• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0466

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 13, 2022 02:38:58
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130238
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130238=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-130445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0466
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0938 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

    Areas affected...Much of central/southwestern Iowa...northwestern
    Missouri and northeastern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115...

    Valid 130238Z - 130445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A squall line likely will continue into, across and east
    of the Interstate 35 corridor of central Iowa through 11 PM-1 AM,
    with severe wind gusts the primary potential severe hazard.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous surging convective outflows and embedded
    low-level circulations have developed within the evolving
    pre-frontal squall line. Across western Iowa, particularly
    near/north of the Interstate 80 corridor, activity appears to be
    accelerating eastward now in excess of 30 kt, and the squall line
    will probably overspread much of central Iowa by 04-06Z. In the
    wake of a lead mid-level perturbation/jet streak now shifting into Minnesota/Wisconsin, it appears that the strong southerly low-level
    flow (including 50-60+ kt around 850 mb) will tend to veer to a more southwesterly component, and low-level hodographs ahead of the line
    will tend to become more linear.=20=20

    With near surface thermodynamic profiles ahead of the line still
    characterized by 10-15 degree temp/dew point spreads due to daytime
    mixing, the primary severe hazard with this activity has probably
    been locally damaging wind gusts associated with the circulations.=20
    This is expected to remain the case as the low-level hodographs
    trend more linear, but it is still possible that strong surface
    gusts could become a bit more widespread before activity weakens
    later tonight.

    ..Kerr.. 04/13/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oBI0Rz4j18ddKuYfCB4IIuFk949V0IfFjXKIB4lERr3o0mRc0Jxrz3rQPpeMgzsKWjpZCDpJ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39739616 42059447 43169321 42479179 40729280 39669513
    39739616=20



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 05, 2023 01:04:06
    ACUS11 KWNS 050104
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050103=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-050230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0466
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0803 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023

    Areas affected...portions of far southeast Minnesota...far northeast Iowa...southwestern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117...

    Valid 050103Z - 050230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 117
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch #117. Large hail appears to be the main threat this evening
    and overnight.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular and transient supercell
    thunderstorms have developed across Severe Thunderstorm Watch #117
    over the past few hours. So far, most of the reported hail has been
    sub-severe, as also suggested by the last couple hours of MRMS
    mosaic MESH data. These storms are elevated and are benefiting from
    500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, driven primarily by 8 C/km mid-level lapse
    rates (shown by the 00Z mesoanalysis). Given the steep lapse rates
    in place, hail (some stones reaching severe limits) should remain a
    concern over the next few hours.

    ..Squitieri.. 04/05/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9olwdX58t2u_2aaXC8M0ub69JG7UiG6UGUPTZMjNOl5zP63MDDSDFNMdIXIufW3a_xaVmn6K_= QGfKOlfpwknt_YQCUE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43919222 44099126 44169027 43968941 43158897 42598918
    42489046 42549165 42569228 42799266 43919222=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 16, 2024 23:13:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 162313
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162312=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-170015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0466
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0612 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

    Areas affected...portions of north-central iow and southern
    Minnesota.

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 117...118...

    Valid 162312Z - 170015Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 117, 118 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe risk over tornado Watch 118 may continue for
    another 1-2 hours. Some redevelopment along the dryline is possible
    with a risk for an isolated tornado and hail.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms over eastern IA have pushed east of the
    dryline allowing for clearing over parts of north-central IA and far
    southern MN. Some air mass recovery is possible in the next 1-2
    hours with strong mid-level ascent overspreading the area. Upper 50s
    to low 60s F surface dewpoints are supporting 500-1000 J/kg of
    MUCAPE with strong mid and low-level shear profiles in place.
    Renewed development has recently taken place near the IA/MN border
    suggesting some redevelopment is possible. The main threats would be
    an isolated tornado or hail with any storms able to become
    established. Confidence is not high given the degree of convective
    overturning that has taken place. However, the severe risk may
    continue for another hour or two.

    ..Lyons.. 04/16/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-2OxLmI_TUr5y9mDP3h3kQxQeU0HCTSjjYUYaCrCMxDp0qE72wfK72d6QahrnXnsqkj12-G7v= nXrkb7LzhB8sySmsYQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 43789405 43669258 43399215 43049192 42639186 41959210
    41699236 41539273 41669298 42039315 42469348 43049415
    43389534 43559548 43709531 43789475 43789405=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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