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ACUS01 KWNS 051309
SWODY1
SPC AC 051307

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CST Sat Mar 05 2022

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING/TYPO

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight
across the lower Missouri Valley into southern portions of the Great
Lakes region. This may include the risk for large hail and a few
tornadoes across parts of western into central Iowa and northern
Missouri, with damaging winds also possible elsewhere across the
region.

...Midwest/Lower Missouri Valley to Great Lakes...
A lead shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level speed max (70+
kt at 500 mb) centered over the south-central High Plains early this
morning will continue quickly northeastward and reach the Great
Lakes vicinity tonight. Modest-caliber early season moisture will
quickly spread north-northeastward across the Midwest today in
association with a cyclone-preceding warm front, with a ribbon of
somewhat higher low-level moisture content (middle 50s F surface
dewpoints) developing immediately ahead of the surface cyclone,
generally as far north as far eastern Nebraska and roughly the I-80
corridor of Iowa.

In the wake of early day storms and residual cloud cover,
near-surface-based thunderstorm development is expected to occur as
early as late morning/midday, initially across eastern Nebraska and
far western Iowa including the general Omaha vicinity. Supercellular development can be expected, along with a gradual southward
expansion of storms along the cold front across southern
Iowa/northern Missouri through late afternoon. A mixed convective
mode should evolve over time, with fast east/northeastward-moving
semi-broken bands and embedded supercells capable of damaging winds
and a few tornadoes through the afternoon into evening.

Even while surface-based buoyancy will tend to nocturnally diminish
after sunset, particularly given modest early season moisture, the
potential for damaging winds and a tornado or two (likely
QLCS-related) will continue through much of the evening, if not into
the early overnight. This will be supported by a continued
strengthening of deep-layer winds (accentuated by 700 mb winds
reaching 90+ kt) and deepening phase of the cyclone. At least a few
severe storms capable of wind damage will probably reach southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois late this evening/overnight, and
potentially as far east-northeast as Lower Michigan and far northern
Indiana.

..Guyer/Dean.. 03/05/2022

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 230105
SWODY1
SPC AC 230103

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

CORRECTED WIND GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing tornadoes, wind
damage and isolated large hail this evening across parts of the
central Gulf Coast states.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough in the
southern Plains, with cyclonically-curved southwest mid-level flow
in the Southeast. A shortwave trough is located within this flow
across central and northwestern Alabama. At the surface, a moist
airmass is located from the Lower Mississippi Valley eastward across
the central Gulf Coast, where dewpoints are in the 60s and lower 70s
F. In this area, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/Kg in central
Alabama to around 2000 J/kg near Mobile. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing along the western edge of the stronger
instability across southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana.
More discrete storms are ongoing in southwestern Alabama.

In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is present
across the central Gulf Coast. The WSR-88D VWP at Mobile, Alabama
has 0-6km shear near 55 knots with 0-3 storm relative helicity
around 550 m2/s2. This environment should continue to be favorable
for supercells and tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat will be
near the axis of the low-level jet in southwest Alabama early this
evening, where a significant tornado will be possible. The stronger
supercells within a north-to-south band in southwestern Alabama will
also be capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail.

Further to the west, an isolated tornado threat will also exist
early this evening with supercells that persist within a line of
storms across southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The
severe threat will also continue further northeastward across
central and northern Alabama, but weak instability should keep the
severe threat more localized. Overall, the severe threat should
become more isolated late this evening as instability decreases
across the region. A lingering threat of damaging winds could
persist during the overnight across southeastern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2022

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 080520
SWODY1
SPC AC 080519

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Fri Apr 08 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...
A deep upper-low and broad trough centered over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley will likely support scattered showers and a few
low-topped thunderstorms beneath a mid-level cold pocket from the
Ohio valley eastward across the central Appalachians. As the upper
low slowly migrates eastward today, surface low pressure across
southern Canada and New England will shift eastward accordingly,
dragging the primary cold front offshore by mid morning. A few
showers and storms may linger across coastal New England early, but
thunder chances will quickly diminish as the front moves seaward by
midday. With offshore flow expected in the wake of the front,
thunderstorm chances are forecast to be minimal for the remainder of
the eastern CONUS.

A second trough is forecast to move inland across the Pacific
Northwest early this morning. Reaching the northern Rockies late,
broad ascent and orographic lifting may support isolated lightning
flashes from the WA/OR coasts to the northern Rockies. However,
given the limited available surface moisture and buoyancy across
much of the CONUS, severe thunderstorms are not expected through the
forecast period.

..Lyons/Kerr.. 04/08/2022

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 121313
SWODY1
SPC AC 121311

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes are expected late this afternoon and
tonight across a broad portion of the southern/central Plains into
the Mississippi Valley. Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

...Central Plains/Middle Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Portions of west-central/north-central Iowa have been upgraded to a
Categorical Moderate Risk, with a somewhat focused potential for
tornadoes along with large hail and damaging winds expected late
this afternoon and evening near the surface low and nearby triple
point/warm front vicinity.

Potentially intense thunderstorm development, including
surface-based convection and elevated storms to the north of the northward-shifting warm front, is expected by late afternoon across
eastern Nebraska/northwest Iowa/southeast Minnesota generally near
the surface low/triple point. Moisture return across the warm sector
will be relatively modest (generally upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints), but will be sufficient for the development of moderate
buoyancy due to the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and
relatively cool temperatures aloft. Wind profiles will be quite
favorable for supercells near the triple point and in the vicinity
of the warm front, with very strong deep-layer shear and enlarged
low-level hodographs. Any discrete supercells that develop within
this regime will be capable of all severe hazards, including the
potential for strong tornadoes and very large hail.

Later this evening, more widespread/southward-spatially expanding
convection is expected along the eastward-surging cold front,
resulting in an increasing damaging wind threat this evening.
Damaging winds aside, a tornado threat will also exist with any
embedded circulations within the line of frontal convection given
the robust magnitude of low-level winds (upwards of 60-70 kt) in the
lowest 2-3 km AGL. Overall storm intensity will tend to diminish by
early in the overnight.

...Central/North Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A southern-stream/lead shortwave trough nearing the south
Texas/Mexico border vicinity this morning will continue
northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss through evening. Storms may
develop as soon as mid-afternoon near the dryline as it extends
across north/west-central Texas. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will
favor a few eastward-moving supercells and/or organized clusters
into late afternoon/early evening. Moderate-to-strong buoyancy and
steep mid-level lapse rates will support a threat of very large hail
and severe wind gusts with the strongest cells/clusters. Any
supercells that can persist into the richer low-level moisture east
of the dryline may also pose some tornado threat.

An additional/somewhat separate corridor of potentially severe
storms are possible this afternoon and evening farther east across
far east Texas into Louisiana and southern Arkansas. While the
details are a bit unclear, strengthening deep-layer shear and
moderate buoyancy would be supportive of at least some hail/wind
potential, and low-level shear/helicity, enhanced by a diurnally
sustained branch of the low-level jet, may be sufficient for a
couple of tornadoes as well.

...Central/eastern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas...
A conditionally favorable supercell environment will exist late this
afternoon into evening along and ahead of the dryline that will
exist from central Kansas southward into west-central Oklahoma.
However, this region will be between the main mid-level trough and
surface low to the north, and the ejecting low-amplitude shortwave
trough to the south. Most convection-allowing models continue to
show very little signal for deep convective initiation in this
region. However, some global guidance such as multiple runs of the
ECMWF depict isolated development across central Oklahoma, and this
may be plausible given ample post-dryline heating/mixing and
confluence/modest convergence near the dryline. If/where storms
develop and sustain, localized intense/significant severe weather
may occur. Very large hail would be a possibility and a tornado risk
will likely exist as well, especially if any storms are sustained
through early/mid-evening as low-level hodographs further enlarge.

..Guyer/Smith.. 04/12/2022

$$


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ACUS01 KWNS 280138
SWODY1
SPC AC 280136

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE FOR NDFD GRIDS

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms associated with isolated wind damage will be
possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic this evening. Wind damage
will also be possible in parts of the northern Plains, where a few
gusts of over 65 knots will be possible.

...Mid-Atlantic...
The latest high-resolution radar from Sterling, Maryland shows a
cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms across northern Virginia.
The storms are located within a small pocket of moderate
instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
range. At mid-levels, a 50 to 60 knot speed max is located across
eastern Virginia. This feature is creating strong deep-layer shear
across much of the Mid-Atlantic. 0-6 km shear on the Sterling 00Z
sounding was 58 knots. This will continue to be favorable for severe
storms for a few more hours this evening. In addition, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet is analyzed just offshore from eastern Virginia.
As the cells along the leading edge of the storm cluster move into
the stronger instability over the next few hours, the strong
low-level shear may be enough for a marginal tornado threat
associated with isolated supercells. However, the greatest threat
would be for wind damage with line segments that can remain
organized.

...Northern Plains...
The latest high-resolution radar from Bismarck, South Dakota shows a
corridor of scattered thunderstorms across west-central and
northwest South Dakota. The cluster was located near an area of weak instability, with the RAP having MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg
range. The Rapid City 00Z sounding was nearly dry adiabatic to about
500 mb, with CAPE mostly concentrated above 500 mb. This makes the
storms in South Dakota very high-based. However, the steep lapse
rates and fast storm motions of 40 to 45 knots will continue to
support a wind-damage threat this evening. A few wind gusts greater
than 65 knots will be possible along the leading edge of the more
intense cells, or short line segments. The threat should persist for
a few more hours before the storms move eastward into a more stable
environment in northern and eastern South Dakota.

..Broyles.. 05/28/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040056
SWODY1
SPC AC 040055

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR ERRONEOUS MRGL LABEL

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across far south Florida tonight.
Otherwise, scattered large hail and strong wind gusts may accompany thunderstorm activity across the High Plains this evening.

...01z Update...

Extensive convection has developed over the southeastern Gulf Basin
ahead of developing tropical system located near 23.3N/85W. Wind
fields/shear should increase across south FL later tonight such that
a few supercells will likely evolve. Some risk for a few tornadoes
seems reasonable given the strengthening shear.

Several weak short-wave troughs are migrating across the Great Basin
into the central/southern Rockies region. Substantial convection
initiated off the higher terrain from southeast WY into eastern NM.
This activity is now propagating toward western KS/west TX. Latest
model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen in several areas from
far west TX, through western KS into south-central NE. This should
contribute to longer-lived clusters that will likely continue to
propagate southeast through late evening into the early morning
hours. Hail/wind remain possible with this convection as it spreads
across the central/southern High Plains.

..Darrow.. 06/04/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091336
SWODY1
SPC AC 091335

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0835 AM CDT Thu Jun 09 2022

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ISSUE

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and potentially
intense damaging gusts will be possible this afternoon into tonight
across portions of the central and southern Plains.

...NE/KS/MO/OK...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper trough and associated mid
level speed max rotating across parts of MT/WY. This feature will
track eastward into NE this afternoon, where dewpoints near 60F will
yield a corridor of MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg. Mid-level capping should
limit strong convection until late afternoon, when at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected across parts of
western/southern NE and northern KS. Large hail will likely be the
main threat from the initial storms. This activity will build
southward down the instability gradient over KS through the evening
and into northeast OK overnight while growing upscale, with the
potential for one or more bowing complexes capable of damaging
winds. Portions of this area may need an upgrade to ENH in later
outlooks as the corridor of greatest risk becomes more apparent.

...CO/NM/TX/OK...
Scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form
over/along the mountains of southeastern CO and northeast WY. This
is beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwesterly flow
aloft. Overnight CAM solutions suggest that this activity will
slowly intensify and organize through the early evening as it
spreads into the TX Panhandle, with an increasing risk of damaging
winds and hail. Given the reservoir of rich low-level moisture and
strong CAPE that will be present over OK, it is likely that these
storms will persist through the night and track east-southeastward
across portions of OK and north TX. Mid-level winds are only
marginally strong, lessening the confidence of a long-lived severe
event. However, the potential exists for an upgrade to ENH for this
MCS as well.

...Gulf Coast into Southeast States...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along a
cold front from LA into the Carolinas. Weak winds aloft will limit
convective organization, but a few cells in this area will be
capable of locally damaging wind gusts during the late afternoon and
early evening.

..Hart.. 06/09/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111331
SWODY1
SPC AC 111330

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0830 AM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES...

CORRECTED HAIL PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
A few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop from
the northern Rockies into the middle and lower Missouri Valley
Saturday into Saturday night. Damaging winds and hail will be most
likely. An isolated tornado is possible over the middle Missouri
Valley and vicinity.

...IA/NE/MO/KS...
A broad upper ridge is centered over the four-corners region today,
with the belt of stronger westerlies extending from the northern
Rockies into the upper Midwest. A cold front currently over the
Dakotas will sag southeastward into eastern NE and northern IA by mid-afternoon, where a very warm and humid air mass will be present.
Afternoon MLCAPE values over 2500 J/kg are expected, resulting in
scattered thunderstorm development along/ahead of the front.
Activity will track southward into western MO and eastern KS during
the evening before weakening after dark. Initial storms over NE/IA
will likely be supercellular with concerns for very large hail and
perhaps a tornado or two. As the storms track southward, upscale
organization into a bowing MCS is expected with an increasing risk
of wind damage.

...MT/SD...
Strong westerly flow aloft will overlay the northern Plains today,
while a weak cold front sags southward across MT. Pockets of
daytime heating will lead to afternoon temperatures well into the
80s from southern MT into SD, with dewpoints in the upper 40s and
50s. Model guidance is in agreement that scattered thunderstorms
will form over the mountains of western MT and develop/move eastward
along the front during the afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings
suggest only marginal CAPE will develop, but given the strong winds
aloft and considerable vertical shear, a few supercell storms are
expected capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. These
storms may be rather isolated, but may persist much of the evening
and track quickly eastward into western/central SD.

..Hart.. 06/11/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121716
SWODY1
SPC AC 121715

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern and
central High Plains late this afternoon into tonight, with large
hail and damaging winds the main threats. Isolated severe storms may
also be noted across the lower Ohio Valley and parts of the southern
middle Atlantic.

...Northern/central Plains to Upper Midwest...
Regional upper-air analysis reflects an axis of moderate low-level
moisture extending west/northwestward across the north-central High
Plains this morning. This coincides with a belt of strong mid/high
winds that precede an amplifying trough over the Pacific Northwest,
with the aforementioned stronger winds extending over the northern
Rockies east-northeastward into the Dakotas/Minnesota.

Influenced by increasing larger-scale forcing for ascent and
orographic lift in vicinity of mountains/higher terrain, increasing thunderstorm development is likely by mid-afternoon across northern Wyoming/southern Montana, and a bit later toward the Black Hills
vicinity and southward along the lee trough/boundary into western Nebraska/northeast Colorado. Initial supercells capable of large
hail can be expected, along with some tornado risk and a higher
probability of very large hail particularly across northeast
Wyoming/far southeast Montana into western South Dakota.

Confidence has increased that a higher probability corridor of
severe storms including upscale growth into one or more MCSs should
evolve this evening across western/central South Dakota as well as
western Nebraska. An Enhanced Risk has been added to these areas.

...Missouri/Kentucky and southern Illinois/Indiana...
Complex short-term scenario across the region with multiple residual
influences (MCV etc.) from last night's middle Missouri Valley MCS.
A consequential reservoir of moisture exists across the region per
12z upper-air 850 mb analysis, extending from northern/eastern
Kansas into Missouri and southern portions of Illinois/Indiana into
northern Kentucky. This will contribute to a very unstable air mass
with upwards of 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, a major complicating
factor, in terms of uncertainty, is expectations for steady
mid-level warming via the eastward-advecting elevated mixed layer.
12z Topeka, KS observed sounding featured a 15.2 C 700 mb
temperature, while Springfield, MO was 13.6 C. Short-term model
guidance varies considerable in this modest forcing/prevalent
mid-level warmth scenario.

However, storm persistence/development through this afternoon will
likely regionally favor the cooler side of this notable mid-level
thermal gradient, with more probable storms across downstate
portions of Illinois/Indiana into Kentucky. It is plausible that a
severe risk, at least on an isolated basis, impacts at least parts
of the region through the afternoon into evening, with potential
late-night redevelopment on the eastern edge of the cap. Damaging
winds and large hail will be possible in what could be a
multi-round-related storm risk for parts of the region.

...Virginia/North Carolina...
A cluster of strong/severe storms will continue to impact far
southeast Virginia vicinity through early afternoon. Otherwise, a
relatively moist and potentially unstable air mass is present to the
west of these early day storms. Forecast soundings suggest
sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization and perhaps
a supercell or two. Overall, locally damaging winds are the main
threat through the early evening.

..Guyer.. 06/12/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 122050
SWODY1
SPC AC 122048

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST TOWARD CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA VICINITY...

CORRECTED TO REMOVE SPURIOUS POINT IN TORNADO GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms across the northern and central High
Plains late this afternoon into tonight will be capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds. Isolated severe storms also remain
possible across the lower Ohio Valley and parts of the southern
middle Atlantic.

...Discussion...
Overall/prior forecast reasoning -- and associated risk areas --
continue to appear to adequately reflect severe-weather potential
this afternoon and tonight. The primary change in this update is to
expand the SLGT risk/15% wind area across the northern Plains area southeastward, to include the remainder of southeastern South
Dakota, portions of northeastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa, and
the rest of southwestern Minnesota. Model guidance has become more
consistent in suggesting that despite capping currently indicated
across this area, that an evolving/southwesterly low-level jet
nosing into the Mid-Missouri Valley will sustain convection across
this region overnight.

..Goss.. 06/12/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022/

...Northern/central Plains to Upper Midwest...
Regional upper-air analysis reflects an axis of moderate low-level
moisture extending west/northwestward across the north-central High
Plains this morning. This coincides with a belt of strong mid/high
winds that precede an amplifying trough over the Pacific Northwest,
with the aforementioned stronger winds extending over the northern
Rockies east-northeastward into the Dakotas/Minnesota.

Influenced by increasing larger-scale forcing for ascent and
orographic lift in vicinity of mountains/higher terrain, increasing thunderstorm development is likely by mid-afternoon across northern Wyoming/southern Montana, and a bit later toward the Black Hills
vicinity and southward along the lee trough/boundary into western Nebraska/northeast Colorado. Initial supercells capable of large
hail can be expected, along with some tornado risk and a higher
probability of very large hail particularly across northeast
Wyoming/far southeast Montana into western South Dakota.

Confidence has increased that a higher probability corridor of
severe storms including upscale growth into one or more MCSs should
evolve this evening across western/central South Dakota as well as
western Nebraska. An Enhanced Risk has been added to these areas.

...Missouri/Kentucky and southern Illinois/Indiana...
Complex short-term scenario across the region with multiple residual
influences (MCV etc.) from last night's middle Missouri Valley MCS.
A consequential reservoir of moisture exists across the region per
12z upper-air 850 mb analysis, extending from northern/eastern
Kansas into Missouri and southern portions of Illinois/Indiana into
northern Kentucky. This will contribute to a very unstable air mass
with upwards of 4000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, a major complicating
factor, in terms of uncertainty, is expectations for steady
mid-level warming via the eastward-advecting elevated mixed layer.
12z Topeka, KS observed sounding featured a 15.2 C 700 mb
temperature, while Springfield, MO was 13.6 C. Short-term model
guidance varies considerable in this modest forcing/prevalent
mid-level warmth scenario.

However, storm persistence/development through this afternoon will
likely regionally favor the cooler side of this notable mid-level
thermal gradient, with more probable storms across downstate
portions of Illinois/Indiana into Kentucky. It is plausible that a
severe risk, at least on an isolated basis, impacts at least parts
of the region through the afternoon into evening, with potential
late-night redevelopment on the eastern edge of the cap. Damaging
winds and large hail will be possible in what could be a
multi-round-related storm risk for parts of the region.

...Virginia/North Carolina...
A cluster of strong/severe storms will continue to impact far
southeast Virginia vicinity through early afternoon. Otherwise, a
relatively moist and potentially unstable air mass is present to the
west of these early day storms. Forecast soundings suggest
sufficient deep-layer shear for convective organization and perhaps
a supercell or two. Overall, locally damaging winds are the main
threat through the early evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141323
SWODY1
SPC AC 141322

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0822 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC STATES....

CORRECTED FOR NDFD/WEB GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible within the northern Red River Valley vicinity, portions of
the Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Mid-Missouri Valley.

...ND/MN...
A long-lived cluster of intense thunderstorms is tracking
northeastward across eastern ND. These storms are expected to
persist and move into Saskatchewan by late morning. Locally
damaging wind gusts and hail will remain possible in these areas.
Please refer to WW 366 and MCD 1162 for further details.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Multiple severe MCSs from last night have diminished, with the
remnant light precipitation and MCVs noted over WV/western
VA/western NC. This activity will track into a very moist and
potentially unstable air mass from SC into MD, where at least
isolated thunderstorm development is expected. Any storms that can
become robust will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
However, model guidance does not provide much confidence in the
details of the scenario this afternoon.

...NE/IA/MN...
A cold front is sagging southeastward across parts of the central
Dakotas. This boundary is expected to stall over NE/IA, providing a
focus for late afternoon thunderstorm development. Initial activity
will likely be supercellular, but will move northward into the
cooler boundary layer air and be slightly elevated. Nevertheless,
large hail and locally damaging winds are possible. By mid-evening,
storms are expected to be rather widespread along the boundary, with
an increasing risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Dean.. 06/14/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151719
SWODY1
SPC AC 151717

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon into
tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes.
Several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging winds all
appear likely. Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

...Upper Midwest including Wisconsin/Iowa/Upper Michigan...
A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected this afternoon and
evening, particularly across eastern Iowa/far southeast Minnesota
into southern/central/eastern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. Aside
from large hail, this includes the potential for tornadoes, some of
which may be strong, along with a focused corridor of appreciable
damaging wind potential.

Related to a decayed overnight MCS, morning surface analysis shows a precipitation-reinforced semi-stalled boundary extending from
west/central Iowa into southwest/central Wisconsin, with some
persistent precipitation and a few stronger storms/differential
heating reinforcing this boundary. A notable upper trough over the
northern Plains will influence the region particularly later today
into tonight with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent and
strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds. Modest surface
cyclogenesis is expected along the southwest/northeast-oriented
boundary, with the gradually deepening wave expected to help
maintain an easterly component to the near-surface winds.

Surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F and steep mid-level lapse rates
will yield MLCAPE values of 3000+ J/kg especially from eastern Iowa
into much of central/southern Wisconsin. Strong deep-layer shear and
large hodographs will promote supercells capable of very large hail
and a few tornadoes during the first several hours of surface-based
initiation. A few of the tornadoes could be strong (EF2+), although
there are some mode-related uncertainties over time. Storms are
likely to trend upscale across interior parts (central/southern) of
Wisconsin with damaging wind potential appreciably increasing.
Storms will move into Lower Michigan and northern Illinois after
sunset, with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts
persisting, potentially as far east as Lower Michigan and northern
Indiana.

...Southeast/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States...
A hot and humid low-level air mass is in place today from the
central/northern Appalachians and interior Carolinas southwestward
into Mississippi/Alabama, with widespread temperatures in the 90s
and dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This will result in
MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates
throughout the region. The details of the timing and location of
convective development remains uncertain even in the short-term, but
multiple corridors of storms may unfold this afternoon into tonight
on the periphery of the southern Appalachians-centered upper-level
ridge. Sufficiently strong northeasterly flow aloft will aid in southwestward-propagating clusters capable of strong/damaging wind
gusts. A conditional severe risk will exist as far north as
west-central Pennsylvania and western New York today near the front.
Several models also imply the potential for late-night MCS
development centered across southern New York/west-central
Pennsylvania into Maryland.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 06/15/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190709
SWODY1
SPC AC 190708

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER GRIDS

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with damaging gusts and hail are possible
across portions of eastern Montana into western North Dakota Sunday
afternoon and evening. Additional isolated strong storms may occur
into western South Dakota, eastern Wyoming, western Nebraska and
northeast Colorado, as well as parts of the Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified/slow-moving upper pattern will persist across the
U.S., with a western trough advancing slowly across the
Intermountain region, and the eastern trough/low crossing New
England and the western Atlantic. In between, ridging over the
central U.S. will eventually become aligned roughly along the
Mississippi valley region.

At the surface, a weakening front will shift southward across
Florida and into the Gulf. A second cold front crossing the
Intermountain region will reach the northern High Plains region
during the afternoon.

...Northern and central High Plains vicinity...
As the upper trough continues its very gradual eastward progression,
cyclonic disturbances/vorticity maxima will continue progressing north-northeastward across the Rockies/High Plains region. As a
cold front likewise shifts slowly eastward, into eastern
Montana/Wyoming during the afternoon, heating/moderate
destabilization will fuel storm development. More widespread
development is expected across the southeastern Montana vicinity,
but more isolated initiation is expected as far south as
northeastern Colorado.

Given a belt of 40 to 50 kt south-southwesterly flow atop the
region, ample shear will support local intensification and attendant
severe potential. Along with locally damaging wind potential, risk
for very large hail is evident across eastern Montana and into
western North Dakota during the late afternoon and evening hours.

...Florida...
As a gradually weakening cold front sags southward across Florida,
diurnal heating/destabilization will support afternoon storm
development near the front, and along sea-breeze boundaries. With
modest mid-level northeasterly flow persisting across the area, a
few stronger storms may cluster together and move
southwestward/westward, and eventually offshore. Gusty/possibly
damaging winds could accompany the stronger storms, through early
evening.

..Goss.. 06/19/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301621
SWODY1
SPC AC 301619

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO UPPER MICHIGAN....

CORRECTED FOR MISSSPELLING IN SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
are possible today from parts of Kansas to Upper Michigan.

...Upper MI/WI/MN/IA...
Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from
central MN into northwest KS. A moderately moist and potentially
unstable air mass is present ahead of the front, although several
areas of clouds are limiting heating. Most CAM solutions indicate
scattered thunderstorms will form along/ahead of the front over
northern WI/Upper MI by mid-afternoon, in an environment of steep
lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. A few of these cells
will likely become intense, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and
hail for a few hours. There is considerable uncertainty how far
southwest the risk of strong storms will extend into MN/IA due to
weakening large scale forcing and weaker shear profiles.
Nevertheless, will maintain ongoing SLGT area.

...CO/KS/NE...
Ample mid-level moisture is present today over CO, along the
southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft. Strong heating
across the plains of eastern CO into western KS/NE will lead to hot
surface temperatures and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles.
Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to
affect this region later today. Present indications are that meager boundary-layer moisture will limit the intensity of updrafts or
precipitation cores, but dry-microbursts capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts will be a potential risk.

..Hart.. 06/30/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051652
SWODY1
SPC AC 051651

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRIDDED SIG HAIL

...SUMMARY...
A derecho with embedded significant severe wind gusts appears
probable from central to eastern South Dakota into southwest
Minnesota and northern Iowa into this evening.

...SD to IA and southern MN...
An intense cluster over central SD will likely persist
east-southeast across southeast SD. This should evolve into a forward-propagating linear MCS, expanding in latitudinal extent as
MLCIN further diminishes ahead of it. A large MLCAPE reservoir in
excess of 3000 J/kg across southern SD/MN and northern IA will
support potential for embedded significant severe wind gusts
exceeding 75 kts. While the majority of CAM guidance appears to be
egregiously poor (especially the HRW-FV3) with handling the
conceptual model for this event, the 12Z HRW-ARW and NSSL are in the
ballpark and suggest bowing linear segments will be maintained into
southern MN and northern IA before weakening this evening.

...Central/eastern MT to western ND...
Air mass recovery is underway across central to eastern MT in the
wake of the intense MCS over northwest SD. Residual 50s to low 60s
surface dew points in conjunction with pockets of pronounced
boundary-layer heating will yield MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. With
45-55 kt effective bulk shear, at least a few supercells are
expected from central to northeast MT during the late afternoon and
evening with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts as the
primary threats. Some of these cells should consolidate into a
cluster that spreads into western ND during the evening. Overall
intensity should decrease as activity impinges on the more stable
air mass left in the wake of the SD MCS.

...Mid-Atlantic to Midwest...
Poor mid-level lapse rates were evident in 12Z observed soundings
east of the Appalachians and this will be the main limiting factor
to more intense convective development. An MCV over western PA will
move east towards the NJ coast, with scattered thunderstorms near
and to its south. With 30-40 kt 700-mb westerlies impinging on the
region attendant to this MCV and the boundary-layer destabilizing
from south to north, an increase in strong gust potential should
occur from VA into the Lower DE Valley.

Arcing convective bands extend west of the lead MCV across WV and
OH/IN. This activity will likely persist through the rest of the
afternoon into this evening, building south-southwest in time
towards large buoyancy centered on the Lower OH Valley. Moderate
deep-layer shear will be further offset as this process occurs,
suggesting that loosely organized clusters will dominate with strong
to isolated severe gusts as the primary threat. Additional multicell
clusters will probably form northwest along the baroclinic zone near
the IA/IL/WI border area during the late afternoon into the evening.
These will similarly pose a threat for scattered damaging winds and
isolated severe hail, although the spatial extent of this threat
will likely be limited by this morning's stabilization in OH.

..Grams/Wendt.. 07/05/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141658
SWODY1
SPC AC 141656

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE

...SUMMARY...
The greatest conditional severe-weather concern is across parts of
the Dakotas and western Minnesota, where large hail and damaging
gusts are possible from late afternoon through tonight.

...Northern Plains this afternoon into tonight...
A midlevel shortwave trough over southern SK/MB is cresting the
midlevel ridge and will begin to move southeastward toward MN this
evening into tonight. Some elevated convection is ongoing as of
late morning over northeast ND, in a zone of weak warm advection
near a northwest-southeast oriented warm front. The potential for
diurnal, surface-based convection is in question along the front,
given that surface temperatures will need to warm to 90F or above to
remove convective inhibition across east/southeast ND, and clouds
are upstream from this area now. If storms manage to form, the
environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing
large hail/damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado. However, the more
probable scenario will be for slightly elevated storms/clusters to
form along the immediate cool side of the front tonight, and spread southeastward toward western MN, with an attendant threat for large hail/damaging winds.

...Southern MT vicinity this afternoon through tonight...
Daytime heating and local terrain circulations are expected to
initiate at least widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
across southern MT, in conjunction with subtle speed maxima within
the monsoonal moisture plume around the northern periphery of the
Four Corners high aloft. Westerly midlevel flow with relatively
long/straight hodographs, deep mixing/inverted-v profiles, and
modest buoyancy will support the potential for isolated severe
outflow gusts and marginally severe hail with small clusters and
high-based supercells from southern MT this afternoon into
northeastern WY this evening.

...TX area this afternoon/evening...
A cluster of storms is ongoing as of late morning across
northeast/east central TX, in association with a diffuse midlevel
trough and pocket of slightly cooler midlevel temperatures. Given
the organized nature of the cold pool with these storms and weak
northeasterly midlevel steering flow, the storms will likely persist
through the afternoon while spreading southwestward. The 12z FWD
sounding depicted a hybrid microburst environment, and strong
surface heating in advance of the storms will result in steepening
low-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg),
and DCAPE in the range of 1000-1500 J/kg. A few damaging/severe
outflow gusts will be the main threat this afternoon through late
evening.

...Southeast/FL this afternoon/evening...
A weak midlevel trough persists from GA to the Carolinas, and a
separate closed low is moving westward over the north coast of Cuba.
Somewhat enhanced midlevel west-southwesterly flow will support the
potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and isolated wind
damage from southeast GA to the Carolina coasts this afternoon. Sea
breeze convection is likely across the FL peninsula, with easterly
flow aloft favoring storm motion and subsequent outflow mergers
inland from the southeast FL coast to the west coast sea breeze.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing isolated damaging
downbursts, as well as marginally severe hail, given the strong
buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 3000 J/kg), DCAPE near 1000 J/kg, and
slightly cooler midlevel temperatures compared to previous days.

...Eastern MA to southeastern ME this afternoon...
Pockets of stronger surface heating, weak low-level convergence
along a cold front and local sea breeze boundaries could support
widely scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though
buoyancy will remain modest, somewhat enhanced midlevel flow and
effective bulk shear in excess of 30 kt could support isolated
strong/damaging gusts.

..Thompson.. 07/14/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250208
SWODY1
SPC AC 250206

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN OHIO...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may still increase in coverage and intensify across
and to the east of the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley
vicinity this evening, accompanied by a risk of potentially damaging
wind gusts.

...01Z Update...

...Near/east of the Lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley...
Pre-frontal thunderstorm development has been increasing across
southeastern Ontario, perhaps aided by strengthening forcing for
ascent downstream of a vigorous short wave impulse now beginning to
turn east of the upper Great Lakes region. As this perturbation
progresses eastward this evening, there still appears potential for
renewed vigorous thunderstorm development to the southeast of Lakes
Erie and Ontario, while ongoing storms across Ontario tend to spread
into and east of the St. Lawrence Valley. While the environment to
the lee of the lower Great Lakes has been substantially impacted by
prior convection, west-southwesterly low-level flow is forecast to
strengthen (in excess of 40 kt around 850 mb) in a belt across
northwestern Pennsylvania into northern New England this evening.
As this occurs, downward mixing of momentum in stronger storms may
be accompanied by occasional strong, potentially damaging surface
gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/25/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270713
SWODY1
SPC AC 270712

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE OZARKS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail
will be possible today from parts of the Ozarks eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the central High Plains.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place today across much
of the north-central U.S., with westerly mid-level flow located from
near the Mississippi River to the Atlantic coast. At the surface, a
very moist airmass will be in place from the Ozarks eastward to the Mid-Atlantic, where surface dewpoints will generally be in the upper
60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate
instability is expected to develop in areas that largely remain free
of morning convection. In response to increasing instability,
thunderstorm coverage will likely increase during the afternoon,
with the greatest convective coverage located near pre-existing
outflow boundaries and along corridors of enhanced low-level
convergence. As low-level lapse rates become steep during the mid to
late afternoon, an isolated wind-damage threat should develop.
However, the greatest deep-layer shear is forecast to remain well to
the north of an east-to-west axis of moderate instability,
suggesting that any severe threat should remain marginal.

...Central High Plains...
Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the central
and northern High Plains. At the surface, southeasterly flow across
the central High Plains will help maintain an axis of maximized
low-level moisture from Kansas northwestward into western Nebraska.
Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F.
This will contribute to moderate instability this afternoon, with
MLCAPE likely reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Due to
increasing instability, widely scattered thunderstorms will develop
in the higher terrain from eastern Wyoming southward into
north-central Colorado. Other more isolated storms will develop
farther east across the central High Plains. In addition to moderate instability, forecast soundings this afternoon in the central High
Plains have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, which is mostly
be due to speed shear in the mid-levels. This should be enough for
an isolated wind damage and hail threat. However, lapse rates at
mid-levels are forecast to remain relatively weak, suggesting any
severe threat should remain marginal.

..Broyles/Weinman.. 07/27/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280106
SWODY1
SPC AC 280105

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2022

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...

CORRECTED TO FLIP THUNDER LINE IN SOUTHEAST

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and isolated severe wind
gusts will be possible across parts of the central High Plains this
evening. A few strong wind gusts will also be possible from parts of
northern Arkansas and southeast Missouri eastward into the eastern
Kentucky.

...Central High Plains...
A well-developed Denver cyclone is evident on surface analysis.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the north of the meso-low
from far southeast Wyoming into north-central Colorado. These storms
are located on the western edge of a corridor of moderate
instability extending southeastward into central Kansas. The RAP
shows the strongest deep-layer shear over northeastern Colorado,
where instability is maximized at about 2500 J/kg, according to the
RAP. Storms that move southeastward into this instability max may
develop into supercells and be associated with isolated large hail.
The strongest of storms could have hail greater than 2 inches in
diameter. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible. The
severe threat is expected to continue southeastward into parts of
northeast Kansas later this evening as a convective cluster
gradually organizes. The severe threat should become marginal after
midnight as the boundary layer cools.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...
A quasi-stationary and ill-defined front is currently analyzed from
southern Missouri eastward into southern Kentucky. Thunderstorms are
ongoing near and ahead of the front along an east-to-west axis of
moderate instability. Although deep-layer shear is marginal for
severe storms near the instability axis, low-level lapse rates near
7.5 C/km should be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts over the
next hour or two.

..Broyles.. 07/28/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071620
SWODY1
SPC AC 071619

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
ARIZONA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IOWA...AND NORTHERN MAINE....

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL CREATION ERRORS

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across parts of
Arizona, the Upper Midwest and central High Plains, and northern
Maine this afternoon and evening.

...CO/KS...
Morning surface analysis shows a persistent boundary extending
across northwest KS into southeast CO. Dewpoints are in the 60s
along and north of the boundary across much of eastern CO, and it
appears that considerable daytime heating will occur over parts of
the area. This will result in afternoon MLCAPE values of around
1000 J/kg over much of eastern CO, with values up to 2500 J/kg over
western KS. Most 12z models agree that convection will form over
the foothills of central CO by mid afternoon and spread eastward
through early evening. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong to help
propagate the convection off the higher terrain, as well as organize
a few of the updrafts. Locally damaging wind gusts will be the main
threat, but a few storms in/near the foothills may produce hail.

Farther east in the plains, strong CAPE values and convergence along
the boundary may be sufficient for a landspout or two, along with gusty/damaging winds.

...IA...
Widespread overnight convection has left an outflow boundary
extending across central IA. It is unclear how much daytime heating
will occur in this area due to remnant clouds. However, the
potential will exist for isolated gusty/damaging wind gusts in the
stronger cells this afternoon and evening if sufficient low-level
lapse rates can develop.

...Northern ME...
A surface cold front is sagging southward across Quebec towards
northern ME. A moist and marginally unstable air mass will be
present this afternoon as storms initiate along the front. Forecast
soundings suggest sufficient deep-layer shear for an isolated
rotating storm or two, capable of damaging wind gusts or hail.

...AZ...
Strong heating is occurring today over most areas of
central/southern AZ. Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to
develop by mid-afternoon over the mountains of central/eastern AZ
and propagate southwestward. The mesoscale details of convective
coverage are unclear, but there will be potential for damaging wind
gusts if storms can persist as they track into south-central AZ this
evening.

..Hart/Weinman.. 08/07/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091649
SWODY1
SPC AC 091648

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 AM CDT Tue Aug 09 2022

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND IN PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST....

CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHIC ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will be possible
today from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, and in parts
of the Interior Pacific Northwest.

...Northeast States...
A surface cold front is analyzed this morning from central New
England into central PA. This front will sag southeastward today
into a hot/moist low-level environment with temperatures in the 90s
and dewpoints in the 70s. Forecast soundings show weak mid-level
lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft, which should be negative
factors for convective coverage and intensity. Nevertheless, at
least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form on the front later
today, with the strongest cells posing a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts.

...Central OR...
A large upper low is present off the coast of northern CA today,
with rather strong southerly deep-layer flow extending northward
across much of western and central OR. 12z model guidance continues
to show multiple waves of convection affecting the MRGL risk area
through this evening, where sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear
will be present for a few organized storms. The main threat appears
to be locally damaging wind gusts in pockets of stronger heating,
but an isolated supercell or two cannot be ruled out, with an
associated risk of gusty winds or hail.

..Hart/Weinman.. 08/09/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200059
SWODY1
SPC AC 200058

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN SOUTH TO NORTHERN
MISSOURI...

CORRECTED TO ADD LESS THAN 2% LABEL TO TORNADO GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
A couple of instances of large hail and/or strong gusts remain
possible through mid evening acros portions of the Middle
Mississippi Valley.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorms continue to swirl around an upper low drifting
southward across southwestern Minnesota toward northwestern Iowa
this evening. The strongest storms are ongoing over eastern Iowa
and into adjacent southwestern Wisconsin/northwestern Illinois, near
an axis of moderate instability (1500 to 2500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE)
just ahead of the surface cold front.

As the boundary layer continues to gradually cool diurnally, storm
intensity will gradually decrease. In the mean time however, a few
stronger storms will continue to pose risk for marginal hail and/or
strong wind gusts.

..Goss.. 08/20/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200534
SWODY1
SPC AC 200532

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS...

CORRECTED TO ADD MENTION OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR SOUTH
TEXAS LATE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms -- a few becoming severe locally --
are expected Saturday from the Ozarks vicinity east-northeastward
across the Midwest.

...Synopsis...
An upper low/trough is forecast to drift slowly across the Midwest
Saturday, while a short-wave trough shifts east-northeastward out of
northern Mexico, across New Mexico, and eventually into the southern
Plains. Otherwise, ridging will prevail across the remainder of the
West, and along the Atlantic Seaboard and western Atlantic.

At the surface, a very weak/diffuse pattern will prevail. A
tropical low now over the Bay of Campeche may move into the South
Texas vicinity late in the period.

...Ozarks vicinity into/across the Midwest...
As a short-wave trough moves into/across the Midwest, diurnal
heating of a moist low-level airmass will result in afternoon
destabilization, supporting development of scattered thunderstorms
across the Midwest/Ohio Valley, and trailing west-southwestward
across the Ozarks.

With a belt of slightly enhanced cyclonic/west-southwesterly flow
preceding the upper low/trough, modestly enhanced shear across the
area suggests that isolated strong storms may occasionally reach
severe levels, with locally strong wind gusts and some hail
possible. The risk will peak diurnally, diminishing gradually into
the evening with the loss of daytime heating.

...South Texas...
A tropical low over the Bay of Campeche is forecast to the National
Hurricane Center to move north-northwestward and evolve into a
tropical storm, before making landfall south of Brownsville TX
during the evening. Uncertainty precludes inclusion of any tornado probabilities at this time, but may require addition in later
outlooks as the evolution of the storm becomes more clear.

..Goss/Marsh.. 08/20/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 212015
SWODY1
SPC AC 212014

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms will continue into
late this afternoon, with the greatest relative threat across parts
of the Ohio Valley.

...20Z Update...
The northern portion of the Slight Risk across OH has been trimmed
in the wake of ongoing convection, though a threat for localized
damaging wind may continue with additional rounds of storms late
this afternoon into the early evening. The Marginal Risk has been
trimmed across parts of north TX, NC, west TN, and northern MS/AL,
based on observational trends and the progression of ongoing
convection and related boundaries. Portions of coastal NC have been
added to the Marginal Risk, where isolated damaging wind gusts will
be possible ahead of an eastward-moving line of storms. See MCD 1708
for more information on the threat across coastal NC.

Otherwise, no changes have been made, with a Slight Risk remaining
in place across parts of the Ohio Valley. See the previous
discussion below for more details.

..Dean.. 08/21/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2022/

...Synopsis...
Mid/upper ridging remains generally suppressed across the southern
mid- and subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific into parts of
the Southwest, and across the northern Mexican Plateau and Gulf
Basin into the Atlantic. Much of the U.S. will remain under the
influence of a weak branch of westerlies, well downstream of large,
deep troughing centered over the mid-latitude Pacific, roughly
between 140-170 W. This regime includes mean ridging across the
Pacific coast into the Rockies, with an embedded short wave trough
approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, broad mean
troughing prevails east of the Rockies, with the most substantive
embedded short wave troughing forecast to continue slowly digging east-southeast of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley toward the
Appalachians. Another weaker perturbation likely will very slowly
progress across the southern Great Plains.

Milder and, particularly, drier air has already infiltrated much of
the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest, and will gradually
overspread much of the Ohio Valley, while a similar environment
remains entrenched across much of New England. Seasonably high
moisture content will continue to gradually become increasingly
confined to parts of the Southwest, and Gulf into southern and mid
Atlantic Coast states, by the end of the period.

...East of the Rockies...
The lingering seasonably moist air, coupled with weak mid-level
inhibition and large-scale forcing for ascent, is already
contributing to considerable pre-frontal thunderstorm development
across parts of the southern Great Plains into the Ohio Valley,
lower Great Lakes region and Mid Atlantic. This will continue, with
a further increase in storm coverage with boundary-layer heating
through late afternoon.

While the remnants of elevated mixed-layer air might enhance
potential for localized downbursts across parts of north central and northeastern Texas by late afternoon, lower/mid tropospheric lapse
rates across most areas are generally weak. Deep-layer mean flow
and shear is also rather weak, but heavy precipitation loading and
downward mixing of 20-30 kt southwesterly to westerly flow in the
850-500 mb layer, to the south and east of the digging short wave
trough, might be enough to contribute to locally damaging downbursts
in stronger storms, mainly across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Southwest...
Boundary-layer heating and mixing are forecast to remain somewhat
modest for the time of year, with the stronger heating and deeper
mixing mostly confined to the lower Colorado Valley. However, this
may be sufficient, given the relatively moist conditions, to support
sizable CAPE by late this afternoon. Aided by 10-20 kt northerly
mid-level flow, if thunderstorms can cluster/consolidate
sufficiently along the Rim late this afternoon, there appears to be
potential for convection to gradually propagate off the higher
terrain (and particularly toward the Colorado Valley) accompanied by
a risk for strong surface gusts into this evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 122025
SWODY1
SPC AC 122023

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL ARIZONA...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and over portions of Arizona.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk across portions of the Mid Atlantic has been
shifted east to better align with a lee trough along the eastern
foothills of the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains. Ongoing
strong storms will continue to pose a low-end risk for primarily
damaging wind gusts, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief
tornado within the modestly unstable and sheared environment.
Additional storm development is possible this evening and overnight
as the surface cold front begins to surge eastward into DelMarVA and
southern New England.

The Marginal risk across the Southwest remains unchanged. A few
high-based storms capable of damaging outflow winds will remain
possible into this evening. Please see the prior outlook for
additional details and information.

..Lyons/Hart.. 09/12/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Mon Sep 12 2022/

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front, recently analyzed from the upper OH River
Valley into the lower MS River Valley, will continue to push east
into the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast Coast over the next
24 hours. Aloft, an upper trough has begun to slowly migrate east,
which will resulting in modest surface pressure falls along/ahead of
the front across the Mid-Atlantic region this evening. The eastward
progression of the wave and the slight deepening of the low will
result in increasing shear that may support organized convection as thunderstorms develop along and just ahead of the front. Across the
Southwest, an upper low will continue to meander off the coast of
southern California. A persistent influx of unseasonably high
moisture into AZ will support thunderstorm development off the
terrain of southern/southeast AZ.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Early morning fog/low stratus is quickly mixing out across VA/MD,
allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s from
the Carolinas into north-central MD. These temperatures are warmer
than expected by most guidance by 16 UTC, suggesting that
surface-based instability and low-level lapse rates may be
higher/steeper than indicated by morning model runs. Despite the
clearing skies, poor low and mid-level lapse rates sampled by 12 UTC
soundings will likely limit overall buoyancy values to near 1000
J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon. Combined with increasing deep-layer
shear, a few strong to severe storms are expected along the front. Semi-organized clusters and/or linear segments will pose a damaging
wind threat, and any discrete cells may acquire sufficient
organization to pose a hail and brief/weak tornado threat.

...Arizona...
Thunderstorm development off the Mogollon Rim and the
Chiricahua/Pinaleno mountains is expected by late afternoon amid a
persistent influx of unseasonably high low-level moisture (dewpoint
values in the upper 60s are near the 90th percentile for
mid-September). Despite modest flow aloft, ample daytime heating
will promote steep low-level lapse rates/deep boundary-layer mixing
favorable for a few strong to severe gusts as convection propagates
off the terrain.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290608
SWODY1
SPC AC 290607

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND NORTHERN UTAH...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDERLINE

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado will remain possible across parts of coastal
northeast Florida this morning, in association with Tropical Cyclone
Ian. The tornado risk will quickly diminish after noon as Ian moves
offshore. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible across
portions of northern Utah this afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Across the CONUS, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain centered
over the Plains states today as an upper low gradually weakens and
shifts eastward over the Northern Rockies. Under the influence of
weak troughing over the Northeast, TC Ian will gradually move
northeastward across eastern Florida into the western Atlantic by
early afternoon. Please see the latest NHC advisory for up to date
track and intensity info.

At the surface, a cold front will move through the northern Rockies
while strong high pressure remains in place across the eastern Great
Lakes. Dry offshore flow across much of the Southeast and Atlantic
coast will keep conditions stable behind the remnant front stalled
along the coast. Inland moisture return may develop late tonight
across the eastern Carolinas, though this remains tied to the speed
and track of Ian.

...Far northeastern Florida...
As Ian begins to accelerate offshore this morning, surface winds
will gradually veer to southwesterly and westerly with time. Dry
continental air across the lower Southeast will quickly move down
the Peninsula replacing the deep tropical airmass with more stable
conditions. A narrow sliver along the immediate northeastern/eastern
coast may still remain buoyant for a few hours after 12z this
morning. Large but gradually shrinking hodographs near the center of
Ian may support low-topped supercells capable of a brief tornado
before Ian's center moves offshore by noon.

...Coastal Carolinas...
As Ian emerges from Florida over the western Atlantic, some
redevelopment of convection along the outermost spiral bands will be
possible late tonight into early Friday. Strong wind fields will
support numerous embedded mesocyclones within these bands as they
re-develop offshore. It remains unclear if any bands will be able to
advance inland across far eastern North/South Carolina prior to 12z
Friday given the very dry and cool airmass inland behind the front.
While a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast,
confidence in richer boundary-layer moisture and subsequent
destabilization being advected inland by 12z Friday remains too low
to add tornado probabilities.

...Northern Utah...
Near the base of the slowly weakening upper low across portions of
northern Utah, cooling aloft and strong surface heating ahead of the
cold front should support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Advection of monsoon moisture from the southwest should
allow weak destabilization (500 J/kg of MLCAPE) to develop within
the well-mixed airmass through the diurnal cycle. While flow aloft
and resulting deep-level shear will be weak (less than 25 kt),
relatively steep low and mid-level lapse rates may support a few
stronger downdrafts capable of isolated severe wind gusts. Spatial
coverage of the severe risk is somewhat uncertain given weaker shear
and buoyancy, but hi-res guidance does show some potential for a
couple multi-cell clusters to develop in the vicinity of SLC. 5%
wind probabilities have been added to account for the isolated risk
of severe wind gusts with any stronger clusters that are able to
become established.

..Lyons/Darrow.. 09/29/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051637
SWODY1
SPC AC 051636

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Wed Oct 05 2022

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TSTM LINES

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the
southwestern U.S, the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, and in the
vicinity of southern New England. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

...Synopsis/Forecast...
Thunderstorms are expected today into tonight including across the
southern Rockies/west Texas in proximity to an upper low, in
addition to parts of the Midwest related to an
east/southeastward-moving shortwave trough from Iowa into northern
Illinois. While a couple of strong thunderstorms could occur this
afternoon in areas such as southeast New Mexico/far west Texas
and/or south-central Iowa, organized severe thunderstorms are
unlikely owing to modest buoyancy and relatively weak vertical
shear.

..Guyer/Thornton.. 10/05/2022

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011303
SWODY1
SPC AC 011301

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0701 AM CST Sun Jan 01 2023

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

CORRECTED FOR WIND LINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong-severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today over
parts of central/southern Arizona.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
In mid/upper levels, a pronounced synoptic-scale trough is evident
in moisture-channel imagery from the interior Northwest south-
southwestward across the central CA Coast to the Pacific west of
Baja. An embedded vorticity max and developing 500-mb low appears
over the Sierra west of BIH. This low will intensify by 00Z and
reach the LAS area, with trough northward over ID and southward down
the lower Colorado River Valley and past central Baja. By 12Z, the
low should reach southeastern UT, with trough northward to a col
over northwestern WY, and southward from the low across eastern AZ
and northwestern mainland MX.

An associated area of surface low pressure -- complicated by the
highly varied terrain over which it will cross -- should move
erratically from its initial position over the southern Sierra to south-central/east-central UT by 00Z. Meanwhile, a trailing Pacific
cold front crosses the lower CO River Valley and western/central AZ,
reaching southeastern UT and eastern AZ. By 12Z, the front should
reach the lower Pecos Valley, the TX South Plains, TX/OK Panhandles,
and southeastern CO, to a low over northwestern CO. Warm
frontogenesis -- already underway across parts of the Panhandle and
OK -- will continue and shift or relocate northward to the central
Plains and mid Mississippi Valley by 12Z tomorrow.

...Central/southern AZ...
Isolated severe gusts may accompany a strongly forced band of
convection (with embedded thunderstorms) this afternoon over the
outlook area.

Surface temperatures will remain cool, with diurnal heating strongly
muted by extensive cloud cover. Still, destabilizing prefrontal moisture/theta-e advection is expected, with dewpoints in the 40s to
50s F. Very near the front and convective band, such moisture will
underlie steepening midlevel lapse rates along the leading rim of
the mid/upper trough's DCVA field. This should promote development
of surface-based effective-inflow parcels, with 100-500 J/kg of
lower-elevation MLCAPE in a narrow preconvective corridor. With
strong frontal/QLCS forcing and intense deep-layer wind fields, a low-CAPE/high-shear convective band may bring strong-severe gusts to
the surface, in addition to the strong ambient gradient winds likely
in some locales.

..Edwards/Broyles.. 01/01/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140124
SWODY1
SPC AC 140122

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2023

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...Discussion...
A highly amplified flow field aloft will continue across the U.S.
the remainder of the period. Ahead of the trough moving eastward
across the eastern U.S., deep moist convection is confined to areas
offshore, over the eastern Atlantic.

In the west, a weakening short-wave trough is moving across the
Great Basin and vicinity, which has allowed earlier lightning
activity over California to dissipate. Meanwhile, the next eastern
Pacific system is forecast to remain offshore through the period.
As such, any lightning across California and vicinity should remain
sporadic at best -- insufficient to warrant continuation of the 10%
thunder area.

..Goss.. 01/14/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021658
SWODY1
SPC AC 021656

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

CORRECTED NDFD GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida
Panhandle late tonight, perhaps accompanied by gusty winds.

...Synopsis...
Split flow across the eastern Pacific has become less amplified,
with one generally zonal belt emanating from the southern
mid-latitudes likely to become increasingly influential across the
U.S. today into this weekend. This will coincide with the eastward acceleration of the prominent downstream Arctic low, which has been
centered near/northeast of Hudson Bay for the past week or so, and
the suppression of the subtropical ridging which has been centered
over the Caribbean vicinity.

In response to a couple of vigorous short wave impulses digging
around its western and southern periphery, the Arctic low is
forecast to redevelop southward and southeastward, across Hudson Bay
into Quebec, today through tonight, within larger-scale mid-level
troughing amplifying southward across much of the Northeast. It
appears that this will be accompanied by the initiation of strong
surface cyclogenesis across southern Quebec through the lower St.
Lawrence Valley, and a significant trailing intrusion of cold air
across most areas east of the Rockies.

An initially stalled or slower moving lead front across the
Southeast into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico may slowly accelerate southeastward across much of the remainder of the eastern Gulf and
south Atlantic Coast states (including northern Florida) later today
through tonight, before increasingly being overtaken by the trailing
front. This will occur as an upstream short wave trough continues
to progress eastward, in phase with a branch of westerlies emanating
from the subtropical eastern Pacific. However, this perturbation
will become increasingly sheared within an increasingly confluent
regime across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, and any
associated wave development along the surface front is still
forecast to remain quite weak.

...Florida Panhandle vicinity...
Along/ahead of the lead surface front, mid/upper 60s F surface dew
points spreading inland across coastal areas between Apalachicola
and Pensacola will contribute to boundary-layer destabilization
today. However, CAPE is likely to remain weak, with convective
development suppressed due to warm layers with weak lapse rates
aloft, associated with the subtropical ridging.

It is possible that forcing for ascent may increase in close
proximity to the surface front as it begins to advance eastward
through the Florida Panhandle late this evening and overnight.
Coupled with cooling aloft, this may support increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, by
this time, low-level hodographs are forecast to become more linear,
with wind fields in the lowest few kilometers above ground level
remaining somewhat modest (on the order of 30-40 kt around 850 mb).
While a couple of storms with gusty winds approaching severe limits
might not be out of the question, the risk for severe weather
appears generally low.

..Kerr.. 02/02/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211608
SWODY1
SPC AC 211607

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 21 2023

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN DISCUSSION

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

...Discussion...

An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east across
central CA toward the western Great Basin through the period. Strong west/southwest deep-layer flow on the south side of this system will
extend from southern CA through the Four Corners. Abundant moisture
and cooling aloft, resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates, will
support areas of 100-400 J/kg MLCAPE across parts of coastal
southern/central CA into the southern Sacramento and San Joaquin
Valleys. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the period.
Sufficient effective shear, with some modest vertically veering wind
profiles and small, but favorably curved low-level hodographs, could
support a brief/transient supercell or two this afternoon/evening.
Small hail and gusty winds would be the main hazards with any
stronger convection. However, the risk is expected to remain too
conditional and limited in coverage/longevity to include marginal probabilities.

Further east, increasing westerly deep-layer flow will overspread
the Plains and the Midwest as a series of weak shortwave impulses
traverse the region. Low-level warm advection will bring mainly
upper 40s to 50s F surface dewpoints as far north as central/eastern
KS and eastward into the Lower MS Valley through tonight. Steepening
midlevel lapse rates atop an EML around 850 mb will contribute to
modest elevated instability (200-500 J/kg MUCAPE). Isolated,
elevated thunderstorms will be possible across the Mid-MS Valley
vicinity on the nose of stronger warm advection. Severe potential
appears limited, but any stronger cells that develop across northern
MO near the end of the period could perhaps produce small hail.

..Leitman.. 03/21/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250115
SWODY1
SPC AC 250114

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR AN ERROR IN THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PROBABILITY LINE

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the lower
Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley tonight. Several tornadoes
are possible, including the possibility for a few strong tornadoes,
and scattered damaging gusts.

...01z update for the lower MS Valley north into the lower OH
Valley...
Ongoing extensive band of thunderstorms from the lower OH Valley
into the lower MS Valley will continue to progress
east-northeastward this evening and into the overnight hours, in
advance of a migratory mid-level shortwave trough. A surface low is
forecast to continue to deepen and develop northeast from northeast
AR into IN by early morning tomorrow. A warm front will advance
northward tonight into parts of the lower OH Valley as the moist
sector (via a marine front) advances northward into northern MS.
Considerable uncertainty exists on the northern portion of the
outlook area across the lower OH Valley where very strong wind
fields will be present in a gradually destabilizing airmass
featuring scant to weak buoyancy. Have lowered forecast severe
probabilities across this region due primarily to weaker instability
and increased confidence in only limited buoyancy developing before
a band of storms overspreads the area from the west tonight.
Farther south, a mixed mode of linear storms and supercells will
likely traverse the northern portion of a moist/more unstable
airmass near and south of a marine warm front. Strengthening
low-level shear/SRH will favor storm organization in the form of
persistent mesocyclones. A couple of longer-track supercells are
possible and a few of these supercells will likely pose a tornado
risk. A few strong tornadoes are possible. As storms gradually
grow upscale tonight and move into weaker instability over the TN
Valley, a gradual lessening in tornado potential is expected. In
the meantime, scattered damaging gusts are probable with the more
intense storms before more limited severe-wind coverage ensues.

..Smith.. 03/25/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260118
SWODY1
SPC AC 260117

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
tonight over portions of the central Gulf Coast states eastward into
Georgia.

...Central Gulf Coast into GA...
Strong southwesterly mid- to high-level flow will extend from TX east-northeastward into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states while
a trough remains over the West. A very moist/unstable boundary
layer was sampled over the central Gulf Coast early this evening
(reference the 00 UTC Slidell, LA raob). A gradual intensification
of low-level warm-air advection is expected to occur this evening
into the overnight. Coincident with this increase in forcing near a
stalled frontal zone draped over the region, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop. Deep-layer shear and
buoyancy profiles will favor some of the stronger storms to acquire
supercell characteristics. Given the relatively moist boundary
layer, surface-based storms or nearly surface based are expected.
An isolated risk for a tornado may develop with the stronger, more
persistently rotating storms along with a risk for large to very
large hail. A gradual coalescing of storms will probably take place
as some of the activity moves east through parts of AL into GA late
tonight into early Sunday morning.

..Smith.. 03/26/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271253
SWODY1
SPC AC 271251

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

CORRECTED FOR RISK HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the Gulf
Coast to Southeast States through early Tuesday. The greatest
concentration of damaging winds into this afternoon is expected from
southern South Carolina to southeast Georgia.

...Southeast...
Remnant clusters persist across central portions of GA/AL along and
north of larger-scale west/east-oriented convective outflow, with
renewed convective development southwest to the central Gulf Coast
ahead of a cold front impinging from the northwest. To this south of
the outflow boundary and east of the pre-frontal confluence band,
surface temperatures in the low to mid 70s with dew points in the
upper 60s to lower 70s have persisted across southern AL and the FL
Panhandle, with less moisture farther east towards the GA coast.
Broken warm-sector cloudiness should foster an uptick in convective
coverage through late morning, before low-level convergence near the
front diminishes this afternoon. Through the day, warm sector
low-level winds will weaken from west to east as the peripheral
influence of a shortwave trough over the Midwest moves towards the
Northeast. Nevertheless, around 40 to 50-kt effective bulk shear
should support transient supercell structures in the more vigorous
updrafts. While overall threat magnitude may remain on the marginal
side, occasional bouts of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and
a brief tornado or two may occur, focused on southeast AL to
southern SC.

...Southeast TX and LA...
The trailing extension of the cold front should stall today along
the northwest Gulf Coast. Weak low-level isentropic ascent will
occur to the cool side of the frontal zone tonight, peripherally
influenced by a shortwave trough moving across the central Great
Plains. Guidance differs with potential advancement of the surface
front overnight, with the 06Z NAM inland while the 09Z RAP suggests
the boundary will be progressively nudged offshore as surface
ridging builds down the Sabine Valley. In addition, given the
relatively weak forcing for ascent, below-average confidence exists
in the timing of convective development with some guidance as early
as this evening and others holding off until overnight. These
factors render low confidence in the overall severe threat,
especially for hazards beyond hail. Nevertheless, substantial speed
shear in the mid to upper-levels will foster a straight-line
hodograph. In conjunction with modest elevated buoyancy, a few
supercells with mid-level rotation will probably form within a spatially-uncertain mesoscale corridor tonight. Isolated large hail
should be the primary hazard.

..Grams/Goss.. 03/27/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 310613
SWODY1
SPC AC 310612

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR MISPLACED LABEL

...SUMMARY...
Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several
tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected.

...Discussion...

Strong, dynamic upper low will begin to deepen early in the period
as it tracks across the central Plains into the Midwest Friday
evening. This feature will encourage a pronounced surface low to
eject into southeast NE by sunrise Friday, then into lower MI by the
end of the period. Significant moisture return ahead of the
associated cold front will lead to an air mass supportive of severe thunderstorms from the mid MS Valley/Midwest into the lower MS
Valley.

...Mid-MS Valley/Midwest Vicinity...

Early this morning, a strong upper trough is shifting across western
WY/Four Corners region. An upper low should evolve over the central
Plains by late morning with further deepening expected as the low
tracks into the mid MO Valley by early evening. Latest model
guidance suggests a 500mb speed max will increase to near 110kt as
it translates across MO into the OH Valley during the latter half of
the period. As a result, intense 12hr height falls, on the order of
270-300m, will spread across the mid MS Valley/Midwest which should
encourage the aforementioned surface low to deepen as it matures
over northeast IA/southwest WI.

Strong low-level warm advection is currently aiding a corridor of
elevated convection from northeast NE across northern IA,
along/north of a stationary front draped across this region. Latest
thinking is much of the warm sector should remain convective-free
through late morning until leading edge of stronger forcing spreads
east in conjunction with rapid boundary-layer heating ahead of the
cold front. Steep low-level lapse rate plume should develop across
the central Plains early then spread/develop east-northeast across
MO into portions of IA ahead of the front. Forecast soundings
suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 18z immediately
ahead of the low/front. Scattered supercells should develop quickly
thereafter, tracking quickly northeast in response to the
fast-moving upper trough/speed max. Discrete supercells should be
the initial storm mode with very large hail expected. With time,
strong forcing may lead to line segment and clusters. Strong shear
will support long-lived updrafts. In addition to very large hail,
tornadoes can be expected (a few strong) with these storms,
especially prior to any line segment evolution.

While the more concentrated storms should be noted across
IA/northern MO into northwest IL, there is concern for more isolated
long-track supercells across central MO into IL. All hazards can be
expected with these storms.

...Lower MS Valley...

A secondary corridor of concentrated convection is expected to
evolve ahead of the front across the lower MS Valley. Early-day
mid-level speed max that races across northern OK into MO will allow
the front to surge into southern MO, arcing across the Arklatex by
late afternoon. Surface dew points have risen into the mid 60s
across northeast TX/western LA early this morning. This air mass
will easily advance across AR into western KY prior to convective
initiation. As a result, SBCAPE should be on the order of 2000 J/kg
with very strong sfc-6km shear and low-level SRH. Any supercells
that evolve within this air mass will do so within an environment
that favors long-lived updrafts and strong tornadoes. Upscale growth
into a QLCS is expected during the latter half of the period. Severe
threat should spread east across the northern Gulf States Friday
night.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 03/31/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030123
SWODY1
SPC AC 030121

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/EAST
TX TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK LINES

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from
north-central Texas into the ArkLaTex region and portions of the
lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging gusts, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...North/central TX into the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley...
Isolated supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of north
into central TX. See MCD 440 for more information regarding the
short-term threat in this area. Farther east, an intense bowing
cluster has recently moved through Shreveport, LA. As a shortwave
trough moves quickly eastward tonight, the severe threat will spread
to the lower MS Valley, with all severe hazards possible near/south
of a northward-moving warm front, and hail/gusty winds possible with
stronger elevated cells north of the front.

Uncertainty remains regarding the eastward extent of the severe
threat into parts of southern MS/AL. Recent HRRR guidance suggests
that ongoing convection and/or renewed development near the warm
front will be possible as far east as southern AL before the end of
the period. As a result, the Marginal Risk has been extended
eastward in order to cover this potential early morning threat.

..Dean.. 04/03/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060106
SWODY1
SPC AC 060105

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
A marginal wind-damage threat will continue this evening for a
couple more hours from the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the
western Gulf Coast states.

...Western Pennsylvania/Western New York...
The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Pittsburgh shows a line of
thunderstorms, with some embedded stronger cells, located from the
eastern part of Lake Erie southward into western Pennsylvania and
then southwestward into western West Virginia. Along and to the east
of this corridor, the RAP has MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. In spite of
the weak instability, the WSR-88D VWP from College Station has some
speed and directional shear in the lowest 2 kilometer above ground
level. This combined with 50 knot of westerly flow in the mid-levels
is creating strong enough deep-layer shear for an isolated
wind-damage threat. As the line progresses eastward across western
Pennsylvania over the next few hours, a few damaging wind gusts will
be possible. The more discrete cells further to the east across
south-central Pennsylvania could also have a marginal tornado threat
or potential for small hail. The threat could continue for another
hour or two before diminishing.

...Central Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Lower Mississippi
Valley/Western Gulf Coast...
Mosaic radar imagery across the eastern and southern United States,
shows a relatively broad band of convection located from the central Appalachians to the western Gulf Coast. The storms are generally
ahead of a front, except in southeast Texas where most of the
convection is post-frontal. Along this band of storms, instability
is generally weak. However, WSR-88D VWPs along this corridor show
strong deep-layer shear, which is associated with the southeastern
edge of a mid-level jet moving through the Upper Midwest. For this
reason, a marginal wind-damage threat will be possible for a few
more hours.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 190349
SWODY1
SPC AC 190348

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2023

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...

CORRECTED FOR VALID TIME ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible the remainder of the
evening into the overnight hours across parts of South Dakota,
Nebraska, southwest Minnesota and western/central Iowa.

...01z Update...

The Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) has been removed along much of the
dryline from KS into western OK/northwest TX. Isolated thunderstorms
will continue near the NE/KS border, shifting east/northeast through
the remainder of the evening, but additional thunderstorm
development is unexpected further south. Thunderstorms over eastern
WY into western SD/NE will percolate eastward, and some additional
development is expected overnight with this activity, as well as an
increase in coverage with the south-central NE cluster. As this
convection shifts east/northeast overnight toward eastern SD,
southwest MN and western/central IA, sporadic strong gusts and hail
will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/19/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 191640
SWODY1
SPC AC 191639

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-MO
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR HAIL AND CATEGORICAL LINES IN IL

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from
late afternoon into tonight across the Mid-Missouri Valley. Very
large hail is likely, and significant severe wind gusts along with a
few tornadoes will be possible. A conditional threat for isolated
significant severe storms also exists farther south into
western/central Oklahoma and western north Texas this evening.

...Mid-MO Valley...
Three rounds of severe potential appear increasingly evident across
the Mid-MO Valley vicinity beginning in the late afternoon and
continuing tonight. The first should consist of elevated
thunderstorms north of the slow-moving/quasi-stationary warm front
that is arcing east of the initial primary surface cyclone over
southeast NE. This activity near the NE/SD/IA border will probably
evolve into a couple of elevated supercells within an
eastward-moving cluster, owing to favorable cloud-bearing shear
along the northern gradient of the peak buoyancy plume across the
central Great Plains. Large hail will be the primary hazard.

A separate area of dryline to warm-sector storm development is
anticipated towards the KS/NE/MO/IA border during the early evening
in the exit region of a strengthening low-level jet in OK/KS/MO.
This ascent combined with the boundary-layer thermal ridge from
western OK to central/eastern KS should be enough to overcome the
pronounced elevated mixed-layer across the Great Plains. 12Z NAM
guidance remains terribly inconsistent with the 00Z ECMWF, recent
RAP guidance, and comparison to surface observations. It is already
much too cool with current temperatures with it's typical too
cool/moist boundary layer. It appears more likely that a relatively
well-mixed boundary layer within this portion of the warm/moist
sector will be characterized by surface dew points from 58-61 F as
storms form. This will seemingly support a mix of large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes with supercells that
initially form. Given a relatively confined buoyancy plume,
regenerative convection is likely through the evening, yielding a
broadening cluster with embedded supercell structures.

Tonight, a third round of severe storms should develop near the
south-central NE/north-central KS border. This should occur as a lee
cyclone over the central High Plains shifts east, in association
with a shortwave impulse progressing through the basal portion of
the broader mid-level trough over the West. A surge of low-level
moisture northwestward amid an intense 60-70 kt low-level jet should
support emerging elevated supercell clusters that track east
overnight, potentially merging with lingering convection downstream.
Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats.

...Western/central OK into western north TX...
Storm development is uncertain along the dryline during the late
afternoon to early evening, given little in the way of height
falls/forcing for ascent, and the presence of a substantial
warm-sector cap. Storm initiation will rely on the depth of mixing
with surface heating along the dryline, and on parcel residence time
in the dryline zone of ascent. Flow in the 850-700 mb layer will be
a bit more parallel to the dryline compared to yesterday, which may
allow long enough residence times to reach an LFC. If storms form,
the environment favors a threat of isolated very large hail with any
sustained supercell.

During the evening, substantial intensification of the low-level jet
and an increase in boundary-layer moisture renders concern for a
conditional strong tornado threat after dusk. Overall moisture
appears a bit less compared to past nocturnal intense tornado events
and confidence is low in whether a supercell or two can become
established prior to increasing MLCIN during the late evening. As
such, confidence in occurrence/coverage is low, but intensity is
conditionally significant.

..Grams/Thornton.. 04/19/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260625
SWODY1
SPC AC 260623

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

CORRECTED FOR ERRORS IN GRAPHIC AND GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTOR

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds, very large hail, and a few
tornadoes are expected over much of north-central Texas Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered severe storms producing
very large hail and damaging winds may also occur in the Florida
Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low, seen on water-vapor imagery this morning
across southwest Colorado will shift southeast through the day
today. A 50 knot mid-level jet west of this low will round the base
of the trough during the morning hours and emerge over the southern
Plains this afternoon, as the initially positively tilted wave
becomes more neutrally tilted.

A complicated surface pattern will be in place this afternoon. A
weak surface low seen in surface observations near the TX/NM border
this morning, will slowly drift east through the day. Most guidance
shows the surface low bifurcate as the primary surface low moves
south toward Mexico and a small portion travels east along the warm
front during the evening. This warm front is expected to be
somewhere near the Red River this afternoon/evening with a
sharpening dryline extending south across central Texas.

...Central Texas and Vicinity...
A forward-propagating MCS is expected to develop in the Texas
Panhandle early this morning and move east-southeast through the
morning hours. South of this MCS, significant surface heating is
expected, with very strong instability (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
developing by mid afternoon. Broad ascent ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough, combined with this surface heating, should result
in minimal inhibition by 19-20Z. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop along the dryline around this time, and should quickly
evolve into supercells given around 45 to 50 knots of effective
shear. Weak low-level shear, very strong instability, and persistent
increasing westerly flow between the LCL and EL will all support
very large to potentially giant hail, especially during the
afternoon period. During the afternoon, the tornado threat will
primarily be focused near the warm front or potentially a remnant
MCS outflow boundary from the previous night's convection where
greater low-level vorticity should be present.

However, during the evening period, especially 23-02Z, the low-level
jet will strengthen and hodographs will elongate. The tornado threat
should increase significantly during this period, with the potential
for a strong tornado or two. During this same period, significant
upscale growth is expected with one or more clusters developing and
likely becoming a forward-propagating MCS into east-central Texas.
During the transition from intense supercells to forward-propagating
linear segments, a significant (65+ knot) wind threat may
materialize.

...Florida...
An EML off the Mexican Plateau, observed on the 12Z BRO and CRP
RAOBs has traversed the Gulf of Mexico with the early evidence of
its arrival at the 00Z TBW RAOB. These steep lapse rates will set
the stage for a potentially significant severe-weather setup across
Florida today. The 00Z TBW RAOB shows a 500mb temperature of -11.5C
which is expected to cool to -15C by 12Z and to -13C at MFL. These
anomalously cool temperatures aloft will aid in significant
destabilization with MLCAPE forecast 2500 to 3000 J/kg by late
morning. This buoyancy, combined with 40 to 50 knots of effective
shear, will support splitting supercells capable or large to
potentially very large hail during the afternoon to early evening
hours.

..Bentley.. 04/26/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 272012
SWODY1
SPC AC 272010

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF FLORIDA...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms remain possible today over portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley as well as much of central and northern Florida.
Damaging gusts, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will all be
possible.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been cleared from deep-south TX since the
cold front has pushed through the area, reducing convective
potential. Severe probabilities have also been trimmed across
portions of the Gulf Coast where an MCS have moved through and overturned/stabilized the airmass enough to reduce the severe
threat. Otherwise, severe potential remains with the ongoing MCS
moving across the central FL Panhandle, and with storms that can
form on a sea-breeze boundary across northeast parts of the FL
Peninsula. Damaging gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two remain
possible. Severe potential remains with storms that can develop
closer to the surface low over the Lower MS Valley, with damaging
gusts and large hail the main threats. Lastly, a severe gust or two
may accompany low-topped convection behind the cold front across the
central Rockies/central High Plains, before nocturnal cooling
reduces the steep low-level lapse rates and associated severe gust
potential.

..Squitieri.. 04/27/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023/

...MS/AL/FL/GA...
a large area of thunderstorms has been tracking eastward across the
central Gulf Coast region this morning. The overall severe threat
has diminished through the morning, but may reinvigorate this
afternoon with slow daytime heating and moisture advection as storms
will spread into southwest GA and the eastern FL Panhandle (WW 174).
Forecast soundings and local VAD profiles show sufficient
deep-layer shear for a few supercells capable of damaging wind gusts
or perhaps a tornado or two through the afternoon.

...SE GA/FL...
Strong daytime heating is occurring from southeast GA into the
eastern FL Peninsula, where dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s will
yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid-afternoon over the
central Peninsula, as well as farther north with the approach of the
convection over AL and the Panhandle. The environment in this area
will be somewhat similar to yesterday, with a risk of a few
supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms
should track offshore by mid-evening, ending the severe threat.

...AR/MS/TN/AL...
Skies are beginning to slowly clear over parts of AR, beneath a cold
upper low. This trend will continue through the afternoon, leading
to a region of moderate CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates. Most
CAM solutions agree on the development of scattered afternoon
thunderstorms from central AR eastward into west TN and northern MS.
This region will be in the exit region of a mid-level jet max, and
in an area of sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts. The
strongest cells will be capable of large hail for few hours this
afternoon and evening.

...South TX...
A cold front is sagging southward across Deep South TX today.
Low-level winds ahead of the front have shifted to northerly,
reducing frontal convergence and likely limiting the coverage of
afternoon thunderstorms. Nevertheless, an isolated storm or two
remains possible. Any storms that form would be in a very moist and
unstable environment, with sufficient flow aloft to promote
supercell structures. Large to very large hail would be possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040806
SWODY1
SPC AC 040804

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TO OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE DIRECTION

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, strong/damaging wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of the
southern Great Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated
strong to severe storms capable of severe wind and large hail are
possible across parts of the central Plains and the Pacific
Northwest.

...Synopsis...
Omega blocking over the southern/central Plains is expected to break
down over the next 24 hours as a sub-tropical shortwave trough,
noted over Baja California and northwest Mexico in latest
water-vapor imagery, shifts northeast. This will result in modest
lee cyclogenesis over the TX Panhandle and northwest OK this
afternoon, which will help northward moisture advection through the
day, and the establishment of a warm sector ahead of the approaching
ascent. A weak surface trough/stationary front across the central
Plains will likely focus thunderstorm development this afternoon
within an otherwise weakly forced environment. Across the Pacific
Northwest, broad ascent over eastern WA and northern ID may support
a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.

...Southern Plains...
Mid 50s to upper 60s dewpoints, currently spread across central to
southern TX, are expected to gradually advect north into central OK
as the lee cyclone deepens through the day. Broad ascent ahead of
the approaching shortwave trough is noted in recent satellite
imagery, and is expected to maintain a swath of high-level cloud
cover over the region. This will modulate diurnal warming over much
of TX/OK/KS to some degree, but temperatures warming into the upper
70s should be adequate to support a corridor of around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE across central OK with increasing buoyancy into central TX.
40-50 knot mid-level flow associated with the wave should overspread
much of the region, and somewhat weak low-level flow will result in
elongated, nearly straight, hodographs across the warm sector.

While the environment appears adequate to support organized
convection, storm coverage and mode remain uncertain, especially
across north TX into OK and far southern KS. Overnight convection
ongoing across the TX Panhandle may persist into central OK/north TX
by the start of the period. This could reinforce the existing
diffuse warm frontal zone across north TX, which could then be a
focus for convective initiation this afternoon. Several CAMs also
depict sufficient isentropic ascent ahead of the wave for broad rain showers/isolated elevated thunderstorms during the morning hours,
which may hinder destabilization. Predictability of these scenarios
is low given spread in high-res model solutions. Thunderstorm
initiation appears most probable along a sharpening dryline across
western OK to central TX where initial storm modes should be
discrete to semi-discrete supercells given off-boundary storm motions/deep-layer shear vectors. While confidence in exact
evolution of the warm sector is somewhat low across OK/KS, backed
low-level winds in the vicinity of the surface cyclone may support
adequate low-level shear for a couple of tornadoes if discrete
supercells can be achieved.

...Central Plains...
Although moisture advection into the central Plains is expected to
be modest, ensemble guidance shows a reasonably strong signal for
dewpoints in the low 50s to reach NE by late afternoon. This,
coupled with 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, should be adequate for a
swath of MLCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg. The central Plains
will be well displaced from stronger synoptic ascent to the south,
but focused lift along a surface trough/stationary front should
support thunderstorm development by late afternoon. Effective bulk
shear values near 25-30 knots will allow for organized convection,
but mean-wind vectors and storm motions roughly along the initiating
boundary may favor upscale growth, limiting the coverage/duration of
the severe threat.

...Pacific Northwest...
Recent surface observations are sampling a pocket of dewpoints in
the upper 40s to low 50s across eastern WA into adjacent areas of
OR/ID. This moisture will support a regional pocket of 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE this afternoon, which may allow for a few more intense cells
as lift ahead of a broad West Coast low overspreads the region.
While the spatial coverage of this threat is expected to be limited,
adequate deep-layer shear may allow for robust convection capable of
posing a hail/wind risk. This scenario appears to be captured well
by latest CAM ensembles, which show a somewhat stronger UH signal
across the region compared to previous days.

..Moore/Broyles.. 05/04/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081648
SWODY1
SPC AC 081647

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Mon May 08 2023

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS SOUTH TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR SLIGHT RISK HEADER

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely from the Ozark
Plateau to the Lower Ohio Valley, centered on 4 to 11 PM CDT. Large
hail and damaging winds should be the main severe risks. Severe
thunderstorms are also possible across areas such as South Texas.

...Ozarks to Lower Ohio Valley...
A linear cluster of storms across western/central Kentucky has
gradually trended downscale since early this morning but still
otherwise continues to persist southeastward. To its west/northwest,
the most confident scenario is for the front and lingering outflow
boundary to focus later afternoon convective development from
southern Missouri into southern Illinois, and eventually western
Kentucky.

Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample a core of relatively
strong, potentially rear inflow/convectively enhanced, mid-level
winds in the wake of the MCS across southeast Missouri/western Kentucky/southern Illinois vicinity. Resultant 40+ kt deep-layer
shear will tend to largely persist regionally and support organized
updrafts, including some supercells and sustained multicells as
storms redevelop later this afternoon. This should particularly be
the case within the greater instability reservoir across southern
portions of Missouri/Illinois. Significant severe hail will be
possible with initial supercells given the rather steep mid-level
lapse rates emanating east from the Great Plains. However,
convection should quickly tend to grow upscale into clusters where
the deep-layer shear vector is oriented more parallel to the front
from the Ozark Plateau to the Lower Ohio Valley. As such, a mix of
large hail and damaging wind should be the primary threats as
clusters/MCSs spread east-southeastward towards the Tennessee Valley
and central Appalachians tonight.

...Texas Rio Grande vicinity/Edwards Plateau/Low Rolling Plains...
The dryline from the Big Country to the Edwards Plateau should
support isolated thunderstorms from late afternoon to early evening.
Unlike previous days, winds should be weak through much of the large
buoyancy profile as stronger upper flow is displaced southeast of
the dryline due to a low-amplitude upper trough. While isolated
large hail/localized severe-caliber gusts are possible, the scenario
suggests that convection should tend to be rather disorganized
across the Low Rolling Plains into parts of the Edwards Plateau.

A somewhat higher probability of severe storms (Slight Risk),
nonetheless with a number of lingering uncertainties, appears to
exist from the middle Rio Grande vicinity northward into southern
parts of the Edwards Plateau, potentially aided by a weak mid-level
disturbance currently over northern Mexico. Near-dryline convective
development aside, this could also include the eastward propagation
of storms across the Rio Grande this evening. The northwestward
advection of a very moist air mass, as sampled by the 12z CRP
sounding with 1.80 PW value and 15.4 g/kg mean mixing ratio, will
support robust 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE across south-central Texas this
afternoon. Very steep mid-level lapse rates (12z DRT observed
sounding), ample buoyancy, and around 30 kt effective shear will
support large hail/severe-caliber wind gusts where storms do develop
later this afternoon into evening.

...South-Central Plains to ArkLaTex - Marginal Risk Areas...
Several mechanisms for sustaining deep convection are apparent this
afternoon and evening, offering a threat for generally isolated
large hail and severe wind gusts. The trailing portion of the
weak quasi-stationary front near the Oklahoma/Kansas border may be a
focus for later evening slow-moving thunderstorm development.

Additionally, a pair of MCVs, one drifting east from north-central
Texas and the other drifting northeast near the Upper TX Coast
should support downstream isolated to scattered thunderstorms,
peaking in intensity this afternoon to early evening. Modest
deep-layer shear coincident with the eastern fringe of the steep
mid-level lapse rate plume should yield sporadic multicell clusters
and foster a threat for lower-end intensities of severe hail/wind.

...Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies will be maintained to the
south of a low near the Minnesota/Ontario border drifting northwest
into southern Manitoba. Despite an ill-defined surface pattern,
robust boundary-layer heating from Kansas towards the Middle
Missouri Valley should overlap with the western periphery of a
lingering plume of 50s F surface dew points over Iowa. This may aid
in isolated late afternoon to early evening thunderstorms. With
light low-level winds, speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer
will foster a moderately elongated straight-line hodograph. This
will favor splitting discrete cells with mid-level rotation and
potential for isolated large hail, and perhaps even a brief tornado
risk across far southeast Minnesota/northeast Iowa near a residual
weak boundary.

..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/08/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 152020
SWODY1
SPC AC 152019

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

CORRECTED GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms producing a few strong wind gusts
and hail will be possible today from parts of the Ozarks into the
Tennessee Valley vicinity.

...20Z Update...
Some adjustments to the categorical and probabilistic outlook lines
have been made, but mostly just to account for the slow progression
of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and associated trends
concerning destabilization.

Please refer to the 1630Z outlook discussion (appended below) and
the latest SPC mesoscale discussions for further details.

..Kerr.. 05/15/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023/

...Ozarks to TN Valley vicinity...

An upper ridge will persist over the Southeast much of today, while
a rather nondescript/weak flow regime remains in place across the
Plains. At the surface, a weak low/MCV is featured over eastern OK
late this morning. This feature will slowly migrate east/northeast
through southern MO through the period. Abundant boundary-layer
moisture (surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F) and
heating into upper 70s/low 80s F will support weak to moderate
destabilization ahead of the MCV. Deep-layer flow will remain light,
though the MCV will likely enhance low/midlevel winds modestly,
providing around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. This should
support some loosely organized, sporadically strong cells/bows.
Strong/locally damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards with
this activity. While low-level flow will remain very weak,
vertically veering winds in the lowest 1-2 km will produce very
modestly curved hodographs with some minor SRH ahead of the MCV in
conjunction with mean mixing ratios near 15-16 g/kg. Tornado
potential is expected to remain very low, but a funnel cloud or
brief spin-up could occur this afternoon, mainly across southern MO.

Further east toward Middle TN into adjacent portions of northern
AL/extreme northwest GA, shear profile will be even more modest,
mainly relegating afternoon activity to pulse-like convection.
However, stronger instability and a more deeply mixed boundary-layer
could support potential for water-loaded downdrafts and isolated
downbursts producing locally strong gusts with any more transient
intense cells this afternoon. The strongest cells could also produce
small hail.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171642
SWODY1
SPC AC 171640

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN US...AND PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA....

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTION

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible over a vast area from Colorado to
Florida, and central Texas to the lower Missouri Valley. Within
that, a focused corridor of threat for damaging hail, significant
wind damage, and a few tornadoes, extends from southeastern Colorado
to northwestern Arkansas, and into north Texas.

...Southeast CO to Arkansas...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
over southwest CO. This feature will cross the Rockies and begin
affecting the High Plains this afternoon, promoting scattered
thunderstorms off the high terrain and foothills. Initial supercell
storms over southeast CO will be in a region of steep mid-level
lapse rates and moderate CAPE, favorable for large hail. As
activity moves/builds eastward into southwest KS, the northern TX
Panhandle, and northwest OK, it will encounter high CAPE values and increasingly strong low-level winds. Supercells with very large
hail, significant wind damage potential, and a few tornadoes may
affect this area during the evening. Upscale growth of this cluster
of storms into a fast-moving bowing complex remains likely, with
activity moving across northern OK into northwest AR tonight.

...North TX...
A 50-60 knot westerly mid-level jet max is accompanying the
aforementioned shortwave trough over CO. This wind max will move
across the TX Panhandle this evening, with enhanced forcing for
ascent affecting the dryline over west TX. This will lead to rapid
supercell development in a very moist and unstable environment.
Very large hail and damaging winds are expected with the stronger
cells. Several CAM solutions favor splitting supercells, with
left-movers tracking northeastward toward the Red River through the
evening with a continued risk of significant severe. Therefore have
extended the ENH risk into these areas.

...MS/AL/FL...
Morning model guidance shows a subtle shortwave trough currently
over west TN tracking southeastward into AL, with an associated
40-50 knot mid-level wind max moving across MS. Strong daytime
heating of a very moist boundary layer ahead of these features
should result in scattered severe thunderstorm development by mid
afternoon over parts of southeast MS, southern AL, and the FL
Panhandle. Given the strength of the deep-layer shear, supercell
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected. A
tornado or two is also possible as the storms approach the coast
late this afternoon. Activity should move offshore after dark.

...Western IA...
A well-defined remnant MCV is noted this morning over
central/eastern NE. Southerly low-level winds ahead of this
circulation will maintain near 70F dewpoints over western IA, where
strong heating is occurring. This should lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show sufficient
vertical shear for organized multicell or occasional supercell
storms capable of hail and damaging winds. Therefore have added a
SLGT risk to this region for this afternoon and early evening.

..Hart/Gleason.. 06/17/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250120
SWODY1
SPC AC 250118

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0818 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Valid 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
MINNESOTA...IOWA...NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

CORRECTED FOR HAIL PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible
into the overnight hours across a broad area from parts of the
southern Great Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. One or two
clusters of storms could still develop near or just east of the
middle Mississippi Valley through daybreak.

...01Z Update...
Models indicate that a modest cyclone (currently centered at the
surface) over southeastern North Dakota will gradually occlude and
weaken overnight while gradually reforming east-southeastward into
the Upper Midwest. A trailing surface cold front is forecast to
surge southeastward/southward through much of the lower Missouri
Valley and central Great Plains, while a dryline lingers across
parts of northwest Texas/western Oklahoma.

Strongest mid/upper support for upward vertical motion will remain
focused within a strongly difluent regime to the southeast of the
mid-level low, downstream of a seasonably strong digging mid-level
jet (50+ kt around 500 mb) across and northeast of the lower
Missouri Valley. The leading edge of the return of seasonably moist
air on southerly flow beneath this regime is contributing to
moderately large CAPE in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
Low-level forcing for ascent has remained weak, but various model
output suggests that lower/mid-level warm advection will strengthen
across southeastern Iowa through central Illinois this evening,
where storms could still increase and consolidate into an organizing
cluster.

As the larger-scale mid-level troughing continues to dig overnight,
models suggest similar, but perhaps weaker, forcing for ascent may
develop across parts of southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois
into the lower Ohio Valley/Mid South toward daybreak. Inflow of
seasonably moist air with large potential instability will
contribute to an environment at least conditionally supportive of
another organizing cluster of storms posing a risk for severe hail
and wind.

..Kerr.. 06/25/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291720
SWODY1
SPC AC 291718

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR IMPROPERLY FORMATTED HAIL POINTS PRODUCT

...SUMMARY...
Swaths of damaging winds of 60-80 mph, large hail, and a couple of
tornadoes are expected today across Illinois and western/southern
Indiana. Other severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
gusts are expected across the Tennessee Valley, as well as the
central High Plains.

...Midwest/Tennessee Valley including MO/IL/IN/KY/TN...
An upper-ridge peripheral zone of locally intense/significant severe
weather is expected today, especially across Illinois into
western/southern Indiana and west-central Kentucky southward across
the Tennessee Valley.

A prominent/relatively large MCS across northeast Missouri and
northwest Illinois at late morning will continue to progress
eastward through a very unstable air mass, with potential for
significant wind gusts, occasional hail, and some convective
line-embedded tornado risk. The eastern extent of the most intense
severe weather is a bit uncertain given current air mass
characteristics across far eastern Illinois into Indiana in the wake
of early day storms, but severe weather can nonetheless be expected
through the afternoon into evening.

Another focused corridor of severe weather will exist from the Lower
Ohio Valley southward into the Tennessee Valley, highlighted with a
leading south/southeastward-moving MCS, as well as regenerative
potentially severe convection on its trailing west/northwest flanks.
Bouts of damaging winds and severe hail will be possible into this
evening in this corridor.

...Front Range/Central Plains this afternoon/evening...
Have upgraded portions of the Front Range and southeast Wyoming/far
western Nebraska and northeast Colorado to an Enhanced Risk. Severe
storms are expected later this afternoon into tonight within the
post-frontal upslope low-level flow across eastern
Colorado/southeast Wyoming, with appreciable low-level moisture
having spread westward to the Front Range overnight. Breaks in the
low clouds will support moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon (MLCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg), when thunderstorm development will become more
probable on and immediately east of the higher terrain from Colorado
into southeast Wyoming. The moderate buoyancy and relatively long
hodographs with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt will support
supercells capable of producing large hail of 2-3 inches in
diameter, along with some tornado potential. Upscale growth into a
few clusters will be possible this evening, with an attendant threat
for isolated severe-caliber winds. Some of the evening convection
may persist into the overnight hours across southern
Nebraska/northern Kansas with some threat for isolated large hail
and wind damage, potentially as far east as southwest Iowa/northwest
Missouri.

..Guyer/Smith.. 06/29/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 230103
SWODY1
SPC AC 230102

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR 5% HAIL LINE

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind damage will be
possible this evening in parts of the central Plains. Marginally
severe storms will also be possible in the southern High Plains, mid
Missouri Valley, upper Mississippi Valley, Southeast and Arizona.

...Central and Southern Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi
Valleys...
Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident across the central U.S. this
evening, with a subtle shortwave trough moving southeastward across
the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys extending into the
central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass is
in place from Kansas northeastward into Iowa, with surface dewpoints
in the 60s F contributing to moderate instability. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing within this airmass. The greatest
convective coverage is located in the central Plains, where
thunderstorm development will likely continue for much of the
evening.

An instability maximum is currently analyzed by the RAP in western
Kansas, where MLCAPE is estimated to be around 2500 J/kg. The
Goodland, Kansas WSR-88D VWP is near the instability max, and has
had 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range over the last hour. This
will continue to support supercell development over the next few
hours across western and northern Kansas. In addition, the RAP shows
an elevated mixed layer extending from the central Rockies into the
central Plains, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are estimated to be in
the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This thermodynamic environment will be
favorable for large hail with the more intense cores. Hailstones of
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible early this
evening in parts of western Kansas. In addition, a wind-damage
threat will accompany the more intense cells.

Outside of the slight risk area, moderate instability is currently
analyzed across parts of the southern High Plains, and in the mid
Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys. Although deep-layer shear
will be adequate in these areas for a marginal severe threat,
isolated convective coverage and decreasing instability will likely
cause the severe threat to diminish by mid to late evening.

...Southeast...
Westerly mid-level flow is located across much of the Southeast this
evening. At the surface, a cold front is located from south-central
Mississippi eastward into western Georgia. To the south of the
front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F are contributing
to moderate instability, mainly along the immediate Gulf Coast.
Strong thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern edge of this
unstable airmass. Although deep-layer shear appears to be marginal
for severe storms across much of the Gulf Coast, low-level lapse
rates are steep in many of the coastal areas according to the RAP.
This should be enough for an isolated wind-damage threat for another
hour or two this evening. The greatest potential will be in southern
Louisiana.

...Arizona...
A mid-level anticyclone is currently located over the Desert
Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from central New
Mexico into southwest Arizona, where an axis of instability is
located. Although deep-layer shear is relatively weak across this
area, 0-3 km lapse rates are estimated to be in the 9 to 10 C/km
range, according to the RAP. This will likely aid downdraft
acceleration with a few of the stronger cells this evening,
contributing to an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 07/23/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040110
SWODY1
SPC AC 040108

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0808 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
CO INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND SOUTHWEST NE...

CORRECTED FOR TORNADO GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Storms capable of producing severe wind gusts remain possible this
evening into late tonight across parts of the central High Plains.

...Central Plains...
Clusters of strong to occasionally severe storms are ongoing this
evening across parts of the central High Plains, with measured
severe gusts noted earlier near/east of Pueblo and Colorado Springs.
The potential remains for notable upscale growth later this evening
into parts of western KS and southwest NE, as ongoing convection
moves into an increasingly moist and unstable environment. Should
this occur, the potential for severe gusts will spread eastward
later tonight, with the threat possibly reaching
north-central/northeast KS before the end of the period.

...Parts of NY/VT...
Storms are gradually increasing in coverage this evening across
parts of central/northern NY, in response to a midlevel shortwave
trough moving across southern Quebec. Storms have thus far struggled
to remain organized, but weak to moderate instability and marginally
favorable deep-layer shear will support a threat for isolated hail
and damaging wind tonight, with multiple rounds of convection
possible.

...Southeast MO into western TN and northern MS/AL...
Another round of storms may erupt late tonight across parts of
southeast MO, as a modestly increasing low-level jet impinges upon a
reservoir of strong buoyancy. Storms will likely tend to remain
somewhat elevated, but at least isolated hail and damaging gusts
will be possible as one or more clusters move southeastward
overnight into parts of western TN and potentially northern MS/AL.

..Dean.. 08/04/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060644
SWODY1
SPC AC 060642

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 06 2023

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

CORRECTED SIG HAIL AREA

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today over parts
of the Midwest, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging gusts will be
possible over much of the region, with damaging hail most likely
from eastern Missouri into Illinois.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move east/southeast from IA into IL through
the period, with a belt of 50 kt midlevel winds extending from KS
into the lower OH Valley. At the surface, low pressure will move
from IA into IL, with a cold front extending southwestward across MO
and into OK during the day. Preceding the main upper trough, a
leading disturbance will move slowly from IN into OH, with a
boundary near the OH Valley lifting north as a warm front into
central IL by 00Z. South of these areas, a moist and unstable air
mass will remain over much of the Southeast.

...AR eastward across the TN Valley...
Models indicate that areas of storms may be ongoing over parts of AR
this morning, with possible continuation and/or outflow pushing east
into MS, TN, and AL during the afternoon. Along with this possible
forcing mechanism, westerly winds aloft will also increase through
the period. Strong heating will occur over the region ahead of this
possible activity, and forecast soundings depict tall CAPE profiles
with ML values over 3000 J/kg. Clusters of thunderstorms thus appear
likely to redevelop during the afternoon, with locally damaging
outflow winds possible.

...Eastern IA and MO into IL...
Rain and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over central and
eastern IA early in the day near the surface low. This will likely
limit heating for much of this area. Farther south into MO and
eventually into central IL, strengthening westerly winds associated
with the upper trough will aid boundary-layer mixing with stronger
heating occurring. A deep-layer theta-e plume will likely develop
from MO into IL, with both wind and hail potential as storms develop
after about 20Z close to the IA/MO/IL border. Additional activity is
likely to develop along the cold front southward across the mid MS
Valley, with expanding storm coverage into much of IL, southern IN
and parts of KY during the evening. A few storms may produce
damaging hail over 2.00" diameter.

..Jewell/Moore.. 08/06/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070601
SWODY1
SPC AC 070600

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW YORK...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR FORECASTER NAME

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across much of the eastern U.S.
today, with the greatest risk across West Virginia, much of
Virginia, Maryland, and southern Pennsylvania. Widespread damaging
winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are anticipated. Concentrated areas
of wind damage are also expected over parts of the southern
Appalachians, including parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the
Carolinas.

...From eastern KY/TN and OH across
WV...VA...MD...DE...PA...NJ...southern NY...
A complicated and active severe weather setup is forecast today,
with severe storms likely starting relatively early possibly from
southern OH across eastern KY and TN. The midlevel speed max is
forecast to travel eastward roughly along the KY/TN border, with 500
mb speeds over 50 kt and 300 mb around 80 kt. Little heating will be
required within the theta-e plume and beneath cooling temperatures
aloft, and scattered storms are expected by around 18Z over these
areas. Shear will favor supercells, and mesoscale factors such as
potential residual outflows could enhance low-level shear, or,
stabilize portions of the area. Existing storms as of 06Z Monday
near the OH River will likely play a role into late/mid morning
today.

Otherwise the entire area extending eastward toward the Coast will
destabilize ahead of the upper trough, with activity most likely
moving strengthening across WV and moving rapidly eastward into PA,
MD, and VA. Forecast soundings show the potential for a few
supercells, with modest low-level SRH. However, tornado threat will
depend on storm mode, and many models depict a squall line. Even so,
QLCS-type tornadoes will be possible along with the widespread
damaging winds. In addition, more isolated activity developing
northward across NY may also yield a tornado or two, as shear will
be favorable but with lesser instability.

...Eastern TN...AL...GA...Carolinas...
Strengthening west to northwest winds around the upper trough and
strong heating will likely lead to relatively widespread damaging
wind potential as storms form from TN into northern MS and AL around
midday. An expansion of storms producing outflow is likely across
most of GA and parts of the Carolinas through the afternoon as this
activity moves rapidly east/southeastward, possibly reaching the SC
Coast before 00Z.

...Central High Plains...
Moderate west/northwest winds aloft will exist from CO/WY into the
central Plains, with a belt of 70+ kt winds at 300 mb across
northern NM into OK/KS. At the surface, a weak ridge will exist over
the central Plains, but lee troughing will develop during afternoon
from western NE across eastern CO and into northeast NM. Storms
producing large hail are likely to form off the Front Range and
mature into severe storms producing hail and locally damaging gusts.
Other storms will form from southeast CO into NM, similarly moving
eastward across the Panhandles with lengthy hodographs favoring
hail.

..Jewell/Moore.. 08/07/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080550
SWODY1
SPC AC 080549

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...

CORRECTED FOR ERRONEOUS THUNDER LINE DIRECTION

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
central High Plains this afternoon into tonight. Large to very
large hail, along with a risk for a tornado and widely scattered
severe gusts, will be the potential hazards. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are also expected through the day across portions of
the Southeast.

...Synopsis...
An unseasonably strong upper wave is noted in overnight water-vapor
imagery lifting to the northeast across the New England region. In
its wake, a broad northwesterly flow regime is in place from the
Pacific Northwest to the southeastern states. Several disturbances
are embedded within this mean flow regime from the High Plains into
the northern Great Basin. These disturbances are expected to
propagate to the southeast over the next 24 hours, and will be the
impetus for severe weather potential for the High Plains and
Southeast.

...Central Plains/High Plains...
The upper wave over the northern Great Basin is forecast to move
into the central Rockies by 00-06 UTC this evening. As this occurs,
modest lee troughing will support southeasterly return flow, which
should allow for air mass recovery in the wake of early morning
convection. The combination of southeasterly low-level flow under
40-50 knot zonal flow aloft will yield nearly-straight hodographs
featuring strong deep-layer shear (on the order of 50 knots). This
zonal flow will foster eastward advection of steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates sampled upstream by 00 UTC soundings, which when combined with
low-level moistening, will result in MLCAPE values near 2500-3000
J/kg by late afternoon.

Initially discrete cells are expected to develop within the upslope
flow regime across northeast CO to southeast WY and the NE
Panhandle. Given the aforementioned thermodynamic/kinematic
environment, splitting supercells appear likely. These will pose a
threat for very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) and a tornado or
two, as cells migrate into improving low-level moisture across
northwest KS. Consolidating outflow from storm interactions should
foster gradual upscale growth by late evening. Lift associated with
the ejection of the upper wave and a strengthening low-level jet
will aid in MCS organization overnight across KS with an attendant
severe wind risk.

...Southeast...
A convectively reinforced MCV is forecast to emanate from the
southern Plains into the lower MS River Valley and Southeast today.
One or more thunderstorm clusters associated with this feature will
likely be elevated at the start of the forecast period, posing a
severe hail risk across AR/northern LA. The convective threat will
transition to a damaging wind threat by late morning and early
afternoon across central MS/southern AL, where temperatures are
forecast to reach the low to mid 90s along and south of a residual
outflow boundary/cold front. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with
the MCV should provide adequate deep-layer shear for organized
convection. While a few semi-discrete cells are possible, one or
more organized clusters/lines appear probable as the system moves
into southern GA/north FL by late afternoon/early evening.

...New England...
A secondary surface low associated with the northeastern upper wave
is expected to meander northeast through the New England region
during peak daytime heating. Warming surface temperatures should be
adequate to support surface-based convection, and effective SRH on
the order of 100 m2/s2 in the vicinity of the low may allow for a
few transient mesocyclones with an attendant tornado threat.
However, this potential will be conditional on sufficient low-level
heating, which is uncertain given lingering precipitation and cloud
cover.

..Moore/Jewell.. 08/08/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130818
SWODY1
SPC AC 130817

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND INTO THE
OZARKS VICINITY...

CORRECTED FOR DAY IN TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday from portions of the
southern and central Plains into the Middle Mississippi, Lower Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys.

...Synopsis...
Ridging aloft will prevail over the western U.S. today, as well as
over the south-central and southeastern states. Meanwhile, a rather
vigorous mid-level short-wave trough will advance southeastward
across the northern and central Plains through the day, and into the
Upper Midwest overnight.

At the surface, an evolving cold front is forecast to progress
southeastward across the northern and central Plains. By sunset,
the front should extend south-southeastward from a weak low over the
eastern South Dakota vicinity to the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.
Meanwhile, a weak warm front should extend southeastward across
Missouri and into the Tennessee Valley area. Additionally, various
convective boundaries are forecast to reside over the
Kansas/Oklahoma/Missouri area. These surface features -- both
synoptic and convectively induced -- will contribute to the
likelihood for multiple rounds of convective activity through the
period, from the central Plains vicinity to the Mid
Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valley areas.

...Mid Missouri Valley to the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, and
eastward to the Tennessee/Kentucky vicinity...
A rather complex convective scenario is evident for today across the
primary risk area that extends from the Plains to western fringes of
the Appalachians. Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of
the period across portions of the Plains and possibly into the
Ozarks area. The storms should continue through the day, moving
eastward with time, reinforcing the various convective boundaries
across this area.

As daytime heating occurs on the periphery of these boundaries, and
along/ahead of the advancing cold front, additional storm
development is expected. Given the belt of generally 35 to 45 kt
mid-level westerlies atop the region, shear will be sufficient to
support potential for strong/locally severe storms, with hail and
locally damaging wind gusts the primary risks. Delineating any
potential area of more concentrated severe risk remains difficult at
this time, but one area where greater severe-weather coverage may
manifest is across the Ozarks vicinity. Along with a warm front
expected to lie across Missouri, a roughly west-to-east outflow
boundary may evolve -- and possibly become the effective focus for
multiple rounds of storms. With a corridor of enhanced (40 to 50
kt) west-southwesterly flow expected to lie atop this region,
episodic strong/damaging gusts are expected, which warrants
inclusion of 30% wind probability/ENH risk across this region. In
addition, with backed low-level flow expected to the cool side of
the aforementioned boundaries, corridors of enhanced low-level
veering/shear suggests potential for a few tornadoes.

Risk will likely continue through the evening and into the overnight
hours, as additional storms associated with the southeastward cold
frontal advance evolve/spread southward and eastward into early
Monday morning.

...New England...
Modest low-level moisture is expected to remain in place ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. As diurnal heating peaks through the
afternoon, mid-layer CAPE around 1500 J/kg is expected to evolve,
supporting widely scattered afternoon storm development. With
mid-level westerlies around 40 kt expected across the area, shear
sufficient for organized storms suggests marginal hail and locally strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible with a few of the
strongest storms, before convection weakens into the early evening
hours.

..Goss/Lyons.. 08/13/2023

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 072013
SWODY1
SPC AC 072012

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

CORRECTED THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms -- some capable of producing locally damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail -- will continue across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic region and into New England into this evening.

...Discussion...
Current expectations with regard to the convective scenario through
tomorrow morning remain in line with prior reasoning. As such,
aside from minor line adjustments, the overall forecast will remain
unchanged with this outlook update.

..Goss.. 09/07/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level high, centered over the southeastern New Mexico
vicinity, appears likely to remain prominent through this period,
with large-scale ridging building to its north, through much of the
Rockies and adjacent Great Plains today through tonight.
Downstream, several perturbations, comprising weak but amplifying
larger-scale mid-level troughing east of the Mississippi Valley, are
forecast to remain generally progressive, though mid-level ridging
may continue to build near/east of the middle and northern Atlantic
Seaboard, in the wake of a modest cyclone migrating eastward across
portions of the Canadian Maritimes.

The two more significant perturbations include a remnant mid-level
trough forecast to slowly accelerate northeast of the lower Great
Lakes region through southern Ontario and Quebec, and a weak
developing mid-level low forecast to dig south-southeast of the
lower Ohio Valley through Alabama/Georgia by 12Z Friday. East of
these features, and ahead of a cold front which has already advanced
into the Appalachians vicinity (while stalling across parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley into southern Great Plains), deep-layer
southerly mean flow and shear will likely remain mostly rather
modest to weak (less than 20 kt). However, models do suggest that a
more subtle perturbation migrating north-northeast of the Blue Ridge
might contribute to a belt of modest south-southwesterly mid-level
flow along the western periphery of the building ridge, with at
least some signal that this could also become convectively augmented
by tonight.

...Atlantic Seaboard...
Seasonably moist air, beneath relatively steep
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, likely will contribute to
sizable mixed-layer CAPE to the east of developing surface troughing
to the lee of the Appalachians. This could become supportive of
developing clusters of storms with potential to produce strong wind
gusts, as convection initiates and slowly propagates off the higher
terrain this afternoon. The most prominent and concentrated area of thunderstorm development still appears likely to be focused with the increasingly sheared short wave impulse and modestly strengthening
southerly mid-level flow (30+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer) across
eastern Pennsylvania and New York, and adjacent portions of the Mid
Atlantic and New England, through early evening. This may include
an upscale growing, and gradually organizing, thunderstorm cluster
or two which may eventually pose a risk of producing a swath of
strong to severe surface gusts.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity...
Destabilization associated with a corridor of strong pre-frontal
daytime heating may become sufficient for thunderstorms capable of
producing damaging wind gusts, perhaps aided by modest deep-layer
shear near the leading edge of strengthening north-northwesterly
mid/upper flow.

...Southern Great Plains...
Potential for sustained convective development within a very warm
and deeply mixed boundary across the Texas Panhandle into western
Oklahoma late this afternoon remains uncertain. However, to the
east of the lee surface trough, warm advection and lift associated
with a nocturnal strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet
will pose better potential for thunderstorm development across
northern/eastern Oklahoma tonight. It is possible that elevated
instability and unsaturated sub-cloud air may be sufficient to
contribute to potential for hail and gusty surface winds with some
of this activity.

...Northern Great Plains...
Models suggest that daytime heating may contribute to a deep mixed
boundary layer with modest CAPE, along and south of a developing
zone of stronger differential surface heating, southeast of the
Black Hills into central Nebraska. Aided by forcing for ascent
associated with a short wave digging around the northeastern
periphery of the building larger-scale ridging, isolated strong
thunderstorm development posing a risk for producing strong surface
gusts is possible for a period late this afternoon and evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 171948
SWODY1
SPC AC 171946

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2023

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible
through tonight across coastal North Carolina and the Outer Banks.

...20z Update...

A damaging wind and tornado risk will continue into the evening
across the North Carolina coast and Outer Banks. A few stronger
cells interacting with the baroclinic zone along the coast have
shown rotation, with a possible tornado observed via radar earlier
this afternoon near the SC/NC border. While cloud cover, widespread precipitation and poor lapse rates will limit instability, strong
low-level vertical wind profiles will remain favorable for damaging
gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The only change with the 20z update
was to trim severe probabilities from most of South Carolina in the
wake of the surface low and primary surface trough. General thunder
was also removed on the western periphery of the outlook area,
mainly from GA and upstate SC.

..Leitman.. 12/17/2023

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/

...Discussion...
Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to
steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight.
At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low
will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the
daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal
North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight.

North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing,
which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer
inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably
strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of
the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just
offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing
potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland
across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston.
While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their
inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface
across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina --
and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the
Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly
locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current
delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina
for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer
Banks area for this evening and overnight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130056
SWODY1
SPC AC 130055

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
TN/NORTHEAST GA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY REFERENCE IN TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible,
primarily across the coastal Carolinas overnight.

...01Z Update...

...Eastern TN/Northeast GA through the Carolinas...
A strongly forced, shallow convective line continues to push
eastward across eastern TN and western GA, forced by strong ascent
attendant to the eastward-moving shortwave currently over the
Mid-South. This line is forecast to continue eastward this evening
and overnight, moving across Carolinas and offshore by early
Tuesday. Buoyancy ahead of the line will remain limited, but a few
convectively augmented gusts are still possible across this region
this evening and overnight

Current surface observation place the 60 deg F dewpoints over
southern GA. There is some potential for this better low-level
moisture to advect northward into the coastal portions of the
Carolinas, augmented by some advection off the Atlantic as well.
This could help foster modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching
convective line, contributing to a greater chance for deeper
updrafts and near-surface-based storms capable of a few damaging
gusts and maybe even a brief tornado.

..Mosier.. 02/13/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 221419
SWODY1
SPC AC 221418

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0818 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH REGION...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce marginally severe gusts or hail this
afternoon and evening over parts of the Mid-South region.

...Synopsis...
In the mean, mid/upper-level pattern amplification should begin
again during this period, as ridging builds over NV, the Pacific
Coast States and interior Northwest. Downstream, a series of
shortwaves will contribute to substantial synoptic-scale height
falls over much of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to the central
Gulf Coast. None of those perturbations -- including some apparent
in moisture-channel imagery over OK, northern KS/NE, and western CO
-- are (or will become) particularly intense, but should contribute
to at least weak large-scale destabilization aloft and maintenance
or strengthening of cyclonic flow.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front extending from a
low over southeastern ON across northern IN, through weak lows over
central MO and near TUL, then across northwest TX to southern NM.
The front should move eastward and southeastward today, to a 00Z
position over eastern/southern OH, the lowest Ohio Valley, eastern/
southern AR, and northeast to south-central TX. By 12Z, the front
should reach central NY, eastern PA, the southern Appalachians,
central parts of MS/LA, and shelf waters of the northwestern Gulf.

...Mid-South region...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
by late this afternoon along/ahead of the cold front, over central/
eastern AR and perhaps western TN. Activity should strengthen and
increase in coverage through evening as it encounters greater
moisture across the Mississippi Valley and into northern portions of
MS tonight. Some upscale organization into a short QLCS is possible
from early multicell to supercell modes. Marginally severe hail and
damaging gusts will be the main concerns.

The outlook area will reside on the southwestern rim of a far larger
swath of general thunderstorm potential, but with access to
sustained, effectively surface-based and at least marginally moist
inflow parcels beginning mid/late afternoon in AR and shifting east- southeastward with time. Progs that generate little substantial
convection generally are too cool at the surface. Forecast max
surface temperatures in the mid/upper 60s F over much of the area
will support favorable low-level lapse rates, as well as some
boundary-layer mixing, amidst potential for localized downward
momentum transfer from stronger flow aloft, for gust support.

Midlevel lapse rates are not expected to be very strong, limiting
MLCAPE to around 250-750 J/kg, and likely keeping the hail potential
isolated, marginal and conditional to supercell maturation.
Sufficient deep shear will exist for that, however, with modified
forecast soundings indicating around 40-45-kt effective-shear
magnitudes and 150-250 J/kg effective SRH -- despite prefrontal
veering with time of surface winds toward southwesterly. Greater
diurnal boundary-layer mixing/drying, EML-related CINH and weaker
CAPE will likely restrict severe potential around western parts of
the outlook, while instability decreases northward, moisture
decreases eastward, and lift weakens southward.

..Edwards.. 02/22/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030557
SWODY1
SPC AC 030555

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida
during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to
be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS
through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the
central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface
low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the
Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the
central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a
weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of
the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid Atlantic/Northeast.

...Florida...
Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop
during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from
seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level
environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations
and possibly near any other boundaries left over from
overnight/early-morning convection.

Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will
tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm
interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could
yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell.
With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb)
associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an
isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible,
though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very
weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale
growth.

..Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 042204
SWODY1
SPC AC 042203

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0403 PM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE
AREA FROM CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS INTO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon into tonight from parts of central Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley, as well as from the Ozarks into the Midwest.
Large hail is expected to be the main threat, but strong/gusty winds
and even a tornado may also occur.

...20Z Update...

...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL...
Recent surface analysis places a low just south of the IL/WI/IA
border intersection. A cold front extends southwestward from this
low across northern MO and eastern KS, while a warm front extends
eastward across northern IL and then arcs sharply northeastward over
southern Lake Michigan. A few elevated storms have been noted near
the surface low, with some deepening warm sector cumulus also
ongoing from central MO into northern/central IL. As mentioned in
MCD #0189, additional thunderstorm development is still expected
along and just ahead of cold front from far eastern IA into
northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri in the next 1-3 hours.
Front-parallel orientation to the deep-layer vertical shear will
likely lead to an undercutting of these storms, with a predominantly
elevated storm mode anticipated. Even so, steep lapse rates will
support some stronger updrafts capable of hail. Some damaging gusts
are possible as well, particularly as cells interact with the cold
front.

...East TX/LA/Western MS this afternoon and evening...
Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing from East TX across
much of LA, supported by southwesterly flow aloft and resultant
warm-air advection. General expectation is for these storms to
gradually shift northeastward into more of western MS over time, in
tandem with the zone of most favorable warm-air advection. Modest
vertical shear remains favorable for transient supercell structures
and the threat for hail and damaging gusts.

...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley this evening and overnight...
Thunderstorm development along the front later this evening along
the from southern MO into eastern OK remains uncertain, given the
potential for warm mid-level temperatures and resulting capping.
Additionally, vertical shear will be modest, with a resultant
potential for the front to undercutting development. Even so, the
warm and moist low-levels combined with steep mid-level lapse rates
will support a conditional risk for severe hail.

..Mosier.. 03/04/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024/

...East TX/LA/Western MS Today...
Moderately strong southern-stream mid-level flow is present today
across the southern states, with several weak perturbations
affecting the area. A warm and moist surface air mass is in place
across east TX into LA, where dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s
will yield afternoon MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Weak low-level warm
advection is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm
development this morning through the afternoon as storms spread
eastward toward southwest MS. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for at
least transient supercell structures, but relatively weak low-level
winds suggest the main threats will be hail and gusty winds with the
strongest cells.

...Eastern IA/Northern MO/Northern IL...
A strong surface cold front is sagging southeastward across IA this
morning into a marginally moist and unstable air mass. All 12z
model guidance agrees on the development of showers and
thunderstorms along the front by early afternoon, although many
solutions suggest most of the activity will be behind the front and
slightly elevated. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and steep
mid-level lapse rates will promote hail in the stronger cores.
Storms that can form and persist ahead of the front would have some
marginal concern for gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado as
well.

...Eastern OK into Mid MS Valley...
Morning model guidance is quite diverse in the development of
thunderstorms across this region, with low confidence in any
particular area. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL area as a
conditional risk if storms can form - mainly due to unseasonably
warm and moist conditions and sufficient CAPE for some risk of hail.
However, considerably uncertainty exists.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071721
SWODY1
SPC AC 071720

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains
this afternoon into tonight.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today,
with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into
TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds
are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much
of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will
continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and
west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to
multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening.

...Central TX...
An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX.
The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will
likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong
flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail
possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete
nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly
low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining
storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of
damaging wind gusts.

...Western/Central OK...
Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse
dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may
produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear
structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and
damaging winds possible.

...Southeast KS/Southwest MO...
Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid
afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a
surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This
zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support
supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours
through early evening.

..Hart.. 03/07/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121645
SWODY1
SPC AC 121643

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA
TO WESTERN MONTANA...

CORRECTED TO REMOVE LESS THAN 2% TORNADO TEXT FROM THE PROBABILITY
GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms
over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana
late this afternoon and early evening.

...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England...
Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the
Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward
across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A
lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the
region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low
crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak
insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible
satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As
a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across
this area.

With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but
strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and
potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak
tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may
approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or
line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a
portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England.
For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429.

...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana...
Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with
degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across
this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely
by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop.

With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few
stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep
well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty
downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the
sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This
warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening.

...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region...
Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH
Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North
Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms
expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this
afternoon.

The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures
accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader
cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should
remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the
surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting
in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger
convective elements.

..Goss/Bentley.. 04/12/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261644
SWODY1
SPC AC 261642

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERROR

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated
very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind
damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from
northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into western Missouri, eastern
Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas.

...NE/IA/MO/KS...
Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across
KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over
central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A
corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline
over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to
moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by
mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles
will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with
very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress
eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening.
A strong tornado or two is possible in this region.

...OK/MO/AR...
A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened
and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture
occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper
60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK.
Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and
favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of
all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes.
Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR
this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but
parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given
the conditional risk of significant severe weather.

...Northeast TX...
A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts
of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of
severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco,
TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the
afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX.
Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with
sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell
structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given
the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also
upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH.

..Hart.. 04/26/2024

$$

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