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ACUS11 KWNS 131848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131848=20
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-132015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Central and northeast Illinois and far northwest
Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131848Z - 132015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe storm is possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A pocket of cloud breaks and slightly higher low-level
moisture across Illinois has resulted in a region of weak
instability across central and northeastern Illinois. The KILX VWP
has shown strengthening flow in the 1 to 2 km layer in the last 1-2
hours which has strengthened the low-level shear. However, deep
layer shear is still only around 30 knots. Therefore, some brief
storm organization is possible with the potential for some large
hail, damaging wind, or possibly a tornado. However, a more
organized threat appears unlikely and therefore, no watch is
anticipated.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p488w6xR4wOjeKXleinGzDoYiOGCXkRxwpsn8x_4k6MOkedNljSga84xtXrMUlUVf7GeWKa5$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 40148743 39808812 39638865 39698936 39938979 40219000
40329000 41518924 42218890 42498792 41968707 41328694
40148743=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 051020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051019=20
INZ000-ILZ000-051145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...southeast IL...southwest into central IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051019Z - 051145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms primarily
capable of damaging gusts (55-70 mph) are possible this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a linear cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms over southern IL early this morning and embedded
within a 60-kt LLJ. Surface observations over southwest into
central IN indicate temperatures are in the low-mid 70s degree F and
dewpoints are in the lower 60s. KMDH (Carbondale/Murphysboro, IL
ASOS) recently observed a 58-kt gust at 0945 UTC. The VADs at KVWX
and KIND show very strong southwesterly 0.5-2.0 km AGL flow (50-65
kt). RAP forecast soundings over the discussion area show around
1000 J/kg MUCAPE. The sufficient buoyancy and strength of the
low-level flow will probably support a continued risk for damaging
gusts into southeast IL/southwest IN and perhaps as far north into
central IN later this morning.

..Smith/Edwards.. 04/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Nzjt2Ql0LMM9-nQ7txnJXg-nZPdHJ0kr1lgeegy-1O6yaUeHM-PwfyHEHMN_-59NJGdaUt5U= YJSpkWunkd3aLp1iyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON 38088726 38068764 38268818 38638828 40408668 40558594
40308533 39688530 38088726=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 180826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180825=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-181000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS into western/central MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124...

Valid 180825Z - 181000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe/damaging wind threat has increased with a small
bow moving eastward. An isolated hail threat also continues. Local
watch extension (in area) is possible.

DISCUSSION...Mainly supercell structures over northeast KS have
evolved into a small bowing complex over the past hour or so. This
convection is approaching the Kansas City metro in the near term,
and should pose a continued severe/damaging wind threat. Gusts up to
around 70 mph may occur given the well organized nature of the bow,
even as low-level static stability attempts to hinder convective
downdrafts from reaching the surface. Isolated severe hail also
appears possible, as strong reflectivity aloft associated with an
embedded supercell persists on the southern flank of the bow. Given
a current eastward motion around 35-40 kt, a local extension in area
for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 124 to include more of western/central
MO may be needed. Still, the eastward extent of the severe threat
remain somewhat uncertain, as less MUCAPE is present farther east.
However, greater DCAPE is present into central MO, which may support
a continued severe wind threat through the early morning hours.

..Gleason.. 04/18/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8HR_RJJvT_x9S1du_AIVg8fnZq0xaW1zms8BiCcAW_eoa-eRga74j_beaYbN_lJrye7bEGua2= OgBLflGJL1zdFZtAZ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39179527 39529496 39829484 39739388 39209253 38579348
38619463 38909550 39179527=20


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