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ACUS11 KWNS 131732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131732=20
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and
Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 131732Z - 131930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Rapid destabilization is expected across portions of the
Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley

DISCUSSION...A stable airmass is currently in place across the lower
Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley in the wake of a morning MCV.
However, low-level moisture is expected to improve significantly
over the next several hours. The leading edge of richer Gulf
moisture can now be seen on visible satellite where the cu field is
expanding north across Mississippi and western Alabama.
Extrapolating northward movement of this better moisture and
northeastward movement of ongoing thunderstorm activities, it
appears better low-level moisture will arrive prior to the
convective line east of the Mississippi River and possibly slightly
west. Expect this better moisture to reach the Missouri bootheel
around 19-20Z, southern Illinois 20-21Z and southern Indiana around
22Z. MLCAPE is expected to increase to the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range
ahead of these storms which should be sufficiently unstable to not
only support a significant severe weather threat with the squall
line, but also potentially allow for some more discrete convection
to develop ahead of the line. In addition, surface winds are
expected to back across the warm sector as the upper-level trough
advances northeastward. Therefore, significant elongation of the
low-level hodographs is anticipated. Therefore, all severe weather
hazards are expected this afternoon/evening including the potential
for 75+ mph wind gusts and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. A
tornado watch will likely be issued in the next 1 to 2 hours.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vBObieB-nrD5jMAugPptcT3i9leDWO6PFXam9PasG1zhJFi25l5TUIyzUo51BDEPUVeZd8AZ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON 37278684 35518795 35048834 35058958 34999027 35039104
35359127 35769095 36179073 36729029 37738951 38688785
38628702 38058659 37278684=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 050827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050827=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023

Areas affected...central and northern IL...far northwest IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 050827Z - 051000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will probably spread into
central and northern IL from the west. A new severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed over IL.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a gradual intensification of storms
near and behind the cold front draped from southeast IA and arcing south-southwestward into central MO. The airmass ahead of this
thunderstorm activity is moist/unstable with mostly lower 70s deg F temperatures and lower 60s dewpoints. Around 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE
is objectively analyzed with the SPC Mesoanalysis data. Although
large-scale upper forcing for ascent will glance the region, the
frontal forcing will act to aid storm development as the
thunderstorms move generally east-northeast into IL early this
morning. Isolated large hail and localized damaging gusts are
possible with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Edwards.. 04/05/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_NkV4wuHeU2sLBpXiWHvSeXQv_7GjoMpjN18l5Q-uDJsow7_9mFzCbedvakHOCrFYkBO_fPg_= RP_AVZlWxdr9ezlNRs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 38698887 38468952 38689062 39249121 39899136 41898964
42208896 42258819 42098747 41598701 41088699 38698887=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 172224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172223=20
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-180000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern OH...western PA...and northern
WV

Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...123...

Valid 172223Z - 180000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122, 123 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW122 and WW123. Damaging
winds, hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible. A local
extension has been coordinated on the eastern edge of WW123.

DISCUSSION...As of 2215 UTC, regional radar analysis showed an
ongoing cluster of severe storms over east-central OH. A mixed mode
of line segments and supercellular elements has been noted with
storms thus far owing to moderate buoyancy and 45-50 kt of effective
shear. The environment downstream is less moist (low to mid 50s F
dewpoints), but steep low-level lapse rates and ~500 J/kg of MLCAPE
will continue to support storm organization into western PA and
northern WV. With the mixed mode and drier surface conditions,
damaging wind gusts appear the most likely. Though, long hodographs
suggest hail and a a couple of tornadoes will also remain possible
with the more persistent supercells.

Recent radar and hi-res model trends suggest the southern portions
of the ongoing cluster are most likely to maintain intensity over
the next couple of hours. Additional discrete development has also
been noted farther east ahead of these storms. Given the potential
for the severe risk to extend into western PA this evening, a local
extension of WW123 eastward has being coordinated.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/17/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7QyxVbvBRUpMKSDCtx_cXCOV1VyXzWV4M8d4biw5CTab4TB-wpBTHmbMAH58MoM9_V1A1NZqV= FzafuSD-kQdZExdnJ8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON 39507983 39168077 39128182 39248275 39428356 39668334
40128262 40778202 41218172 41588164 41878106 42048024
41987964 41887943 41787925 41657903 41047893 40517896
39937944 39507983=20


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