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ACUS11 KWNS 131549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131549=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131645-
Mesoscale Discussion 0474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022
Areas affected...portions of far northern AR...southern MO...and
southern IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 131549Z - 131645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing ahead of a developing QLCS
across southern MO into northern AR. A watch likely will be needed
soon downstream of this line of storms from southern MO into
southern IL and perhaps parts of northern AR.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms from south-central MO into far
north-central AR has increased in intensity and organization over
the past hour or so. While the downstream airmass continues to
recover from overnight/morning convection and instability remains
weak, a modest cold pool is likely aiding in better organization of
the developing QLCS. Some additional airmass recovery downstream of
the eastward-advancing line of storms is expected, and overall shear
profiles will support sustained organized convection.=20
Southwesterly flow increases rapidly with height across the MCD
area, with 850 mb winds near or greater than 50 kt. If stronger cold
pool development continues, a developing rear-inflow jet could
increase potential for more widespread damaging gusts. While
damaging wind potential appears to be the greater threat with this
activity, effective SRH near 200 m2/s2 amid favorable low-level
speed shear also will support a few mesovortex tornadoes within the
QLCS. A watch may be needed soon for portions of the MCD area.
..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/13/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oXtzy6olF6bO47pazLadti3mPnQSyae8PMjIRGtGPhSAUudqpVK77r_kzTMnUG65JJ_Ghspr$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 36379301 37149269 37809232 38169158 38439089 38549008
38528983 38438926 38198882 37878862 37598862 37368880
37038953 36639073 36249165 36039217 36029261 36189296
36379301=20
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