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ACUS11 KWNS 160227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160226=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-160430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...Southwest Tennessee...Northern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 131...

Valid 160226Z - 160430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 131 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to continue late this evening as
storms move into the far eastern part of WW 131. An isolated tornado
threat, along with wind damage and large hail will be possible. Very
large hail will be possible as well. A new weather watch will likely
be needed to contain the severe weather threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Memphis
shows scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of
northeastern Arkansas, with a couple intense storms ongoing. A
well-developed supercell with a history of very large hail is
approaching the Mississippi River in far northeast Arkansas. This
storm is in a strongly sheared environment. The latest WSR-88D VWP
from Memphis has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots with 0-3 km storm
relative helicity around 600 m2/s2. In addition, the RAP has 700-500
mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km. This will support supercells with
large hail. Hail of greater than 2 inches in diameter, along with a
tornado and wind-damage threat will also be possible with the most
intense of the storms. As the storms approach the southeastern edge
of WW 131 over the next hour or so, a new WW will likely be
required.

..Broyles.. 04/16/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sfXNdbdcIEgZwhdNxaEzIoVozRZgFyOzR9Gg6JGgOthtVuqBH8GEW8Px9-XyOOW7hoQ0wxZ8$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 34749114 34179026 34128959 34328876 34838836 35318823
35638830 35798875 35779003 35619063 35469112 35309135
34979138 34749114=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 101940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101940=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-102215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western into north central Oklahoma and
adjacent portions of southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101940Z - 102215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms posing at least some risk for severe
weather appear possible by 5-7 PM CDT. It is not clear that a
severe weather watch is needed, but trends will continue to be
monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for ascent is rather weak, but a
lingering confluence zone near the interface of a corridor of
stronger surface heating and modest boundary-layer moisture is
becoming the focus for destabilization across parts of northwestern
Oklahoma through eastern Kansas. While this is likely to remain
characterized by mixed-layer CAPE less than 1000 J/kg, low-level
lapse rates are becoming steep beneath seasonably cool mid-level air
around -18C.

Scattered convection is beginning to from and deepen in response to
the continuing surface heating, and model output generally indicates
that this will lead to the development of a few thunderstorms by
23-00Z. It appears that stronger storms may gradually focus where
deep-layer shear and mid-level forcing for ascent become maximized,
near the left exit region of a digging northerly mid-level jet
streak (around 40 kt at 500 mb), roughly near and south-southwest of
the Enid vicinity. Given the environment, some of these storms may
pose a risk for (mostly) sub-severe to marginally severe hail and
wind gusts.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 04/10/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-1V-Fn1zRYUlsV0h_hSCk8eNDlOOvsiLJ8WUbcR6c_Ub9c5HKfw6OyG5TPePi_Y45DdAsvCMT= V4TwNZ5RW6cpbmEW0k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37239727 36819682 35729780 35319861 35909888 37239727=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 202300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202300=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-210030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NC and northeastern SC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131...

Valid 202300Z - 210030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk will continue across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 131 for the next few hours. Primary concerns are isolated
large hail and locally damaging gusts.

DISCUSSION...Two main corridors of severe storms persist across
portions of southeastern NC and northeastern SC this evening. Closer
to the southeastern NC coast, recent storm mergers have yielded a
consolidated supercell which is generally anchored to an
outflow-modified sea breeze boundary. This storm will likely
continue drifting slowly south-southeastward to the coast, with a
risk of locally damaging gusts (50-65 mph) and isolated large hail
(up to 1.5 inches in diameter). Slightly farther northwest (over the northeastern SC/southeastern NC border), splitting storms with
occasional supercell structure are ongoing amid a long/straight
hodograph environment and moderate surface-based instability. These
storms will continue to pose a risk of isolated large hail as well,
in addition to severe gusts given a steep low-level lapse rate plume
extending toward the inflow of this activity. The severe threat will
generally persist until storms move off the coast in the next 3-4
hours.

..Weinman.. 04/20/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_uZf8Js5x2rbH67sb5NEVYyBauAOQ2k-cCcBavqNhhuRERlAugUd7w_q2PH5ht99LtQn5Hthb= IJsByMiTuyXNIRpaAQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

LAT...LON 33557845 33697931 33998009 34318045 34568046 34938005
35077928 35027839 34737755 34347724 33997752 33557845=20


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