,
damaging wind gusts remain possible within the line, particularly as
the air mass continues to destabilize.=20

The downstream air mass has destabilized with temperatures now in
the 80 and dewpoints in the low 70s. Recent mesoanalysis estimates
MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg across northern and central AR with
little convective inhibition, if any, remaining (as evidenced by the
ongoing storms near RUE). General expectation is for the ongoing
line to continue southeastward into this more unstable environment.
Some intensification of this line is possible, with damaging wind
gusts as the primary severe threat. Given this continued severe
risk, a downstream watch will likely be needed for portions of
northern and central AR.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/15/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8KXsPfeQMdlrE_7bgxaur28VzFHrQcChfUN3QF5X4rPuCwedFADE4VCe9jhPvQYg8-0b2BbrR= H9ApkBg6CO1ryj7slk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 36859454 37489363 37069189 35629131 35039271 35509410
36859454=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 112049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112049=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-112215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0766
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Areas affected...western Kansas into western Nebraska

Concerning...Tornado Watch 211...

Valid 112049Z - 112215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 211 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk persists over western Kansas, and may
increase into western Nebraska with time. An additional watch could
eventually be needed north of the existing watch 211, depending on
storm trends.

DISCUSSION...Bands of thunderstorms persist north of the surface low
and ahead of midlevel cooling with the upper trough. Strong boundary
layer easterlies continue to push moisture westward across northwest
KS and into western NE toward an inverted surface trough. The
easterly winds are also helping warm advection in general, as
heating continues upstream from northern KS into central NE.
Low-level shear is sufficient for a weak/brief tornado threat with
0-1 values around 100 m2/s2. As such, given the time of day, an
additional watch could be needed into more of NE and perhaps
north-central KS as the storms develop in that direction. In
addition, a plume of steep lapse rates pushing into southwest KS
ahead of the vort max could lead to locally severe gusts with
activity developing over southeast CO currently.

..Jewell.. 05/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9uDc2LaFDt5KKmBoAPvOk1G0JDb7K0H-k9qaAC5PHCPasJyAUDZmpebyKiAGr9k5ciqY8vaBU= F-Qx7oOqt9DaYLEbHM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 37489984 38120045 38940113 39630181 40110207 40640240
42030260 42630260 42720222 42540198 41680123 41080073
40340003 39099920 38369891 37559923 37489984=20


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